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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Carlsbad
(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com


Category Archive: ‘Why You Should List With Jim’

Frenzy Killer

Why does a frenzy only last for a year? Because of the sellers’ disease.

Reader Sue left this comment:

In Carmel Valley, I’ve seen some very premium Lexington’s go for a high price ($1.9m) but they were on extremely large view lots.  Afterwards, it seemed like anyone with a Lexington or Derby Hill priced their home at simply ridiculous prices ($2 million or more!) and now I seem these homes sitting unsold on the MLS.  Excluding the few extraordinary homes, other CV homes seemed to have increased in price maybe $100-$150k in the past 2 years, but I don’t see prices going up the $300k that sellers have priced into them (versus prices from 2 years ago).  And the more homes that sit on the market, the lower their prices will be.

rhillWe’ve noticed more CV canyon-front homes coming on the market in 2013.  It used to be that you could expect to find one around $1,500,000, but this year a couple of sellers created new highs and now many are jumping in, hoping to capitalize on the good fortune.

One of the signs of a stalling frenzy is how sellers price their homes based on the active listings, not the solds.

Sure, there has always been some of that built into every seller’s price, but today’s euphoria is causing some huge pops in list prices.

CV Canyon-Front Scorecard:

13 active listings between $1.659 and $2.195 million.

3 went pending in April, none pending in May.

2 closed over $1.7M this year.

Everyone is hanging their hat on this sale - it closed for $1,900,000 last month:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130011204-5265_Raven_Hill_Point_San_Diego_CA_92130

Because one buyer paid a premium for a house that had everything going right for it doesn’t mean that there are dozens waiting to PAY THE SAME.  There are buyers waiting, but they want to pay less, and hope that a glut is forming that will cause sellers to lower their price.

It is a timing issue too.

Sellers all think that this is the prime-time selling season, and their lucky buyer will be walking through the door any minute.  They are ignoring how much competition there is, and how many aren’t selling.

A smart seller would drop their price now and be the first one out, but it’s more likely that they will all wait until mid-summer.  In the meantime, expect the frenzy to die down a bit.

Posted by on May 15, 2013 in Carmel Valley, Why You Should List With Jim | 10 comments

Peak Frenzy 3

JtRphotofromthewebHow do you know if a house will attract a frenzy?

You often see in the MLS remarks the now-standard comments like “this won’t last” or “reviewing all offers on Monday”; whose intention is to make you think it’s a hot buy.  But now that virtually every listing says those same things, you have to look deeper.

The true hot buys require immediate action, but only about 1 out of 10 listings fall into that category – if that many.

About half of the remainder are obvious, like this one which listed today:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/6833-Jade-Ln-92009/home/6664346

It’s the same floor plan and a few doors down from the REO Craptacular we just saw list for $939,000, so their $1.375 list price makes for an easy choice.

The other half are tougher to figure.

For a house to command a frenzy premium, it needs to have most or all of the following things going for it:

  1. Quality location.
  2. Excellent condition – visually attractive.
  3. Big kitchen, great room, and/or good master suite.
  4. Newer features – high ceilings, big windows for light, etc.
  5. Decent-sized private yard.
  6. Great school district.
  7. Excellent presentation by agent.

Once you see a house that fits into most of these, how do you know if you need to jump on it?  Other signs to consider:

A.  Is the listing agent actively pushing the product, or on the 3-P program? (Put the sign in the yard, Put the lockbox on, and Pray)

B.  Does the listing agent’s recent listing history indicate they are sharp on pricing?  Does their average DOM make you reach for your checkbook?

Of the 338 listings I’ve sold on the MLS, my average is 40 days on market.  Twenty-six of those were in the last 12 months, and their average is 23 days on market.  If the agent of your target listing has better numbers than that, you should not wait around.

C.  Does the presentation impress you?  Will it cause other buyers to come running with suitcases of money?  If not, your patience is more likely to be rewarded.  The listings with quality photos/video that are complimented with open houses offer maximum convenience to buyers, and are the ones that sell early.

D.  When at the house, are there business cards of other agents scattered around?  Have you heard of any of those agents?

If the house just listed and there are 10+ cards, then it might be hotly competitive but make sure it wasn’t a ‘refreshed’ old listing, or on broker preview that day.  If there aren’t any cards, maybe there isn’t any competition, and you can let it ride until the initial urgency is gone.

