Latest SD Mortgage Frauds

From the U-T:

Located on a busy section of South Santa Fe Avenue in Vista, Aguilera’s Bookkeeping & Income Tax isn’t the kind of business that draws much attention.  It sits next to a hair salon and supply business, and across from an auto shop. The red paint on the three steps leading to the small office is chipped and flaking.

But federal prosecutors say the business was the center of a mortgage fraud scheme that churned out scores of bogus W-2 forms, fake pay stubs and false tax records for a network of almost two dozen real estate agents and loan officers.

The documents helped secure about $55 million in fraudulent loans from banks and mortgage companies between 2002 and 2008 to purchase homes in San Diego County and the San Francisco Bay Area, court records show.

This kind of fraud was rampant during the real estate boom days of a few years ago and peaked in San Diego County in 2006. But new government regulations and greater vigilance by burned lenders are helping to ease mortgage fraud schemes.

“In 2011 and 2012, we expect to see reports of fraud come down because a lot of the policies lenders have put in place are starting to work,” said Frank McKenna, vice president for fraud strategy at CoreLogic, a Santa Ana-based research firm that tracks fraud reported by lenders.

(more…)

More Coming and Going

Yesterday the WSJ included the report on last year’s success rate of sellers in seven selected counties (47% of those who listed their home, actually sold), but San Diego wasn’t included.

Let’s look at how North San Diego County Coastal detached homes have done recently.

New listings entered onto the MLS between July 1 and August 15

2008 – 682

2009 – 664

2010 – 768

Closed escrows between July 1 and August 15

2008 – 298 (avg. $450/sf)

2009 – 329 (avg. $378/sf)

2010 – 307 (avg. $372/sf)

Listings that expired, cancelled, or withdrew between July 1 and August 15

2008 – 349

2009 – 354

2010 – 425

For the most part, these are unrelated to each other, but exemplify the additional noise in 2010.  When you look at the Y-T-D numbers for Jan 1 to Aug 15, the picture looks better, which demonstrates how the market conditions have been slipping away lately:

Closed escrows between Jan 1 and August 15

2008 – 1,313 (at an average of $453/sf)

2009 – 1,227 (at an average of $390/sf)

2010 – 1,538 (at an average of $381/sf)

The Y-T-D sales appear to be up 25% year-over-year, in spite of a 7% dip over the last 45 days.  The market conditions are good enough that today’s homesellers have a great opportunity to drop their price significantly now, and find a buyer…..while most sellers are napping in the end-of-summer, Padres-are-in-first-place haze.

Many Will Be “Re-Evaluating”

From the WSJ:

Jeff Moorad, the lead owner of MLB’s San Diego Padres, has taken his home just outside Phoenix off the market. It was listed for $28 million in the fall.  

“We decided it was best to stay on the sidelines for the time being” after re-evaluating the market, says Mr. Moorad. The 55-year-old former sports agent, whose clients included Manny Ramirez and NFL quarterback Steve Young, says he built the majority of structures on the five-acre property.

The Paradise Valley, Ariz., property includes a single-story, seven-bedroom main house and a guest house that total about 16,000 square feet. There’s a basketball court, tennis court and a palm tree-lined pool. Mr. Moorad’s family partnership bought the property in 2005 for $9.43 million. Ownership was transferred to Mr. Moorad and his wife, Jan, in 2007 for $13 million.

Mr. Moorad, who was chief executive of the Arizona Diamondbacks, put the home on the market after he bought the Padres and moved to La Jolla, Calif. Bob Hassett of Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty had the listing. 

More photos here.

One Slice of Reality

The psycho-babble was flying today. 

First it was McMillin talking the party line like an NAR booster in an article in the U-T, saying it is a great time to buy or sell. 

Then HW features more ivory-tower guys talking about the market, entitling the article: Homebuyer Demand All But a ‘Standstill’, but I couldn’t find where they actually used the word standstill in the text.  Everyone speaking with great certainty as if they know what’s actually happening, and the MSM soaking it up like it’s factual – with editors applying liberal interpretations to sex up the effect.

Here’s a view from street-level:

Demo Follow-up

We’ve been gone over the weekend, and I’m a little short on videos. However, the follow-up to this youtube below is “in the can”, so by tomorrow afternoon we’ll have the ‘after’ version – here is a repeat of the ‘before’ version:

Down to $49.6 Million

Seller Exuberance

Sealed bids, live auction to follow

The Del Mar City Council voted 4-0, with Mayor Richard Earnest recused, to try to sell its no-longer used Balboa property to pay off the remaining debt on the sentimentally valued 5.3-acre Shores Park.

Escrow closed on the $8.5 million Shores property in 2008, with the city paying the Del Mar Union School District $5 million through fundraisers, and financing the other $3.5 million. A balloon payment of roughly $3.25 million is due on Nov. 13, 2011, and the city wants to avoid paying it off through the general fund. Staff reports that the Balboa property, a 22,000-square-foot parcel with sweeping ocean views purchased in 1965, is an idle asset that generates no income.

The fundraising group, Friends of the Shores, raised enough money to make payments on the loan, $300,000 annually, through fiscal year 2008-2009. The city has contributed $92,929 this year through the general fund. Government code allows cities to sell off property as long as it provides a public benefit.

Depending on how much the Balboa property sells for, the money could also be used to fund other projects, such as a new lifeguard tower and safety center. That project is also currently in the fundraising stage.

The council adopted a process that would aim to avoid the sentiment of a “fire sale” of the Balboa property. As such, the city will set a minimum price, from which interested parties will submit a bid. At some point, Del Mar will use those bids as a starting point for a live auction, with live bids required to up the sealed bids by at least 5 percent. Given the economic climate, the council reserved the right to pass on the sale if the offer is not satisfactory.

While most of the public speakers spoke out in favor of selling the Balboa property as a way to retire the debt on the Shores property, the city received two protest letters. That upped the requirement of at least a 4/5ths vote, which the council achieved with its 4-0 vote.

Jacqueline Winterer, who sent a letter and spoke to the council, cited concerns of property values being too low to justify selling the Balboa lot and asked why the council had changed its mind after expressing a similar sentiment at a June 2009 meeting. She suggested selling a piece of the Shores Park to pay off the remaining debt.

Councilmember Crystal Crawford, however, said she believes the Balboa parcel’s uniqueness and the market of potential buyers would keep the price high, despite the recession.

“This was one of those safety nets and turns out to be the one that we’ve opted to pursue at this point,” she said.  The council will later decide a minimum asking price, but did settle on a maximum $20,000 for a real estate consultant and a 2 percent commission for the buyer’s agent. Since the property must sell for at least $3.25 million to pay off the entire debt, 2 percent would come out to be at least $65,000 in commission.

EDIT: I think this example will end up surprising some of the old guard how the market has changed.  They think they can start the auction at $3.25 million?  Just because the City of DM has owned a prized parcel since the 1960s, doesn’t mean someone will pay what’s needed to pay off another debt.  Pricing your real estate based on what you need, rather than approximating what the market will bear, has proven to be a poor predictor of what a buyer will pay in this market.  The photo above shows a red house at the end of Balboa, but I’m still trying to track down the exact location (I think it’s a little further south, on the east side of the street).

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