Yesterday this joker was talking his book on cnbc.com, and said:
- We’re in a 3, 4, or 5-year recovery
- They expect no impact on sales from the recent rate bump,
- Inventory is 5.2, going to 6.0 next year (normal), and
- NAR thinks home prices will go up 9% to 10% the rest of 2013.
For those who prefer local data, here are the new-listing counts of NSDCC detached homes inputted onto the MLS between Jan. 1 and July 15:
| Year | ||||
| 2010 | ||||
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 | ||||
| 2013 |
Will NAR be right that prices go up 9%-10% the rest of the year? Maybe on a national level as the rest of the country catches up.
But locally we can expect few, if any, REO or short-sale listings the rest of the year, so sales will be dependent on the traditional sellers – who have been pouring it on this year.
There seems to be a direct relationship between inventory & sales. With the less-motivated traditional sellers already having more listings this year than any of the previous three years, sales should drop considerably the rest of the year, down to 2010 or 2011 levels (more on this later):
Probably nationwide they’re close as far as price.
Local I kind of think in coastal SD we kind of hit a plateau for a while (price wise).
(Maybe some small seasonal changes but nothing major unless some bigger picture issue comes up “like interest rates spiking or something”).
Maybe sales will decline (there are still a heck of a lot of people underwater, or under where they purchased so they are going nowhere until they are above purchase).
What about the weakening of Prop 13? There is a supermajority right now in the State legistlature and Senate that could ovet turn it.