Last week I showed a house while it was on broker preview.  I got there a few minutes before it began, and what I saw told me plenty.  The listing agent showed up for the first two minutes, and once the goof assistant arrived, the LA left.  The house was priced at retail-plus, and had a 1960s floor plan and mostly-original kitchen.  I knew that most buyers would pass on that quickly, and the lime-green house across the street clinched it - no need to rush into anything here.

We know that the vast majority of houses that sell for top dollar are those that sell early in their listing period – usually in the first 5-10 days.

As a homebuyer, time is your best friend.  We know that if a house isn’t sold after the first two weeks, the showings dry up until the sellers start lowering the price.

So if you can be patient for 2-4 weeks before offering, you should catch the sellers, and listing agent, in a more-negotiable mood.

Posted by on May 14, 2013 in Frenzy, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 3 comments

When to Buy / Sell

The recent frenzy has been frustrating for buyers – should you wait-and-see?

The history of the median sales price shows that there is usually some softening around Dec/Jan – that is, up until this year:

US Median Sale Price

The demand feels extremely deep because there are so many lookers and offers – but not everyone is willing to pay these prices.  It is probable that the demand is truly deep at 90% of today’s prices – back where prices used to be.

Will buyers keep stepping up?

Most likely, as long as the list prices stay within reason, and there are few choices.  San Diego inventory is down 1/3 year-over-year, which is given sellers free reign to push list prices higher.

You can see below that sellers might be reaching their ‘jump the shark’ moment, with both the inventory bottoming, and the list prices on the higher-end rocketing skyward (+16% since December):

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego

This is a great time to sell – even better if you have neighbors who have closed for high prices in the last 30 days!

Posted by on May 6, 2013 in Graphs of Market Indicators, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Archer Closed

archer

The house featured in the Businessweek article closed escrow today for $610,000.

It’s my duty to properly expose the property to the entire marketplace – and conducting open house during the listing’s first weekend provides maximum convenience for all.

There were two offers, both from people who attended the open house.

The first couple who attended expressed moderate interest to me, and then contacted their agent to handle the rest – which is the way it should be.

I’m not looking to steal buyers away from their agent, and I encourage their loyalty.  I tell buyers who ask that there is no extra benefit by going direct through me, instead of sticking with their agent.

The second couple was actively looking to buy a home, and had their pre-qual letter and proof of funds with them.  They didn’t have an agent, so I told them that I’d be happy to help them.  Because I know the underwriting guidelines, I was able to determine their qualifications by asking the right questions.

What is the bidding-war strategy with this combo?

The first couple had sent in a full-price offer before I had a chance to meet my buyers later.  I told their agent that I was going to write an offer too, and let’s just go to highest-and-best immediately.

I told me buyers to make the best offer they could, and told them about the comps and my opinion of value.  They signed the $610,000 offer, with 20% down payment and conventional financing.

Later the other agent sent by text his buyers’ best offer; $615,000, financed FHA with 3.5% down.

The sellers had tried to sell last year with a different agent, and had three offers then.  The set of buyers they selected did a home inspection that resulted in a 99-page report, full of assumptions and possibilities, most with no factual basis. It blew out the first buyers.

Their listing agent sent the report along to the other two sets of buyers, and both of them promptly lost interest.

An example of an item in the report.  The previous owners had installed a doggie door in the back wall of the house. When they left, the stucco patch wasn’t that great, but it sure looked like a former doggie door to me.

The inspector said that the imperfection was probably due to a water leak, and there was likely to be mold inside the wall.  Nice.

What do you do with a bad report?

You can’t assume that the buyer’s agent is going to take the time to read it, and then explain in carefully to their buyer.  Because the report rides with the property, I told the sellers on my initial visit that I would ensure that the buyers got my thorough explanation of the report.

The sellers had already done their part – they opened the wall and proved that there was no water leak or mold, so that helped.

But they still had concerns, and I didn’t blame them – they didn’t have any positive experiences up to that point.

When we discussed the two offers, I am the listing agent whose job is to neutrally explain the good and bad points of each offer.  I told them that it didn’t matter to me which offer they took, because if they wanted to take the higher offer, I would sell my buyers another house.

FHA requires the appraisers to scrutinize the condition of the house, make comments, and potentially require that repairs be made to complete the sale.  Conventional financing does not have the same requirement.

