This is the sddt.com reporting on Zillow’s report measuring the change in velocity, but neither company includes any help with interpreting:
The number of house for-sale listings in San Diego was down more than 25 percent in June from June 2012, according to Zillow.
However, San Diego had one of the highest degrees of year-over-year inventory improvement between January and June.
The number of San Diego listings on Zillow was down 25.6 percent in June from last year, compared to a 40.5 percent decline in January. Inventory of for-sale homes on Zillow improved by 14.9 percentage points between January and June, controlling for seasonality.
Among the 30 largest metro areas covered by Zillow, those with the highest degree of year-over-year inventory improvement between January and June include Phoenix (31.9 percentage point improvement); San Diego (14.9 percentage point improvement); and Minneapolis (13.5 percentage point improvement).
Inventory shortages worsened between January and June in 29 metro areas overall, and in 11 of the top 30 largest metros. Large metros where inventory constraints have tightened the most since the beginning of the year include Las Vegas (-21.8 percentage point worsening); Chicago (-12.3 percentage point worsening); and Washington, D.C. (-9.8 percentage point worsening).
They are solely measuring the inventory of active listings, and leaving the impression that fewer people are selling. But that’s not true – we already saw that the number of listings in San Diego County this year was about the same as last year. Let’s narrow the focus to NSDCC houses.
The number of listings of NSDCC detached-homes between Jan 1-June 10:
The number of listings is +9% higher this year than last year. When you hear that inventory is low, it’s because more homes are selling (+15%), leaving fewer actives.
We should see the gaps in the Y-O-Y comparisons start to moderate, just because the market picked up in the mid-to-late summer months of 2012. The media will think the sky is falling, but keeping an eye on the total number of listings, instead of just the actives, will add to our education. P.S. There are 561 contingent and pending listings too!