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Category Archive: ‘Why You Should List With Jim’

Working the Plateau

SD trend

Buyers and sellers are aware that the market has been cooling off, though if you go by the soundbites, nobody seems to know why.

From Dr. Shiller this week:

“The market has been very strong since 2012. It’s up 27 percent since March of 2012. It’s been a huge boom,” Shiller said. “The question is what would end that boom? It might continue. This might be a little downward blip and it might continue going up, but you know, I kind of think it’s not going to go up a lot more—maybe 10 percent more—before a correction.”

Shiller said it’s clear something is worrying consumers, and he suggested that perhaps rising geopolitical tensions around the world may be to blame.

“It seems like optimism about housing is weakening,” he said. “Maybe the internationals, maybe all this talk about Ukraine has people rattled. You know, I’ve felt that in the past, that international news affects the housing market. I don’t have proof of that, but something is weighing on the consumers right now.”Meantime, a lack of credit has been a “festering problem” for the housing market, but “inevitable since had a banking crisis,” he said. Credit availability is “not going to correct soon.”

We’ve seen in recent years what motivates buyers to jump – rising prices and rising rates. But it looks like both prices and rates are going to be rangebound for the rest of the year, which will cause more head scratching.

The pundits view real estate like the stock market, and their focus is solely on the demand side – you never hear anybody question whether the home sellers are too optimistic.

It trickles down to the street too, where sellers and inexperienced agents sit on over-priced listings, and wonder what happened to the buyers. It doesn’t occur to them that they can fix their own troubles.

This is where a major break-through could happen if Zillow/Trulia – or anyone else with a national voice – could properly educate the marketplace.

If people embraced the mantra, “There’s Nothing Price Won’t Fix”, at least sellers and listing agents would be in reality. Currently they live in Fantasyland, thinking that they just need to wait longer.

Waiting did work over the last two years as the prices kept rising – eventually they caught up with those sellers who started too high.

But in a flat or slowly rising market, there’s no pressure on the buyers to jump. The chances of a lucky sale are greatly diminished because the long-sitters are only proving that their price is wrong – and it emboldens the buyers to be patient. Sellers can literally cause their own downturn.

The environment changes greatly when a market tops out. Buyers feel like they have waited this long, there’s not much more to lose by being patient now.

t-shirt

Posted by on Jul 31, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

JtR and Social Media

While we are at it, here’s another plug for my social-media outlets:

Facebook - Every bubbleinfo.com post gets uploaded here, but that’s about it.  If facebook is your thing, it might be easier to follow the blog here, but no comments though:

https://www.facebook.com/bubbleinfo/

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Bubbleinfo.com

Twitter – I love twitter and have 3,328 tweets, which is at least 1-2 per day.  You don’t even have to have a twitter account – you can follow them here at the blog in the right-hand column.  I usually include my synopsis in the first sentence – if it looks intriguing, click on the link for more.

My goal is to publish today’s current events in real estate – if you like maximum data input, watch the right-hand column, or click here to follow:

https://twitter.com/Bubbleinfo

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bubbleinfo mobile app

Bubbleinfo Mobile App – I think it works OK, though not many people are using it yet.  You can find it at the App Store or Google Play.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bubbleinfo/id836149128?mt=8

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mobiloud.android.bubbleinfo

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Jim the Realtor/Bubbleinfo Youtube account - A complete audio/visual history of the local bust and boom that started when I began receiving REO listings from Bank of America in April, 2008. There are over 1,700 videos with 2,037,056 views – thanks for the support!

https://www.youtube.com/user/JimtheRealtor

This is recognized as the first video I did myself – it has 10,133 views:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neY1P7UvNHw

The 1,091 subscribers get an occasional video that doesn’t make the blog, like this one:

http://youtu.be/UGMa4RoXnNU

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The Pinterest account doesn’t get constant attention, but it has a decent foundation of real estate-related stuff.  There are 1,359 pins on 32 boards:

http://www.pinterest.com/klingerealty/

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Instagram - I haven’t got around to Instagram yet, though Kayla should put some attention on it in the coming months.

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Thanks for participating – I’d love to assist you with your next move!