The sellers decided that a conventionally-financed offer was their preference, even if they had to take an offer that was $5,000 less.

Game Agent, I owe you two t-shirts!

JtR qualifying the buyers on the spot:

businessweekbuyers

Posted by on Apr 23, 2013 in Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 8 comments

Price Coaching For Bidding Wars

In the previous post I mentioned that when I represent sellers, I give price coaching to agents during a bidding war.

What is price coaching? It is giving hints about the competing bids.

Let’s use the Manzanita case for an example.

Once a highest-and-best offer came in above $700,000, I started telling the other agents that it would take more than $700,000 to win.  It gives others a number to shoot at, rather than the guessing game that feels like a black hole.

I was also very specific that we were not going to let this linger, that we would select a winner on Monday afternoon, which we did.

Putting parameters around the game helps bidders decide their fate.  It is much easier for buyers to say “yes” or “no” to going over $700,000, then to just let them wander around, price-wise.

Once we had three people willing to go above $700,000, I kept giving hints until all bidders said that they had reached their maximum.

This is the opposite of what most agents do.  Most agents will put a note in the MLS that says, “there are multiple offers, send in your best offer”.  They also make it clear that they aren’t going to tell you how many offers there are, what price it will take to win, or even what their process is to select the winner. This is the sealed-bid method.

The sealed-bid process encourages bidders to offer less than their valuation of the item, because everyone wants a deal, and there is no fear of loss to push them to their maximum.

My method creates the closest thing to an auction/open bidding, which is the most effective way to find top dollar.

There are no rules or guidelines on how agents are supposed to handle a bidding war, so every seller and agent are their own.  Get good help!

 

Posted by on Apr 18, 2013 in Bidding Wars, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

Manzanita Sold for 13% Over List

7208 Manzanita

We closed escrow on 7208 Manzanita today.

This is the house where the owners had just paid $565,000 in September and began their remodel of its mostly original condition.  Then job-perfect came calling, and off to the midwest they went.

But not before completing all of the upgrades, including new kitchen, bathrooms, roof, hardwood floors, etc – close to $70,000 worth.

When we listed for $649,000, they were hoping to break even.

I had planned for open house both Saturday and Sunday, and had enough calls immediately upon MLS input that I also conducted an impromptu Friday afternoon open house too, for those who couldn’t wait.

By the end of Sunday we had eight offers, and I politely asked all to make their highest-and-best offers.  Unlike most listing agents, I give price coaching – and was telling people that it appeared it would take more than $700,000 to buy the house.

If you help give buyers a number to hit, it makes it easier for them to say yes or no.  If all they have is a black hole, somebody who really wants it – and has the ability to pay whatever it takes – could short themselves.  Buyers and agents are always appreciative of having some clue to what it will take to win.

On Monday afternoon, the sellers and I huddled at the house to make the decision.  It came down to two - a cash offer of $724,000, or $731,000 with 50% down payment with no appraisal contingency that also included a bank statement showing that they could comfortably make up the difference.

We took the higher deal.

The extra $7,000 isn’t a lot of money, but cash buyers have the same remorse as anyone else – and there was no guarantee that the cash deal would have closed any easier.

The appraisal came in at $695,000, though there were no comps in the neighborhood over $600,000 in the last six months.

Because the buyers were putting down 50%, the appraised value didn’t matter much to the lender, though they were paranoid enough to insist upon an appraisal review just for their records in case Fannie/Freddie questioned it.

I did keep in touch with the agent who wrote the cash offer, and they were standing by in case the appraisal became a problem.

I told everyone from the beginning that the appraisal was going to be short – my guess was $690,000 – so there was no surprise when it did.  The appraisal was a technicality needed for the bank’s file – it didn’t change anything for the buyers who were planning to put down the same amount of cash anyway.  It was understandable that there had been a shortage of recent comps.

(There had been the usual smattering of fraudulent short sales over the last 12 months, but their impact will dwindle by the end of this year.)

All in all, it turned out well for everyone!

Here is the video tour: http://youtu.be/HO-52PWmYD0

Posted by on Apr 17, 2013 in Why You Should List With Jim | 6 comments

Re-Calibration

Ken compared some of today’s tactics to those used at the peak:

They’re back after barely a decade: escalation clauses in real estate contracts, “naked” contingency-free offers and low-ball-priced listings designed to pull in dozens of bidders and turn routine sales transactions into auctions.

