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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

New Peak

The North SD County Coastal region (Carlsbad to La Jolla) has 1,091 houses for sale currently – and 78% of them are listed over $1,000,000.  If you take Carlsbad out of the mix, then 90% of the homes for sale are listed over $1,000,000!

How do the 2014 sales compare?

graph (46)

Though the median sales price is at a new peak, sales remain strong. In spite of this year’s median SP being 20% higher, sales were 10% higher than in 1H11.

Here are the first-half (Jan-June) sales for each year:

Jan-Jun
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg DOM
# New Listings – 1H
2001
1,423
$570,000
52
3,297
2002
1,905
$619,562
159
3,171
2003
1,771
$690,000
61
3,063
2004
1,752
$935,500
47
2,920
2005
1,548
$975,000
58
2,891
2006
1,373
$990,450
65
3,547
2007
1,387
$1,000,000
71
3,119
2008
1,016
$936,250
76
3,009
2009
899
$795,000
78
2,877
2010
1,232
$825,000
75
2,966
2011
1,281
$845,000
84
3,046
2012
1,477
$815,000
86
2,545
2013
1,670
$919,950
51
2,790
2014
1,412
$1,014,000
50
2,700

The number of listings isn’t directly related to the number of sales, but is a great indicator. Look at how the number of new listings was declining until 2006, then as sellers sensed a peak, the inventory exploded. As long as new listings stay in check, buyers will probably stay in the hunt.

Posted by on Jul 15, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales, June 2014

2014-06-24 13.01.41

The national media keeps questioning the strength of the housing market, but locally the sales and pricing couldn’t be much better – at least for sellers.

This is the early count – when the late-reporters are complete, the number of June sales should be close to what they were at the peak frenzy last year:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, June

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $/sf
Avg. DOM
2010
257
$820,000
$384/sf
69
2011
251
$838,000
$373/sf
80
2012
339
$867,500
$368/sf
76
2013
333
$1,025,000
$453/sf
46
2014
297
$1,052,000
$482/sf
43

We are overdue for a cooling off period – will sales and pricing start to drift off?  Or will there be enough motivated sellers keeping their prices attractive that the market plows right through?

As long as rates stay around 4%, this could keep going!

Posted by on Jul 2, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

Market Bifurcation

la jolla sunset1

The homes in the north coastal region from La Jolla to Carlsbad have always been relatively expensive.

Of the 1,052 houses for sale today, 81% of them are priced over $1,000,000.

(Take Carlsbad out, and 92% are priced over $1,000,000).

But only 51% of the 1,233 NSDCC house sales closed this year have been $1M+.

It gives us about a 7.5-month supply of homes for sale priced OVER $1,000,000, and a 1.8-month supply of homes priced UNDER $1,000,000.

Whether you are buying or selling, get good help!

Posted by on Jun 18, 2014 in North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Frenzy Addicts

Now the red team is drinking the ivory tower kool-aid too.

Here is their latest post, with the secondary headline that reads - Recovery Fueled by Investors is Stalled Until Traditional Homebuyers Step Up:

http://www.redfin.com/research/reports/real-time-price-tracker/2014/price-tracker-may-2014.html

They call this ”the most disappointing metric of the month”:

redteam disappointed

Maybe it’s because I’m such an optimist, but I am happy to see sales this high – heck, with the rapid rise in prices, sales could be a lot worse.

Buyers are being misled to think it is disappointing to not be at frenzy levels.

This year our local sales around the San Diego north county coastal region have been in line with 2010/2011 levels, which should be good enough, considering how much higher prices are:

graph (44)

We know that sales are the precursor to the market’s direction, and as long as they stay relatively stable and similar to previous years, pricing might hold.

But the average pricing has been a bit erratic so far in 2014:

graph (45)

Buyers who read the mass media are starting to believe the market is ‘disappointing’, when really it’s been terrific for a post-frenzy period.  In most areas, we are at record prices and sales are holding up!

Posted by on Jun 13, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

SD County Sales & Pricing

may

Two things you don’t hear when ‘analysts’ are describing 2014 home sales:

1. We are comparing Y-o-Y numbers to one of the hottest frenzies of all-time.

2. Sales are down because sellers are asking too much.

Instead, we get this explanation below: We have higher inventory, but supply falls short of demand so we have lower sales. (?)

From DQ:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA140611.aspx

La Jolla, CA—Southern California home sales lost momentum in May, falling from both April and a year earlier as investor demand fell and buyers continued to face inventory, affordability and credit constraints. Prices climbed again but at roughly half the year-ago pace, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 19,556 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 2.3 percent from 20,008 sales in April, and down 15.1 percent from 23,034 sales in May last year, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

On average, sales have increased 5.8 percent between April and May since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Sales have fallen on a year-over-year basis for eight consecutive months. May sales have ranged from a low of 16,917 in May 2008 to a high of 35,557 in May 2005. Last month’s sales were 23.0 percent below the May average of 25,393 sales.

