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Carlsbad
(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
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jim@jimklinge.com


Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

Inventory Watch

The Inventory Watch should be where we’ll see any indicators of market trouble.  But today’s inventory is 6% less than a year ago, with only the $800,000 – $1,400,000 category higher (244 vs 240 listings).

A growing inventory would mean sales are slowing, but we’re selling more houses this year than last year.  In the first four months of 2014, we sold 838 NSDCC houses, and we’ve already closed 824 this year with four days to go plus late-reporters!

The 2015 average cost-per-sf is higher too: $432/sf vs. $415/sf last year.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 27, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

San Diego Selling Faster

Hat tip to W.C. for sending in this article:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/15/real_estate/housing-markets-fastest-sales/index.html?iid=HP_River

An excerpt:

The report tracked home sales listed on Trulia in the 100 biggest metro areas in the U.S. on Feb. 5 and were still available on April 5. In addition to the 8 cities in California, Seattle and Salt Lake City, Utah, also made the top 10 list.

Farther south in the Golden State, homes in San Diego are also selling at a rapid pace with 33% of homes listed in February still available 60 days later, down from 44% the year prior.

This means buyers, especially first-timers, need to go into their house hunt prepared, advised McLaughlin.

“Not only is it more difficult to buy where homes are moving fastest, the homes first-timers would buy are moving faster compared to middle and higher-priced homes. It’s a double whammy.”

San Diego had the biggest YoY change of the Top 10 cities:

fast san diego

Posted by on Apr 16, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 11 comments

Inventory Watch

If you get the feeling that the 2015 market has been a lot like 2014, it’s because it has been, statistically.  Using the NSDCC data gathered below, here are the new actives and new pendings from the first 15 weeks of each year, and the number of house sales closed in the first quarter:

Year
New Actives
New Pendings
1Q Solds
1Q Avg $/sf
2014
1,282
900
581
$502/sf
2015
1,263
903
614
$509/sf

Are we at a pause before climbing higher?  Plateau City?  Or are we at the crest of the roller-coaster??

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 13, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

NSDCC 1st Qtr. Stats

The continued strength in sales and pricing is remarkable. We sold 360 houses between Carlsbad and La Jolla for more than $1,000,000 in the first quarter!

Year
Number of Sales
Median SP
Avg Cost Per SF
Avg. DOM
2012
577
$793,000
$362/sf
99
2013
672
$850,000
$386/sf
61
2014
581
$1,000,000
$503/sf
56
2015
613
$1,162,500
$509/sf
58

Since 2012, the median sales price has risen 47%, and the average $/sf has gone up 41%. Thank goodness for low mortgage rates!

mortgage rates april 2015

Posted by on Apr 10, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Spring Kick Initial Report

It’s remarkable how strong the data is for homes sold around North San Diego’s coastal region.  Most impressive is the number of sales in spite of higher pricing – there isn’t much drop-off!

These are houses sold between February 1 – March 15

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $/sf
Avg DOM
2011
263
$865,000
$378/sf
91
2012
295
$785,000
$364/sf
94
2013
333
$840,000
$394/sf
64
2014
282
$939,500
$500/sf
51
2015
284
$1,110,000
$528/sf
52

Yesterday, the guy on CNBC who has predicted the last couple of bond-market moves said that he expects the 10-year yields will be down to 1.50% in the next few months, which should push mortgage rates under 3.50%. Waahoo!

rate

Posted by on Mar 24, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC January Sales

Though the MLS rules require that closed sales are reported within 48 hours, there will still be some late reporters of last month’s closings.  But these medians and averages should stay about the same:

January
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median DOM
#Sales <$900,000
2012
155
$760,000
$374/sf
63
97
2013
185
$845,000
$379/sf
44
103
2014
182
$1,072,500
$501/sf
41
70
2015
156
$1,216,952
$515/sf
44
49

Buyers hoping to get a cheapie in Carmel Valley or Encinitas have had an excruciating experience.  Only 14 of the 49 sales that closed under $900,000 last month were south of Carlsbad.

Posted by on Feb 5, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 7 comments

San Diego is #1

san diego downtown1

While San Diego may not be the most expensive city to own a home, it is considered the least affordable.

According to a study conducted by Realtor.com, San Diego ranks as the most unaffordable city in terms of real estate in relation to income.

“In more than 90 percent of the zip codes, less than half of the people can afford to buy homes. That’s the worst in any metropolitan area in the U.S.,” said University of San Diego economics professor Alan Gin.

http://fox5sandiego.com/2015/02/03/san-diego-ranked-as-least-affordable-city-in-u-s/

Posted by on Feb 4, 2015 in Local Flavor, Sales and Price Check | 9 comments

$1,000,000+ Sales, 4th Qtr.

The national fourth-quarter data is discussed in the video below, and Kelly makes a great point at the very end.

Statistically we’ve been steady, and I triple-checked these numbers!  These are the sales of houses between Carlsbad and La Jolla that closed at or above $1,000,000 in the fourth quarter:

Year
# of NSDCC $1M+ Sales
Avg SF
Avg $/sf
Median SP
4Q11
191
4,376sf
$493/sf
$1,425,000
4Q12
331
3,903sf
$535/sf
$1,500,000
4Q13
330
3,771sf
$598/sf
$1,507,592
4Q14
331
3,762sf
$591/sf
$1,555,000

From cnbc.com – an excerpt:

The stronger dollar has also hurt overseas demand, as U.S. homes become expensive for those buying with other currencies.

