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Mary asked, “How many SD foreclosures have there been over the last three years?”

A total of 44,216 trustee sales since January 1, 2007!

In the same time frame there have been 95,499 sales of detached and attached homes on the MLS.

Hymettus is one of the more prominent streets in Leucadia, but there haven’t been any sales there since summer. So two older sales on Hymettus are included, the first closed in July, 2009, and the second was January, 2009:

I hesitated with the first story, but it demonstrates how a life-changing event at the wrong time can be very costly.

A few more recent sales around Carmel Valley, and how they compared to model-match sales at peak:

From the U-T:

San Diegans who have lost their homes through foreclosure or short-sales thought they had emerged from the dark times and could start rebuilding their lives.

Then the state tax man came calling.

With less than six weeks before taxes are due, an estimated 16,000 former homeowners statewide will owe $15 million in extra income taxes this year and $29 million through 2012.

The tax applies to what is called the “cancellation of debt” that occurs when property owners lose their homes through foreclosure or arrange a short-sale in which they sell for less than the mortgage balance. The lender sends them a form itemizing the forgiven debt, and the amount is subject to income tax.

Congress exempted most homeowners from the extra federal tax through 2012, and the state followed suit for 2007 and 2008 but did not extend the provision last year. The state Assembly may vote tomorrow on a bill to repeal the tax, but Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed such a bill last year over unrelated provisions.

“They’re probably stuck,” San Diego tax attorney Bob Kevane said of former homeowners facing the tax. “The biggest way around it is if you’re insolvent.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a tour of Derby Hill, the Pardee tract of big bombers south of the 56 freeway. In the MLS remarks of the only model listed, it said that the furniture did not convey. The house across the street (towards the end of video) that’s mentioned as pending, listed for $1,449,000, had multiple offers and just closed escrow a couple of days ago – full price:

The recent Mustang Ridge resales on video:

A. The $1,337,500 was 2% under price the seller had paid, but buyers’ were represented by father who may have kicked in commission.

B. The $1,335,000 was $100,000 over what seller paid in March, 2007.

C. The $1,449,000 was $6,000 under what seller paid in March, 2007.

Yes, they had paid for improvements during their stay, plus closing costs.

What is the difference between peak pricing and today? 

Many considered that 2006 was the peak of the market in 92130, here is a youtube tour of a few recent sales, and how they compared to previous comps:

Hat tip to Rob who sent this in:

SAN DIEGO — The safest place to live in San Diego includes parts of Rancho Peñasquitos and Carmel Valley, according to a new study by a private company.

NeighborhoodScout, a company that specializes in helping families and businesses make relocation decisions, took a variety of crime data from the nation’s 50 largest cities and came up with a ranking of 1 to 100, with 100 being the best score. It recently posted an article on WalletPop.com that scored Rancho Peñasquitos/Carmel Valley at 97. The chance of becoming a victim of crime in the area — which included ZIP codes 92130, 92129 and 92121 — was listed as 1 in 769.

Data included reports from local agencies and the FBI and looked at violent and property crimes, including murder, rape, theft and burglary. According to the study, the nation’s average crime index is 50. The company’s Web site said the area around and west of Carmel Mountain and Black Mountain roads is in the top 15 percent of the nation’s wealthiest communities and has a median home value of $746,668.

A youtube tour of recent detached sales in Carlsbad:

The Spring Kick statistics for North SD County’s Coastal region are likely to be tepid, at best, over the next few months, just because of the low inventory - the quality buys are hard to come by.

But if there was an area that could continue to beat the odds, it’s 92130.

I think most of us figured that Carmel Valley would be at $300/sf by now, but all four of these stats are holding up – why? The strength of the buyer pool is phenomenal, and the amount of cash is mind-boggling. Here are the down payments of the Carmel Valley SFRs closed this year (1/1-2/22):

It’s been like this for months, 77.5% of the buyers have at least 25% down, and 35% used more than 50% down payments. Two thoughts: We’re probably not going to see cascading defaults of recent buyers in the future, when they have invested so much down-payment. Their payments are lower (though not low), and they must feel comfortable with their finances to invest so much up front – they must intend to stay a while. Secondly, we should grapple with the likelihood that real estate in the area has turned into a rich-man’s game….only. We know that homeownership isn’t for everyone, but if these trends continue, buying a house will just be for the elite, at least in 92130.

