These are through May, and though all three are at new record levels, we should see the usual year-end leveling the rest of the way:
Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’
It may feel like a slowdown, but houses are still selling! By the time every agent reports their July sales, we should be up to at least 275 sales for 2018:
NSDCC July Sales
The pricing increases have settled down, so if sellers don’t mind selling for about what the last guy got, they should be ok. Or if they have something special, there might still be a chance at a frenzy!Link to Brady story
Like the rest of us, former *NSYNC singer Lance Bass just isn’t ready to say — cue the music — “Bye, Bye, Bye” to the “Brady Bunch” house. The boy band legend is reportedly one of at least five bidders vying for a chance to buy the iconic house used to portray the home on the popular 1970s family show.
The house hit the market this month for the first time since 1973, and its owners are hoping to attract a buyer who will preserve the piece of Americana rather than tear it down, a real threat in the Studio City neighborhood where developers routinely tear down and rebuild.
According to Douglas Elliman realtor Ernie Carswell, five bidders got offers in before the midnight deadline Tuesday.
“We’re not going to accept the first big offer from a developer who wants to tear it down,” Carswell told the Los Angeles Times.
Bass hopes he’s the buyer they are looking for.
“I’m obviously obsessed with ‘The Brady Bunch.’ I mean, I grew up watching that show. Reruns!” Bass said on the “Big Brother” show “Off the Block.”
He said he plans to truly make it the Brady Bunch house.
“I’m going to turn it into the TV house, because you know it doesn’t have a second floor and all that kinda stuff, but I’m going to go back to the original, original house,” he said.
Listed at $1,885,000, the two-bedroom home is billed as America’s second most photographed home behind the White House.
Situated in Studio City’s Colfax Meadows, the home boasts a gated motor court and two master suites. According to records, Violet and George McCallister bought the house for $61,000 in 1973 when the “Brady Bunch” was still airing. While the interior never served as a set for the show, the home is like a time capsule, with decor unchanged since the early ’70s. It has a wet bar, a tall stone fireplace and a master bedroom with wall-to-wall hot pink Toile de Jouy wallpaper and matching bedspread.Link to listing
Pricing around San Diego slows down towards the end of the year – this isn’t the first time, though we are starting earlier than ever.
Combine the all-time-high pricing with higher mortgage rates and the cost of housing has gone up 17% this year alone, according to a stat I saw yesterday.
Or maybe it’s just the heat?
When I first saw this graph, I thought it was the perfect way to sum up the changes in the marketplace since the 2000-2009 era. Back then, people were younger, there were plenty of homes for sale, and prices were relatively affordable, so we always had a very fluid move-up and move-down market.
But to see that average tenure has doubled between 2009 and 2017 is striking.
Have the number of sales changed?
NSDCC Annual Sales of Detached Homes
Given the huge change in price and that more people are staying put than ever, it is shocking to see that sales have been relatively consistent in recent years.
How do you explain it?
It must mean that the demand is fueled by those who don’t have a house yet – first-timers, and those coming from out of town. It explains why they jump at buying when they see a good one – they don’t have one yet. Those who already have a house here aren’t as impressed.
The population has grown 25% in San Diego County since 2000, and 30yr-fixed mortgage rates are about half of what they were then. But for sales to be this strong when repeat movers are so scarce, is remarkable!
P.S. We’ve had 1,620 closings this year, with a median SP = $1,321,500.Link to Attom article
Hat tip to JT who sent in this doomy article about home sales:
Southern California home sales hit the brakes in June, falling to the lowest reading for the month in four years. Sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums dropped 11.8 percent year over year, as prices shot up to a record high, according to CoreLogic. The report covers Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.
Sales fell 1.1 percent compared with May, but the average change from May to June, going back to 1988, is a 6 percent gain.
The weakness was especially apparent in sales of newly built homes, which were 47 percent below the June average. Part of that is that builders are putting up fewer homes, so there is simply less to sell.