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/apr/12/business/la-fi-harney-20130414

buyinghouseI hope listing agents put their foot down about the escalation clause.  Every buyer would pay an extra $1,000 if that is all it took to win, so it isn’t a fair way to determine the winner.  Listing agents should demand that each buyer commit to a specific price, because those deals are more likely to stick.

No-contingency offers are great for the buyers with loads of money and guts, but wouldn’t you offer less than your maximum to compensate?  To encourage more buyers to go this route, it would be smart for sellers to provide a home inspection report at time of listing.  The goal is to sell the house, not to collect deposits from failed escrows.

You don’t have to list your home below market today to attract a crowd, just pricing it at the comps will put you ahead of other seller nearby.  Either way, make sure your listing agent has specific and adequate strategies on how to conduct a bidding war.

Here are other ideas – for sellers:

1. Provide unlimited access to the property immediately.

On the Manzanita listing, I told the sellers to leave town on Friday, and come back on Monday prepared to make a decision.  We communicated over the weekend in case there was a reason to change course, but the strategy worked great.  We reviewed offers by email as they came in, and asked all eight to make their highest and best offer.  By the time the sellers got back on Monday, we had the H&Bs and picked a winner.

2. Make sure your agent is ready, willing, and able to field inquiries.

The buyer-agents start calling, emailing, and texting within an hour of hot new listings hitting the MLS, if your agent is out to lunch they will burn the most precious first few hours and days of peak urgency.

3.  Put an attractive price on it.

Buyers have no problem over-bidding, so resist the urge to tack on a few extra bucks.  Chances are good that you added some icing to your cake already, so avoid the pricing overdose!  You want/need max bidders so your bidding-war strategy can work effectively – there is nothing worse than having only two low offers, and when you try to get them to bid up, instead they bail.  An attractive price will bring 5-10 bidders, and put more heat on them, not you.

Here are other ideas – for buyers:

1.  You need a teflon memory.

If you keep remembering comps from last year, you won’t be buying a house anytime soon.  I regularly see houses selling for 20% to 40% more than last year’s comps – it is a new day, and you can accept it, or wait.

2.  Flash your cash.

The listing agents are telling the sellers to take the strongest offers, determined by who has the most cash.  Prepare to provide a bank statement to substantiate your strength, and get fully pre-approved in advance if you want to utilize paragraph 3k.

3.  If you want to sell your old house concurrently, you have a problem.

If your agent can do some fancy dancing, you might be able to pull it off.  But it is so competitive, it would be a shame to miss the perfect house because you didn’t have this part handled in advance.

Admittedly, it is a quandry – if you sell first and rent, you have to move twice, and you could get priced out if you can’t find a replacement quickly and the market keeps moving.

The other options:

A. If you list your home for sale with an open-ended seller contingency to find suitable housing, you might lose some buyers and sell for less – and if you didn’t find a house to buy, you would have burned up your precious first-time-on-market urgency.

B. Have your house ready to sell, and when you find a suitable replacement, list your house for sale in the same hour and hope your agent is lucky!

C. Make an offer-to-purchase, contingent on selling your existing house – but don’t be surprised if most sellers send you to the back of the line.

Your agent should be able to address the options and offer some advice on the best choices.

Get good help!

Posted by on Apr 16, 2013 in Bidding Wars, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

No Appraisal Contingency

Sellers need a listing agent who can handle this effectively:

Becoming a homeowner may be getting more difficult for San Diego buyers.

With multiple offers and low housing inventory, sellers are starting to ask buyers to submit offers without an appraisal contingency, meaning the down payment must cover the difference between the offer and the appraisal, if the appraisal comes in low.

“It is becoming more and more common as the shortage of inventory and the increase in buyer demand has continued through the spring and buying season,” said Maria Peña-Morales, owner of Team Q of Re/Max Ranch & Beach.

intensefocus“Within the last month, I see it occur even more. The reason I think sellers are requesting it is because they want to remove any chance that the buyer will back out. If the buyers only qualify for a certain dollar amount and the appraisal comes in below, the seller could be stuck putting it back in the market.”

Joe Bertocchini, director of residential real estate at University of San Diego’s Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, said this action by the sellers could be a result of the selling “frenzy” that’s going on, with properties “flying off the shelf in less than 24 hours.”