Are the sellers having to take big hits to sell?  From the tax rolls, here are the same-house-sales data; the amount of price change between the last sale and the most recent (between Jan.1 – Feb. 22):

2002 and before:
+144%,+138%,+113%,+102%,+99%,+83%,+80%,+47%,+34%,+20%,+14% (REO)
2003:
+33%,+28%,+19%,+14%,-4% (REO)
2004:
+9%,+7%,+7%
2005:
-10%, -17% (REO)
2006:
+2%,-4%,-11%,-11%,-12%,-13%,-20%
2007:
+8%,-5%,-12%,-13%,-20% (REO),-22%
2008:
0,-2%,-4%

Will there be enough peak-buyers that either can’t afford their payments, or bail out due to being underwater that we’ll see a significant change in the trend? I think it would have happened by now, but if it’s still coming, we should see more signs in the next few months.

An indicator to watch is the amount of new listings coming on the market. This month isn’t over, but here are the number of February detached listings from 2001 to 2010:

85,70,81,63,70,79,75,73,73,and 69 so far this month.

Levitating, or just beating the odds – either way, it;’s been impressive in Carmel Valley!

On Monday, CR had this SS post and graph on the increase in short sales. The information used was part of a package that included a national audio conference held that day about short sales, and the upcoming HAFA, which begins April 5th.

There were three speakers, from Bank of America, Wells Fargo Bank, and Freddie Mac, who discussed what they are doing about making short sales more palatable.

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Bank of America rolled out their new short sale phone number, 866-880-1232, and mentioned that agents can now use their REO-processing website  for short sales.  The presentation was a little light on details, but I can report a recent success.  

We submitted a short sale on behalf of our seller that only took six weeks to get an approval (and the notice came over on a Sunday, from Plano, Texas).

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Wells Fargo Bank announced that they are placing short-sale managers in the field.  They will be interviewing the sellers on-site, going to their houses to determine their eligibility, and collecting the necessary financial documents.  Once in process they’ll order an appraisal, and have a response in 7-10 business days.

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I think the banks are too optimistic about the sellers’ willingness to cooperate, after training them to crave the free cheese.  WFB is giving $5,000 cash-for-keys to the sellers, but they need to threaten them with foreclosure if we’re going to see any real movement.

Both banks promised to pick up the pace - if they could close short sales within 60 days, it would be a big improvement.  To keep the sales urgency higher, the banks have to move quicker to determine the acceptable price of the properties – buyers would be more willing to wait out the process if they knew their price was approved. 

It’s hard to believe that the servicers will push to pre-approve any short-sale prices, or especially in the volumes necessary to make a difference.  Pre-approvals are, in effect, a voluntary principal reduction, and servicers aren’t going to be rushing those out.  Will they approve a fully-packaged short sale in 2-6 weeks?  It’s possible, and getting an accurate valuation quickly is the key.

Other hurdles: 

• The junior lienholders have to agree to lose money too.
• In the Q&A, it was asked if there are going to be deficiency judgments, or are the sellers off the hook.  Freddie Mac confirmed that sellers in HAFA are released from liability, but the representatives from Bank of America and WFB were conspicuously silent.
• Sellers are still subject to deficiency judgements from junior lienholders, and liable for income tax on capital gains.
• For possession and occupancy to be delivered to the buyers, the sellers have to get out of the house.  But they are addicted to the free rent, plus their credit report will reflect 6 to 18 months of late payments on their mortgages.
• Once the short sale is approved, the buyers then conduct their physical inspection.  Any required repairs fall on the realtor to resolve – expect many potential short sales to fail at this juncture due to inexperience/ineffectiveness. 
• The rampant fraud being committed by realtors is a turn-off.

The housing bailouts have a history of not benefiting the masses.  For short sales to increase significantly, the lenders would have to commit to losing big money, and lately there has been reluctance and feet-dragging.

San Diego was up 2.7% year-over-year, but catch their remarks.  Even though Shiller admits that pricing has been up since April, he is worried about the downside risks:

Let’s acknowledge the MBS-buying and tax credit, and call it even for the last year?