Yesterday this joker was talking his book on cnbc.com, and said:

  • We’re in a 3, 4, or 5-year recovery
  • They expect no impact on sales from the recent rate bump,
  • Inventory is 5.2, going to 6.0 next year (normal), and
  • NAR thinks home prices will go up 9% to 10% the rest of 2013.

For those who prefer local data, here are the new-listing counts of NSDCC detached homes inputted onto the MLS between Jan. 1 and July 15:

Year
REO
SS
Non-REO/SS
%Distressed
2010
122
266
2,853
12.4%
2011
120
288
2,855
12.5%
2012
97
236
2,386
12.2%
2013
36
70
2,914
3.5%

Will NAR be right that prices go up 9%-10% the rest of the year? Maybe on a national level as the rest of the country catches up.

But locally we can expect few, if any, REO or short-sale listings the rest of the year, so sales will be dependent on the traditional sellers – who have been pouring it on this year.

There seems to be a direct relationship between inventory & sales. With the less-motivated traditional sellers already having more listings this year than any of the previous three years, sales should drop considerably the rest of the year, down to 2010 or 2011 levels (more on this later):

graph (34)

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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