“Sellers are looking for who the most probable close is,” Bertocchini said. “They look at the offers for who is paying all cash or closing with no contingencies, so they can close without any hiccups that might prohibit the sale of the property.”

Soledad Reaves, a real estate consultant with Re/Max Associates, said that in the past three months, four sellers have asked buyers to remove appraisal contingencies from their offers.

One of Reaves’ clients offered $285,000 for a condominium, which was high. The seller said there were plenty of offers and asked the buyers to remove the appraisal contingency.

“If you don’t do that, you’re out of the race,” Reaves said.

In that particular case, her client countered with a lower offer and removed the appraisal contingency. Another bidder offered a higher amount and her client’s offer wasn’t accepted.

In another case, a broker responded to an offer from one of Reaves’ clients, saying there were 14 offers on the property, and the price on the offers reached a level where the sellers were concerned it wouldn’t appraise. The broker informed Reaves of the requested purchase price and said the seller wanted a “significant” down payment and no appraisal contingency.

Once the trend caught on, it started becoming more prevalent, especially within the past month, Peña-Morales said.

“The more people who start to do it, the more it is continued,” Peña-Morales said.

“I think it’s pretty risky business if you’re going that route just because you’re not leaving yourself much of an out when going into escrow,” Bertocchini said.

But with so little inventory on the market and such tough competition, Reaves said buyers are willing to take that risk.

“Some people have been looking for quite some time. They’re tired of looking and are willing to pay the difference between the appraisal value and the offer,” Reaves said.

“I’m also seeing agents that, in their offers, write that they’re willing to pay $1,000 above any of the higher offers. It’s a very discouraging thing for buyers … who (don’t) have that much money, who are just starting to become homebuyers and they don’t have the cash, or have limited cash.”

Buyers who have been looking for a whole year are watching home values increase, interest rates remain low and monthly mortgages compete with what they pay in rent.

Bertocchini agreed that in this situation, most regular homebuyers are not able to move forward without that type of contingency, making this market more difficult for them. The competition with investors is “frustrating” for other qualified buyers, Peña-Morales said. And there’s no appraisal when there are cash buyers.

“The buyers on the market now are seeing multiple offers — 10, 15, 20 offers — primarily in the $400,000 to $800,000 range. And they’re getting beat out because someone else had the same dollar amount but was able to remove the appraisal contingency,” Peña-Morales said.

Peña-Morales said this also happened in 2005 and 2006, when people were willing to pay more than the asking price and remove the appraisal contingency, knowing they had to come up with additional cash.

“My concern is how it affects the housing market. Back in 2005, 2006, 2007, we began to see accelerating, and unnaturally accelerating, increases in sales prices and the appraisal value not being there,” Peña-Morales said.

Peña-Morales said she expects sellers to continue to ask for the appraisal contingency to be removed until there is more inventory on the market.

“Just because it’s relatively new that we’re seeing it, I don’t know if it’s something that’s going to continue,” Bertocchini said. “The way the market is behaving, I think anything is possible. I don’t think it’s bad for the entire market, but I will say it’s going to put an additional stress or additional frustration for individuals who are going to buy homes.”

From sddt.com

Posted by on Apr 11, 2013 in Bidding Wars, Frenzy, Market Buzz, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

More From Businessweek

Karen at Businessweek added a supplement to the story:

jim in his favorite pose

Jim the Realtor, a/k/a Jim Klinge, is known for his video chronicles of the Southern California housing bust. Now, as I report in this week’s issue of the magazine, his camera is capturing a different story: rising prices and bidding wars. Here are his tips for getting the best deals in today’s market:

Experience counts. Sellers “should pick an agent based on how many sales they have closed in the last 12 months,” he says.

“That’s the best indicator of how they can navigate this market. You don’t have to be a superstar, but you need to know your way around and close at least one a month.”

Don’t get greedy. Klinge insists that the very best offers come right after a property is listed.

“People are used to the Internet, Amazon, and buying what they want, when they want it,” he says. Potential buyers know about new listings instantly and want to buy quickly.

He says some agents get “greedy” waiting for better offers after the first wave. In the meantime, potential buyers lose interest, find something else, or feel less pressure to raise their offers.

Read more here:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-08/home-buying-and-selling-tips-from-a-pro

Posted by on Apr 8, 2013 in About the author, Tips, Advice & Links, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments