“Fundamentals Still Look Strong”

by | Jul 26, 2013 | Market Conditions

John Burns is a local favorite, and he and his team are known to be one of the best, and most accurate, real estate consulting firms in the business.

His latest article at businessinsider.com on the impact of investors:

During the downturn and early stages of recovery, we were huge proponents of  investors taking advantage of overcorrected home prices to make great  investments while also helping the housing market recover. Mission accomplished.

 We are now concerned that investor momentum has swung too far in the other direction.

Read more:  http://www.businessinsider.com/housing-investors-now-a-concerns-2013-7#ixzz2aAH0wBrp

Rest of the Year, Part 2

by | Jul 25, 2013 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

You can see why the frenzy took off last summer – it was the perfect combination of low inventory, prices, and rates:

Year
New Listings May 1 – July 15
Avg LP $/sf
Avg 30Y Rate, Mid-July
2009
1,207
$511/sf
5.14%
2010
1,322
$506/sf
4.56%
2011
1,277
$445/sf
4.51%
2012
1,035
$438/sf
3.53%
2013
1,200
$527/sf
4.37%

While today’s combo is still attractive, the additional new listings, higher rates, and much-higher pricing should bring second-half sales back down to the 1,200-1,300 range like we’ve had in previous years:

NSDCC Detached Sales, Second-Half

Year
# of 2H Sales
Solds LP Avg. $/sf
Solds SP Avg. $/sf
2009
1,324
$420/sf
$393/sf
2010
1,229
$403/sf
$378/sf
2011
1,281
$403/sf
$376/sf
2012
1,676
$409/sf
$387/sf

While the average pricing has increased, statistically it is prone to bouncing around. Here are the monthly averages for closed NSDCC detached sales, and note that so far this month the average is back to $425/sf:

graph (35)

The frenzy lasted about 10 months – I hope you enjoyed it!

Inventory/Sales Rest of the Year

by | Jul 25, 2013 | Forecasts, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Yesterday this joker was talking his book on cnbc.com, and said:

  • We’re in a 3, 4, or 5-year recovery
  • They expect no impact on sales from the recent rate bump,
  • Inventory is 5.2, going to 6.0 next year (normal), and
  • NAR thinks home prices will go up 9% to 10% the rest of 2013.

For those who prefer local data, here are the new-listing counts of NSDCC detached homes inputted onto the MLS between Jan. 1 and July 15:

Year
REO
SS
Non-REO/SS
%Distressed
2010
122
266
2,853
12.4%
2011
120
288
2,855
12.5%
2012
97
236
2,386
12.2%
2013
36
70
2,914
3.5%

Will NAR be right that prices go up 9%-10% the rest of the year? Maybe on a national level as the rest of the country catches up.

But locally we can expect few, if any, REO or short-sale listings the rest of the year, so sales will be dependent on the traditional sellers – who have been pouring it on this year.

There seems to be a direct relationship between inventory & sales. With the less-motivated traditional sellers already having more listings this year than any of the previous three years, sales should drop considerably the rest of the year, down to 2010 or 2011 levels (more on this later):

graph (34)

No-Pay Preferred?

by | Jul 24, 2013 | Loan Mods | 2 comments

Another hat tip to daytrip for sending this in from cnnmoney:

Nearly 1.2 million mortgage modifications have been completed since the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) was first launched four years ago.

Yet more than 306,000 borrowers have re-defaulted on their loans and more than 88,000 are at risk of following suit, the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP) found in its quarterly report to Congress.

In addition, the watchdog found that the longer a homeowner stays in the HAMP modification program, the more likely they are to default. Those who have been in the program since 2009, are re-defaulting at a rate of 46%, the inspector general found.

Read full article here:

http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/24/real_estate/hamp-default/index.html

Too Little, Too Late

by | Jul 24, 2013 | Listing Agent Practices, The Future | 4 comments

NAR is finally getting around to wondering if they should do something with realtor.com, and start competing with those pesky upstarts Zillow and Trulia – in fact, they’ve called a special meeting!

http://www.inman.com/2013/07/23/will-nar-let-realtor-com-soar/

Todd outlined the challenge in this excellent report:

http://realtynex.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Why-Online-Consumers-Love-Zillow-and-Trulia.pdf

His summary:

For those companies that insist on nothing less than absolute victory over Zillow and Trulia, all the competencies in this report will need to be addressed. To do this, an internal, full-time team of highly talented software engineers will need to be employed, a commitment to quarterly releases of new web and mobile software will need to be made, and a strategy shift that moves away from playing by traditional REALTOR® rules will have to be made.

Winning a “war” against Zillow and Trulia is going to be tough. However, strategic coexistence is an viable path toward success as well. The Houston Association of REALTORS® is an excellent model for this strategy. While syndicating data to Zillow and Trulia, their partnership with the portals also delivers large amounts of traffic back to HAR.com.

The Association’s ultimate goal is deliver value to their members, not to crush their competition.

By working with the portals instead of against them, HAR has built one of the few real estate portals that outranks Zillow and Trulia inlocal web traffic. Another option for companies wishing to better compete with Zillow and Trulia could be to partner with these to portals, trading data and agent access for white label versions of their web-based and mobile applications.

Finally, before implementing a strategy for victory over Zillow and Trulia, consider how they migh react to such a ploy and the other issues that might arise from such action. Will they join forces with your competitors? Will they make moves that diminish the value of the MLS? Is a technological “cold war” something for which your company is prepared?

True “victory” over Zillow and Trulia may not involve a technology play.

Perhaps it will come from reevaluating the real estate professional’s highest value proposition to a consumer and focusing more effort on communicating that value to the public at large. In any case, it’s time to get to work.

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