Posted by on Jul 23, 2014 in About the author, Drone, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Encinitas New Listing

willowspring

There is a chance that disruption could be upon us.

Reader Booty Juice said today said that since he bought his house 30 years ago, the transaction process hasn’t changed a bit.  It hasn’t – sellers still pay a full commission for two agents to figure out how to get to the finish line.

Is it possible that Zillow could make the MLS obsolete, and cause a sea change in how real estate is sold?

Let’s test it every chance we get.

I inputted a ‘Coming Soon’ listing this morning, and it has had 162 views in the first 12 hours - most of which were probably buyers, not agents.

The new Paragon MLS allegedly has a listing counter too.  I’m inputting the new listing now, and will try to track how many views happen through the MLS.  My guess is that Zillow views will exceed the MLS.

Here’s how it looks on video:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/357-Willowspring-Dr-N-Encinitas-CA-92024/16715502_zpid/

Open Tuesday 4-6pm, and Wednesday 10-12:30 and 4-6pm!

Posted by on Jun 30, 2014 in Bubbleinfo TV, Encinitas, Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 9 comments

They Ran Out of Excuses

The ‘analysts’ can’t blame the housing market on the cold winter any more.

The numbers look weak because you are comparing them to last year’s frenzy era (one of the hottest of all-time) plus sellers are asking too much!

From: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101767459

Widely watched measures of existing home sales and new home sales this week, as well as the latest release of the S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index, are expected to shed fresh light on the state of the housing market in America. And with the housing market appearing to lag the rest of the economy, that could have a big effect on where equities are heading.

“These housing numbers are the granddaddy of all numbers, if you ask me,” said Anthony Grisanti of GRZ Energy. “If these numbers do not come out good this week, you’re going to look at an S&P that’s going to be a lot weaker. … I don’t think the market or economy can sustain a few more months of weak housing.”

Read More

Posted by on Jun 23, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Why You Should List With Jim | 5 comments

10662 Canyon Lake, Scripps Ranch

My new listing on the westside of Scripps Ranch, where you are conveniently located just 5 minutes to schools and freeway, and can walk to coffee and grocery!  Open Saturday and Sunday, June 7 & 8 from noon to 3pm!

4 br/2 ba, 1,811 sf built in 1972 on a secluded 11,000sf lot for only $699,000:

2014-06-07 16.29.39

2014-06-07 15.17.07

Canyon lake

2014-06-08 13.49.12

One-story floor plan with tile roof, vinyl windows, renovated kitchen and baths, new scraped hardwood floors, double french doors, central A/C, high ceilings and open floor plan.  No HOA or Mello-Roos!  The house next door just sold for about the same money and this is superior – we want to sell now!

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10662-Canyon-Lake-Dr-San-Diego-CA-92131/16866617_zpid/

canyon lake map1

I will be there both days, and Kayla will join me on Sunday!

Posted by on Jun 6, 2014 in One-Story, Why You Should List With Jim | 3 comments

More on NSDCC May Sales

sales drop first

Here’s more data on last month’s detached-home sales around North SD County’s coastal region.

The new MLS doesn’t have the same statistics available, but for some reason it is crazy about reporting the sales volume everywhere, for which the average realtor has no use.

But comparing the sales volume does help show why this year feels so much different than last year for realtors, and others in the business whose income is based on a percentage.  Even though yesterday’s average pricing was up 13% year-over-year, the overall sales volume was down 33% from May, 2013:

NSDCC May Sales:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Total Sales Volume
2010
249
$800,000
$254,103,668
2011
243
$850,000
$276,818,522
2012
289
$821,000
$320,086,154
2013
362
$943,500
$441,162,967
2014
251
$950,000
$296,845,249

The market has shifted from distressed properties to a Make-Me-Move environment, which buyers were willing to endure last year when prices AND rates were substantially less.

The number of new listings this year is about 4% fewer than last year, but as you can tell by the drop in sales – it is different now.  Only the sellers who are willing to offer an attractive value are selling. Get good help!

