There is no correlation drawn here between foreclosure flood and the history of rising prices. Given his data, there SHOULD be a foreclosure flood to put banks in a position to profit if history repeats! Fromdsnews.com:
Investors who are eagerly waiting for bargain prices from the potential foreclosure flood are likely waiting for something that won’t happen, according to the September home value forecast report from Pro Teck Valuation Services.
In the report, the company explained why it believes there will be no such flood.
“With regard to the U.S. foreclosure inventory, there has been a misperception that it is a problem for the entire market. In fact, it is quite concentrated in specific cities and neighborhoods,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “For this reason, potential buyers who have been waiting for bargain prices in desirable neighborhoods may be disappointed.”
Instead, the report focused on the current lack of inventory in San Diego, Orange County, and Los Angeles. Overall, Pro Teck found that all three areas have less than 5 months of remaining inventory left.
“This is significant because in the Los Angeles market over the past 25 years, whenever this indicator was below five months, the median price increased by close to 19 percent the following year. Of course, it remains to be seen if the same appreciation happens again,” said O’Grady.
The report also analyzed price per square foot and months of remaining inventory in the three areas and found that the lowest priced areas have the lowest levels of inventory.
The report included a list of the 10 best and worst performing metros based on the company’s market condition ranking model. The list of the top performing markets is based on a several indicators, such as changes in sales, foreclosure sales, prices, and inventory.
The reported noted that one common characteristic of the top markets is they all have experienced significant declines in active listings over the past year.
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, California
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Washington San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, California
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, California
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, California
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas
Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas
New Haven-Milford, Connecticut
Bridgeport, Stamford, Norwalk, Connecticut
Augusta-Richmond County, Georgia-South Carolina
Rochester, New York
New York-White Plains-Wayne, New York-New Jersey
Edison, New Jersey
Nassau-Suffolk, New York
Newark-Union, New Jersey-Pennsylvania
On Wednesday it looked like the detached sales and pricing around NSDCC for September were lagging a bit behind last year’s numbers.
We had quite a flurry the last few days, plus there will be late-reporters adding to this month total below over the next couple of weeks. But we’ve already passed the sales count of September, 2011, and pricing jumped up too.
Here were the stats on Wednesday:
# of Sales
Sept ’12 (MTD)
Here they are today:
# of Sales
Sept ’12 (MTD)
The breakdown between the north and south portions of NSDCC is interesting too – the lower-end has really been cooking lately:
South-End of NSDCC (La Jolla, Del Mar, Solana Beach, CV, & RSF)
# of Sales
Sept ’12 (MTD)
North-End of NSDCC (Cardiff, Encinitas, and Carlsbad)
# of Sales
Sept ’12 (MTD)
Compare the month-over-month change (August-to-Septmeber) and look at the difference between north and south!
Pundits would say that the lower-end market benefits from the attractive rates, FHA, etc., or perhaps the increased sales could be due to the Carlsbad buyers finally getting their damaged credit back in shape, like that one LJ realtor suggested (???). More than anything, the stronger sales counts are caused by more sellers being willing to sell for what the market will bear.
This video shows an example of the case I would prepare on behalf of a buyer making an offer on a house in Bird Rock – it demonstrates the supporting data I would use to back-up my buyer’s offer price. You would think that this is standard practice for agents, but surprisingly, hardly any do it.
When I represent sellers, I would send comps with our counter-offer to support the seller’s price!
What’s the point? With the lack of comps, there is a 5% to 10% swing in price for any house. The final sales price is usually determined by which agent has the better powers of persuasion.
The Chelsea listing agent is a 30-year veteran of the business, yet she had only one closing this year – for $280,000 – before this one closed. I called her for an explanation as to why the sales price dropped to $975,000 from a list price of $1,185,000, and she said, “the sellers wanted to sell”.
We call that the “Ole close” – she just got out of the way. Get good help!
You may have noticed that the comment section has been turned off.
Since our local market has been fairly stable for the last three years, I think we have survived the worst of the bubble conditions, and it is time to move on.
From the beginning, my intention has been to inform buyers and sellers about the local market conditions, and demonstrate why I would be a good choice to be your realtor. I want to narrow the focus of this website to just those ideals.
