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I was talking to Nick yesterday about the current market conditions, and how home sale have been affected by the low mortgage rates recently.

You can see in the graph above that over the last five years we’ve been accustomed to rates in the threes, so it seemed obvious that when rates almost hit 5% that a market slowdown was in order.

Likewise, wouldn’t sales pick up as rates came back down?

But interestingly, in another statistical quirk, sales this year are the same as last year:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, August 15th – October 15th

Year
# of Sales
Avg $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
Sept 30yr Rate
2016
579
$517/sf
$1,199,000
28
3.46%
2017
528
$542/sf
$1,225,000
26
3.81%
2018
484
$570/sf
$1,330,000
26
4.63%
2019
484
$604/sf
$1,387,500
27
3.61%

Last year when sales were plunging 8% (again), it was easy to blame it on the higher rates. But as rates settled down this year, the best we can say is that sales have flattened out.

Reasons:

  1. Higher pricing is offsetting the lower rates.
  2. Buyers expect rates in the threes. Rates would have to get into the 2s to create a surge now.
  3. Not many homes for sale provide a compelling value to buyers (either the house or price is wrong).

The lower rates this year have provided that mythical soft landing that no one thought was possible. It is giving sellers and agents a sense of security that higher prices are supportable. But wouldn’t rates have to keep going down further for prices to go any higher?

If rates and pricing stayed about the same, the market should plateau along.

But can sellers resist adding that extra 5% on top of the last sale comp?  Probably not.

We’ll need an Election Year Miracle for prices to keep rising in 2020!

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