Posted by on Jun 6, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Move-Up Tips

not for sale

Hat tip to Susie for sending this in from CNNMoney:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/20/real_estate/home-sales-fear/index.html?iid=s_mpm

An excerpt:

Tim Trampedach, a 36-year-old business owner who lives in San Francisco, has seen his home’s value soar from $1.2 million to $1.6 million in the past three years. He and his wife want to move into a bigger place, but there are simply no homes within their price range in their Portrero Hill neighborhood.

“My wife and I are effectively locked into the house,” he said. “We can’t sell because we can’t afford anything else nearby.”

They would probably struggle to buy their existing home at its current value of $1.6 million, let alone buy a more-expensive home that would make it worth it to move.  If you just bought at $1.2M, jumping up to $2,000,000 or more is a big stretch.

But if you can make the jump financially, then how do you pull it off?

Here are more excerpts from the article:

In fact, demand is so high that real estate agents are actively seeking people who are willing to sell. “You get letters in the mail asking if you’re interested in selling,” said Jackson. “People knock on your doors.”

In mid-April she got an enticing, unsolicited offer on the house, which Zillow estimates to be worth $420,000.

“My husband and I talked it over,” she said. “We hemmed and hawed. It was too good to be true, but we worried: Would we find a house we wanted?”

The buyer agreed to give the couple until October to find a new place, so they took the offer.

One way sellers can protect themselves is to make the sale of their home contingent upon their ability to find another one to move into.

Patrick Matson and his fiance, Margarita Munoz, insisted on such a clause when they put their Anaheim, Calif. home up for sale. Up until last Friday they had an offer on their home, but their own search did not go well.

The couple had made offers on two homes in La Mirada, where they liked the school district for their four-year-old son. But both offers were rejected.

The homes they looked at were between $430,000 and $480,000, but were no bigger or better than their current place, which they listed for $415,000.

Discouraged, the couple decided to reject the offer and take their home off the market.

“It was not an easy decision to make, provided that we knew the folks who had an offer in on our home were going to be disappointed and it wasn’t what we wanted either,” said Matson.

The couple plans to make some upgrades to their current place and will try again in a year or two, he said. “Hopefully the market won’t be so competitive by then.”

You have to be able to buy high enough to make it worth it – my rule of thumb is 50% higher than the old house - AND be able to convince the seller that you aren’t submitting an offer contingent upon finding a buyer for your old house.  Having your buyers do their inspection and appraisal and then release their contingencies would go a long way to making your offer look non-contingent.

You may have to help your buyer with some costs to get to that stage, but to pull it off the move-up, you have to make bold and decisive moves, work with a great agent, and hope for some luck!

Posted by on May 20, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Tips, Advice & Links, Why You Should List With Jim | 2 comments

You Don’t Know Who’s Out There

Hat tip to DOB for sending in this article about a realtor report that uses average and median sales prices, which aren’t the best ways to compare.  But it did describe an attempt at an off-market sale:

http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2014/05/15/a-rare-look-at-off-market-sales/#23276101=1

The average single-family home in San Francisco sold for 17% more in 2013 if it was marketed on the city’s MLS rather than if it were sold “off market,” according to a new report. The percentage narrows a bit for condos, which sold for 9% more on the MLS. The same report also found that despite this gap, 11% of S.F. sales occurred off-market in 2013. When looking at only the top 100 high-end properties, the percentage of off-market sales almost doubled, to 20%.

“I’ve heard a lot of heated arguments [about off-market deals], but very little data,” said real-estate agent and report author Matt Fuller. “This was an attempt to add some data to the discussion instead of just yelling louder.”

As a director for the San Francisco Association of Realtors, which runs the SFARMLS, as well a co-chair of the SFMLS & Technology Committee, it would be easy to think that Fuller has a vested interest in proving the MLS’s worth.

But Fuller insists that he was not expecting to discover such a large gap between on and off market deals, even though his own recent experience selling a property at One Rincon Hill (pictured above) is in line with his report’s findings.

1-br condoFuller said that the one-bedroom on the 41st floor got an off-market offer of $980K. The seller decided to take it to market anyway, and after quickly receiving six offers (four of which were all-cash), it sold for $1.050 million.

But, Fuller also said that, for some clients, the privacy or convenience of selling off-market may outweigh the added financial benefits of going on the MLS.

Read More

Posted by on May 19, 2014 in Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments