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Category Archive: ‘Why You Should List With Jim’

Zestimate Accuracy in SD

Anybody can evaluate a tract home with accuracy - the custom homes are much tougher, and depend more on personal visits.  If you are in a custom area, hit the open houses (sellers and buyers)! 

An excerpt from USAToday.com:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/09/01/zillow-trulia-spencer-rascoff-q-and-a/14703979/

Zillow employs a team of economists who contribute to the Zillow Real Estate blog and release market data that competes with similar research from Case Shiller and others.

The company makes no money off the data but does it for audience growth. “We have a $10-million-a-year expense item for all this,” Rascoff says.  “It goes much beyond PR,” he says. “This is data analytics.”

For Zillow users, the company’s trademark “Zestimate” is a way to gauge how much a home is worth. The company produces 110 million Zestimates three times a week, Rascoff says.

The margin for error can vary a lot by region and locale. In San Francisco, “we give ourselves two stars, which is not very good.”

In San Diego, “we give ourselves four stars.”

The wide range has to do with lots of different things, he says, including the quality of underlying data from county records and the like. And the data tends to be less accurate on the high and low ends of the market, because there are fewer comparison homes, or comps.

Still, he says, it’s a pretty good starting point, “considering that we have never been in the home.”

After all, he says, “we call it a Zestimate, not a Zappraisal.”

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/09/01/zillow-trulia-spencer-rascoff-q-and-a/14703979/

Posted by on Sep 1, 2014 in Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

More Documentary

The documentary-film production continues, with the crew of four spending two days in town this week.  Guy Mossman is the cinematographer – he also did the documentary ‘Buck’ which won at Sundance:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buck_(film)

The video shows us trying out WeVideo, which is a mobile app that provides full video production on your phone.  It already has 3.5 million customers, and Jostein is committed to bringing it to the realtor community next:

https://www.wevideo.com/

Then the clip captures one of the few times Guy provided some direction – usually he is invisible, and just lets the action flow:

Posted by on Aug 30, 2014 in About Kayla, About the author, Bubbleinfo TV, Documentary Film, Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Make the Deal

kalpati

Forget the price point, it’s the deal-making that is interesting about this case.  The sellers of this home just acquired it last week as part of a home swap, and before closing I had arranged for vendors to do a quick tune-up.  We hit the ground running, and $10,000 worth of new carpet, paint, and lighting got it ready for market in a week.

It listed for $398,000 on Saturday, and yesterday the model match across the street (listed for $392,000) went pending. It came back on market today, and they raised their price to the range $395,000-$405,000.

What do we do?

Lower our price to $389,000 – we want to be the next one to sell:

Posted by on Aug 26, 2014 in Bubbleinfo TV, Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

Stepped-Up Tax Basis

The other day, I used the term ‘die correctly’, which refers to those who hold properties until death, allowing those who inherit to step up the tax basis.

From wiki:

Under IRC § 1014(a) the general rule applied to property a beneficiary receives from a benefactor is that the beneficiary’s tax basis equals the fair market value of the property at the time the decedent dies. For example, Decedent owns a home they originally purchased for $35,000. Their tax basis in the home is equal to its cost, $35,000, assuming no adjustments under IRC § 1016. On the day Decedent dies, the fair market value of the home is $200,000. If Decedent bequeaths the home to Beneficiary, Beneficiary’s basis in the home will be the fair market value, $200,000.

In contrast, had Decedent given the home to Beneficiary before their death, Beneficiary would receive a carryover basis, which would be equal to the decedent’s adjusted basis in the home, $35,000.

Because of this provision, any appreciation of the affected property that occurred during the decedent’s lifetime will never be taxed. Thus, this provision provides an incentive for taxpayers to retain appreciated property until death.

As the baby boomer generation begins to expire, we should see more inventory – especially rental properties.  Any houses within a few miles of the coast are already in record territory, price-wise, and the beneficiaries would be smart to liquidate at least some of the properties while they can get top dollar.

The ones to sell would be the older homes needing more work, and/or those in inferior locations.  Keep the best, and sell the rest!

If you are thinking of selling, give me a call!

Posted by on Aug 25, 2014 in Market Conditions, Shadow Inventory, Why You Should List With Jim | 17 comments

Pricing By Zip

Isn’t it amazing that prices have kept rising without frenzy help?

We’ve had the frenzy hangover this year. Inventory is still tight, sellers confident, and buyers don’t have much choice except to pay what it takes – or to stand by.  But sales are softer – and the number of NSDCC active listings today is 7% higher than last year.

Here are the two pricing measurements for each zip code for detached-home sales between May 1st and July 31st.  Every zip code between Carlsbad and La Jolla shows a positive year-over-year increase in BOTH pricing metrics!

Town
Zip Code
Avg $/sf
Median SP
Cardiff
92007
$532/$582
$1.017/$1.075
Cbad NW
92008
$381/$434
$690,000/$721,000
Cbad SE
92009
$295/$316
$769,000/$831,000
Cbad NE
92010
$288/$321
$600,000/$668,500
Carlsbad SW
92011
$316/$347
$827,500/$855,000
Carmel Vly
92130
$373/$398
$1.025/$1.100
Del Mar
92014
$729/$805
$1.463/$1.630
Encinitas
92024
$427/$461
$860,000/$915,000
La Jolla
92037
$690/$742
$1.64/$1.75
RSF
67+91
$476/$502
$2.13/$2.27
Solana Bch
92075
$520/$733
$1.05/$1.56
NSDCC
All Above
$457/$513
$960,187/$1,010,000
NSDCC
% chg
+12%
+5%

I had to average the averages for the NSDCC $/sf, so they are probably high.

Rob Dawg said in his 2014 forecast that he thought we’d see all the annual gain happen in the first half of the year. It’s the post-frenzy soft landing!

Posted by on Aug 21, 2014 in Frenzy, North County Coastal, Why You Should List With Jim | 7 comments

Working the Plateau

SD trend

Buyers and sellers are aware that the market has been cooling off, though if you go by the soundbites, nobody seems to know why.

From Dr. Shiller this week:

“The market has been very strong since 2012. It’s up 27 percent since March of 2012. It’s been a huge boom,” Shiller said. “The question is what would end that boom? It might continue. This might be a little downward blip and it might continue going up, but you know, I kind of think it’s not going to go up a lot more—maybe 10 percent more—before a correction.”

Shiller said it’s clear something is worrying consumers, and he suggested that perhaps rising geopolitical tensions around the world may be to blame.

“It seems like optimism about housing is weakening,” he said. “Maybe the internationals, maybe all this talk about Ukraine has people rattled. You know, I’ve felt that in the past, that international news affects the housing market. I don’t have proof of that, but something is weighing on the consumers right now.”Meantime, a lack of credit has been a “festering problem” for the housing market, but “inevitable since had a banking crisis,” he said. Credit availability is “not going to correct soon.”

We’ve seen in recent years what motivates buyers to jump – rising prices and rising rates. But it looks like both prices and rates are going to be rangebound for the rest of the year, which will cause more head scratching.

The pundits view real estate like the stock market, and their focus is solely on the demand side – you never hear anybody question whether the home sellers are too optimistic.

It trickles down to the street too, where sellers and inexperienced agents sit on over-priced listings, and wonder what happened to the buyers. It doesn’t occur to them that they can fix their own troubles.

This is where a major break-through could happen if Zillow/Trulia – or anyone else with a national voice – could properly educate the marketplace.

If people embraced the mantra, “There’s Nothing Price Won’t Fix”, at least sellers and listing agents would be in reality. Currently they live in Fantasyland, thinking that they just need to wait longer.

Waiting did work over the last two years as the prices kept rising – eventually they caught up with those sellers who started too high.

But in a flat or slowly rising market, there’s no pressure on the buyers to jump. The chances of a lucky sale are greatly diminished because the long-sitters are only proving that their price is wrong – and it emboldens the buyers to be patient. Sellers can literally cause their own downturn.