The most expensive home deal in the fourth quarter was the $70 million sale of the 23,000-square-foot ultra-modern home in Beverly Hills, California, sold to Markus “Notch” Persson, the founder of the Minecraft video game. The house, built on spec by handbag magnate Bruce Makowsky, was listed for $85 million.

Outside of New York, the community with the largest number of $1 million-plus homes sold in the quarter was Manhattan Beach, California, with 109 sales. Laguna Beach, California, was second, with 91.

Among the biggest discounts in the quarter was the $5 million sale of a waterfront property in Newport, Rhode Island, that had once been listed for $12.9 million. A property in Santa Paula, California, listed for $6.34 million ended up selling for $3.5 million.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102344819

Posted by on Jan 18, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Why Sell Your House Now

Dec2014

We need more homes to sell! From the DQ:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2015/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA150114.aspx

“One month doesn’t make a trend, but December’s uptick in home sales might indicate renewed interest in housing thanks to lower mortgage rates and job growth in recent months,” said Andrew LePage, data analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick. “The gain came despite a continued decline in the share of homes sold to investors and cash buyers.

If demand continues to build, we’ll need more supply to keep up with it. One of the big questions hanging over the housing market is whether higher demand and home values will lead to a lot more people listing their homes for sale, as well as more new-home construction, which remains well below average.”

The ultra-low mortgage rates have gotten every buyer’s attention, and the sales are starting to reflect it – just like at the end of 2012.  If the December sales are the precursor, then we are at least looking at a frenzy-lite experience over the next few months:

NSDCC December Sales
# of Dec. Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
Avg $/sf
2010
205
$835,000
69
$388/sf
2011
220
$800,000
62
$351/sf
2012
294
$849,500
44
$402/sf
2013
211
$1,075,000
40
$485/sf
2014
243
$1,075,000
41
$486/sf

Around the NSDCC, you can sell your home for more than it has ever been worth.  But is that enough to cause people to sell?  For most people, no. We like living here, and have no place better to go.

We don’t need everyone to move.  All we need is about 10% more listings than last year, and we’ll hit full frenzy. The 2003-2004 era was the craziest frenzy of all-time, and it’s because we had more houses to sell:

Year
Number of New Listings, First Half (Jan-Jun)
2003
5,178
2004
5,162
2013
4,817
2014
4,681

In a region of 300,000 people, all we need is about 80 more houses per month to sell.  We need a few potential sellers to change their mind about selling later, and sell now instead.

If you know you are going to be selling in a few years anyway, but these ideal conditions look too good to pass up, here’s how you can justify moving now:

1.  Move before you retire.  If you were thinking about downsizing and wanted to stay local, then either buy a condo close to home, or move to the outskirts where you can still buy a home for less than $500,000 – and commute to work for a year or two.  The low-end market is much hotter, and prices moving up quicker.

2.  Sell and rent. If you know you are going to be leaving town shortly, sell when the market is red hot, and rent a beach hut for a year or two.  Yes, rents are outrageous – but your home’s sales price will be too!

3. Retire early.  You are making more money in the stock market than you are at that stinking job you can barely tolerate.  Cash out while you can!

4.  Sell and move when you are healthy.  If you’ve been in the same home for more than 10 years, you have a lot of stuff to sort through – physically, mentally, and emotionally.  It is much easier when you have your health.

5.  Move up when rates are low.  Obviously, if you are moving up and financing the next purchase, these low rates are advantageous.

6.  Sell before rates go up.  Remember that in June 2013, that mortgage rates moved back into the mid-4% range on a rumor that the Fed was going to tighten – which they never did.  It won’t take much to pull this punch bowl.

Historically, the market has been a ten-year cycle, and the SD trough this time was April 2009.  It got dragged out longer in the 2005-2007 era by Angelo’s nutty no-doc financing, and today’s low rates might extend the party a while longer.  But it isn’t going to last forever, and mortgage rates will go up before the Fed does anything.

Once mortgage rates go up, buyers will expect lower prices, and we saw prices stall out much of last year.  But do you want to sell for less?  Not until you test the market for a year or two, and by then, buyers will be in control.

Contact me today for a free consultation!  jim@jimklinge.com

Posted by on Jan 16, 2015 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

SD Lower Tier Is Hotter

SD Tiered

The ivory-tower opinion below is blaming speculators for a mini-bubble, but around here I’d say that over 90% of the home sales were regular, organic real estate transactions in 2013.  Prices may fall in the coming months (slightly), and if they do, it will be because buyers are being patient and picking off only the best buys.

http://journal.firsttuesday.us/california-tiered-home-pricing/

Home prices displayed mixed signals in Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego in the single month of October 2014. Prices dipped in San Diego, remained roughly level in Los Angeles and rose slightly in San Francisco. Low-tier property prices are still on average 10% higher than one year earlier. Mid-tier and high-tier prices are 6% higher.

As in 2010, today’s price movement is the tail end of a mini-bubble, set into motion some 18 months earlier. This price rise was produced by short-lived speculator interference in 2013 (not a tax stimulus, as in 2009). This pricing activity is under pressure from insufficient personal incomes, rising fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rates and new construction.

Prices are expected to fall in the coming months, likely bottoming in mid-2016 and retreating toward the mean price trendline. The cooling of speculative fever and continually rising mortgage rates will prolong the falling trend in sales volume, pulling prices down in turn. Remember, real estate prices track and run with bond prices due to interest rate movement. A lag time of up to 12 months exists due to expectations of continued recent price movement — the sticky price phenomenon.

The graph tells the story – the higher-end market is ‘soft’, and only those with precision pricing are selling.

Posted by on Jan 8, 2015 in Forecasts, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 2 comments