“A portion of last month’s year-over-year sales decline reflects one less business day for deals to be recorded compared with June 2017,” noted Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst. “But affordability and inventory constraints are likely the main culprits in last month’s sales slowdown, which applied to all six of the region’s counties and across most of the major price categories.”
We already saw that NSDCC sales in May and June were both down 20% YoY, but this month we’re hanging tough with last year!
There’s still time to get in before school starts!
Let’s examine by zip code where the market might be slowing recently. These are the detached-home sales for the second quarter, plus the current number of pendings in each area:
If the numbers for 2Q18 are remarkably under the first two columns, and the number of pendings are so low that the 3Q18 doesn’t look promising either, then you can figure that the market is soft, and getting softer in that zip code (Cardiff, Carlsbad SW, & Encinitas).
The pending counts have been dropping precipitously since June 11:
NSDCC All: -15%
While a lower number of pendings can be due to more closings from the fat part of the selling season, it not like we’re setting any sales records either. The NSDCC June sales are down 20%, year-over-year, just like they were in May.
Get Good Help!
We’re halfway through 2018 – let’s check on the predictions. Here is where Rob Dawg, Franklin Jones, Ash, and myself guessed what would happen this year:
My thoughts in December for 2018, plus extra stats:
I guessed earlier that NSDCC detached-home sales will drop 5% in 2018 – but that would still give us around 3,000 houses sold, which is a healthy amount, given that rates and prices are both expected to be higher. The median sales price, full of imperfections, should keep rising, and I’ll guess +5% in 2018.
Those same factors, plus a few more boomer liquidations, could also create a bull rush frenzy, with intense wrangling for decently-priced houses listed under $1,500,000. With more inventory, we could approach 3,200 sales again (3,084 NSDCC houses sold in 2017) .
The higher-end market is challenging too, but in the opposite direction. Today there are 374 NSDCC houses for sale listed over $2,000,000, and we sold about 50 per month in 2017.
We ended the year with 62% of the houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad being priced over $2,000,000, with a median list price of $2,495,000 overall.
We had 10% fewer listings in 2017 than in 2016, but 2% more sales!
Where are we now?
First-half NSDCC sales are down 11% year-over-year.
Median list price today is $2,295,000, which is down 9%, compared to December 27, 2017. Of the 935 houses for sale, 55% of them are priced over $2,000,000.
The 2017 NSDCC median sales price was $1,225,000, and the median sales price has been $1,325,000 for the first half of 2018, an 8% increase.
We’ve sold 317 houses over $2,000,000 in 2018, or about 53 per month.
Although we had 10% fewer listings last year than we had in 2016, we have had 9% more listings this year than in the first half of 2017.
Nine percent more listings, but 11% fewer sales? Expect that buyers will become increasingly picky – there are plenty of houses to go around!
Here are the NSDCC sales stats from the first six months of each year, going back to the beginning of the 2-out-of-5-year capital-gains tax exclusion – which helped trigger the ensuing bubble. I used the April rate because it was about the middle of the Jan-Jun time period:
Yes, sales are down 11% year-over-year, but note that we are selling nearly as many homes as we did when prices were in the $400,000s and $500,000s.
Back then did you guess that today’s NSDCC median sales price would be about 3x as high, at $1,324,000? We are seeing some market adjustments today, but we’re making about 1,700 new millionaires every day in America!
Where will pricing be in another 10-20 years?
Here we saw how the NSDCC sales have been down 9% this year – how have sales been county-wide? The closed sales between January and May this year are also down 8% compared to last year, in spite of there being 20% MORE houses listed for sale than in 2017!
The cheerleaders can’t claim that lower sales are due to lack of inventory!
San Diego County Detached-Homes Sales, Jan – May:
People want to believe that it takes longer to sell more expensive homes. But the NSDCC median days-on-market is 18 days this year, where the median SP is $1,325,000. Eight days faster in a sub-region where the median sales price is twice as much!