The environment changes greatly when a market tops out. Buyers feel like they have waited this long, there’s not much more to lose by being patient now.

t-shirt

Posted by on Jul 31, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

JtR and Social Media

While we are at it, here’s another plug for my social-media outlets:

Facebook - Every bubbleinfo.com post gets uploaded here, but that’s about it.  If facebook is your thing, it might be easier to follow the blog here, but no comments though:

https://www.facebook.com/bubbleinfo/

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Bubbleinfo.com

Twitter – I love twitter and have 3,328 tweets, which is at least 1-2 per day.  You don’t even have to have a twitter account – you can follow them here at the blog in the right-hand column.  I usually include my synopsis in the first sentence – if it looks intriguing, click on the link for more.

My goal is to publish today’s current events in real estate – if you like maximum data input, watch the right-hand column, or click here to follow:

https://twitter.com/Bubbleinfo

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bubbleinfo mobile app

Bubbleinfo Mobile App – I think it works OK, though not many people are using it yet.  You can find it at the App Store or Google Play.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bubbleinfo/id836149128?mt=8

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mobiloud.android.bubbleinfo

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Jim the Realtor/Bubbleinfo Youtube account - A complete audio/visual history of the local bust and boom that started when I began receiving REO listings from Bank of America in April, 2008. There are over 1,700 videos with 2,037,056 views – thanks for the support!

https://www.youtube.com/user/JimtheRealtor

This is recognized as the first video I did myself – it has 10,133 views:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neY1P7UvNHw

The 1,091 subscribers get an occasional video that doesn’t make the blog, like this one:

http://youtu.be/UGMa4RoXnNU

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The Pinterest account doesn’t get constant attention, but it has a decent foundation of real estate-related stuff.  There are 1,359 pins on 32 boards:

http://www.pinterest.com/klingerealty/

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Instagram - I haven’t got around to Instagram yet, though Kayla should put some attention on it in the coming months.

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Thanks for participating – I’d love to assist you with your next move!

Posted by on Jul 23, 2014 in About the author, Drone, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Encinitas New Listing

willowspring

There is a chance that disruption could be upon us.

Reader Booty Juice said today said that since he bought his house 30 years ago, the transaction process hasn’t changed a bit.  It hasn’t – sellers still pay a full commission for two agents to figure out how to get to the finish line.

Is it possible that Zillow could make the MLS obsolete, and cause a sea change in how real estate is sold?

Let’s test it every chance we get.

I inputted a ‘Coming Soon’ listing this morning, and it has had 162 views in the first 12 hours - most of which were probably buyers, not agents.

The new Paragon MLS allegedly has a listing counter too.  I’m inputting the new listing now, and will try to track how many views happen through the MLS.  My guess is that Zillow views will exceed the MLS.

Here’s how it looks on video:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/357-Willowspring-Dr-N-Encinitas-CA-92024/16715502_zpid/

Open Tuesday 4-6pm, and Wednesday 10-12:30 and 4-6pm!

Posted by on Jun 30, 2014 in Bubbleinfo TV, Encinitas, Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 9 comments

They Ran Out of Excuses

The ‘analysts’ can’t blame the housing market on the cold winter any more.

The numbers look weak because you are comparing them to last year’s frenzy era (one of the hottest of all-time) plus sellers are asking too much!

From: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101767459

Widely watched measures of existing home sales and new home sales this week, as well as the latest release of the S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index, are expected to shed fresh light on the state of the housing market in America. And with the housing market appearing to lag the rest of the economy, that could have a big effect on where equities are heading.

“These housing numbers are the granddaddy of all numbers, if you ask me,” said Anthony Grisanti of GRZ Energy. “If these numbers do not come out good this week, you’re going to look at an S&P that’s going to be a lot weaker. … I don’t think the market or economy can sustain a few more months of weak housing.”

Read More

Posted by on Jun 23, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Why You Should List With Jim | 5 comments