Wouldn’t the comment section contribute? The comments are wide-ranging, and deserve full discussion – and there are other websites that provide a better format to explore all the angles. I am going to spend all of my time selling houses, and documenting the experience here so you can see what is happening on the street. The twitter account will track the general real estate topics.
I read each of the comments as they came in, and think that they were invaluable in getting us through the bubble years. I am grateful for your participation and insight – thank you!
(The 84 in spam are 9-days-worth, and most were sent by the bots)
Buyers are competing with multiple offers on homes in a market with low interest rates, and are struggling with low inventory and little new construction, local experts said at a roundtable discussion hosted by the San Diego Association of Realtors.
“We hit a brand new 30-year low,” said Karen Bates of Military Home Programs. “Buyers are being cautious about giving their information today. But, with the time on the market and with the inventory today, I would strongly encourage buyers to get solid preapprovals and be ready to jump, because if they see a property and they wait even 24 hours to send their information in, then they’re going to have trouble being competitive at all.”
Six months of inventory is typical for a traditional market, said Alan Nevin, principal at The London Group. In San Diego County, inventory is down to less than 2 months in some areas — south of Highway 94 there is 1.3 months of inventory. The average days on the market is about 60 to 70 days in a more normal market, he said, and San Diego County is down to about 49 days on the market.
“It’s a tough market to buy a property in; it’s tough to find a good property when you cordon down the issues,” said Leonard Baron of LPB Services, LLC. “For buyers who want to buy real estate: Get preapproved, get your funds ready and when you find a property you really want you better chase it like crazy. That’s going to be your best chance to get a great property.”
The housing inventory is being further limited by little new construction. When the market was “hot,” Nevin said there were about 10,000 to 15,000 permits pulled for new construction. This year, there will be about 6,000 permits for single family and multi-family units combined, said Kelly Cunningham, economist and senior fellow at the National University System Institute for Policy Research.
Robert Vallera of Voit Real Estate Services said he expects to see a “significant” increase in multifamily construction going forward, but not enough to meet the growing demand for rental housing.
“When I look at single family, what I see basically on new construction is that most of it is in North County and homes selling for $600,000,” said Nevin.
Homes under $600,000 in all areas are seeing multiple offers, said Donna Sanfilippo, president of SDAR, because of the limited inventory.
Homes in the upper price range have more inventory, said John Altman of JT Altman & Associates.
“Right now, we’re in the very most unique move-up market,” said Altman. “The market below the $700,000 price range down there is very hot because of the lack of inventory. But if you go over $700,000, we have over six months of supply there. So you’re in a seller’s market here, and a buyer’s market there.”
The number of cash transactions was at almost 30 percent in the second quarter, said Altman, up from 25 percent in 2011.
“The number of cash transactions has increased this year even though prices are going up. We’re seeing less inventory at low, low prices but there’s a lot more competition there,” said Altman.
Vallera said he once though population drove demand for housing, but quickly discovered that employment drives demand for housing. San Diego added more than 30,000 jobs in the past year, said Cunningham, which he said is “pretty strong.”
“The number of people employed in July was the highest ever in San Diego’s history,” said Cunningham.
CR said that we will see some of this year’s pricing exuberance start to dwindle as we wrap up the year. If this month’s trend continues, it looks like it is already happening for NSDCC detached sales:
# of Sales
Sept ’12 (MTD)
We should catch up to previous Septembers in the sales category because there is always a flurry of closings the last few days of the month. But we could be facing a dip in pricing, which could put a bit of a chill in sales this Fall.
Population change, along with the migration patterns that shape it, are important indicators of fiscal and political health. Migration choices reveal an important truth: some states understand how to get richer, while others seem to have lost the touch. California is a state in the latter group, but it can be put back on track. All it takes is the political will.
A video tour of my new listing in the gated Santa Monica development near Santaluz.
This is the 5 br/4.5 ba, 4,659sf former model home with pool on an extra-large 11,956sf lot, and has upgrades galore – including an all-Viking stainless kitchen, den with custom built-ins, wine cellar, dual computer stations for study hall, and full theater room too! Price is $1,099,000:
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!