“We expected rising prices to unlock more inventory this spring and that’s happened. But the supply of homes for sale still falls short of demand in many markets, contributing to a rise in prices and a below-average sales pace. The drop in affordability has also hampered activity, helping to explain how sales could be lower now even though today’s inventory is higher than a year ago. The recent dip in mortgage rates will help fuel demand, adding pressure to home prices. But the sort of price spikes we saw this time last year – annual gains of 20 percent or more – are less likely today given affordability constraints, higher inventory and the drop-off in investor purchases,” said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst.

Posted by on Jun 12, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 10 comments

More on NSDCC May Sales

sales drop first

Here’s more data on last month’s detached-home sales around North SD County’s coastal region.

The new MLS doesn’t have the same statistics available, but for some reason it is crazy about reporting the sales volume everywhere, for which the average realtor has no use.

But comparing the sales volume does help show why this year feels so much different than last year for realtors, and others in the business whose income is based on a percentage.  Even though yesterday’s average pricing was up 13% year-over-year, the overall sales volume was down 33% from May, 2013:

NSDCC May Sales:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Total Sales Volume
2010
249
$800,000
$254,103,668
2011
243
$850,000
$276,818,522
2012
289
$821,000
$320,086,154
2013
362
$943,500
$441,162,967
2014
251
$950,000
$296,845,249

The market has shifted from distressed properties to a Make-Me-Move environment, which buyers were willing to endure last year when prices AND rates were substantially less.

The number of new listings this year is about 4% fewer than last year, but as you can tell by the drop in sales – it is different now.  Only the sellers who are willing to offer an attractive value are selling. Get good help!

Posted by on Jun 6, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

NSDCC May Sales & Pricing

carlsbad

Earlier in the year the NSDCC averages were touching $500/sf, but April finished at $448/sf.

It looks like the typical number of sales in May should be in the mid-200s, and last year’s 362 sales was a sign of how wild the frenzy was in early-2013.

NSDCC May Sales:

Year
# of Sales
Avg $/sf
Avg DOM
2010
249
$388/sf
69
2011
243
$383/sf
71
2012
289
$380/sf
75
2013
362
$416/sf
42
2014
250
$469/sf
39

If it weren’t for the short-sale fraud and those blog guys talking smack, the average pricing might have started rising in 2011 and 2012 – which would have mellowed the 23% increase over the last 24 months.

Posted by on Jun 5, 2014 in Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

April Sales & Pricing – SD County

Dataquick’s April report was released yesterday, and it showed a now-modest 8.7% year-over-year increase in the San Diego County median sales price:

socalaprilsales

http://dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA140513.aspx

An excerpt:

“The housing market’s pulse quickened a bit in April. If the inventory grows more, which we consider likely, it’s going to make it a lot easier for sales to reach at least an average level, which we haven’t seen in more than seven years. There are certainly factors undermining housing demand, including affordability constraints, credit challenges and less investment activity. But there are considerable forces fueling demand, too: Employment is rising, families are growing, and more people can qualify to buy again after losing a home to foreclosure or a short sale over the past eight years,” said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst.

At least he mixed in a few of the positives with the typical negative reasons.

The median price is easily skewed just by the lack of cheaper homes for sale.  Today there are 2,551 homes listed for sale under the $435,000 median sales price, and 4,638 listed over $435,000.  The average list price in San Diego County today is $1,018,616!

The April sales were a result of decisions made in January through March.  When breaking down today’s numbers, sellers should be less optimistic.  The number of homes not selling has risen 10% in the last month, and asking prices have stalled in the last five weeks:

inventorypercentiles

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego/

Data released over the next few months should better reflect a flat pricing trend, at least in San Diego County – let’s just hope it isn’t a flat spin.  The lazy reporting could catch people off guard – epsecially sellers who loiter into the summer months before sharpening their pencil.

Posted by on May 14, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

Two-Year Change By Zip Code

Let’s look closer at the individual neighborhoods, and see how sales and average-pricing-per-sf have changed for detached-home sales that occurred in the March 1st-to-April 30th period:

Town or Area
Zip Code
2012
2013
2014
2YR % chg $/sf
Cardiff
92007
13/$475
18/$523
7/$799
+68%
NW Carlsbad
92008
44/$271
38/$359
34/$361
+33%
SE Carlsbad
92009
96/$241
106/$267
79/$315
+31%
NE Carlsbad
92010
17/$236
24/$275
19/$304
+29%
SW Carlsbad
92011
52/$271
54/$328
40/$361
+33%
Carmel Vly
92130
69/$318
115/$364
83/$407
+28%
Del Mar
92014
25/$680
29/$677
39/$713
+5%
Encinitas
92024
74/$371
85/$413
69/$528
+42%
La Jolla
92037
66/$554
66/$645
50/$740
+34%
RSF
67+91
37/$400
43/$452
39/$530
+33%
Solana Bch
92075
17/$424
24/$578
12/$657
+55%
NSDCC
All Above
510/$361
602/$412
471/$481
+33%
Poway
92064
92/$252
90/$286
89/$321
+27%
S. San Marcos
92078
91/$197
90/$229
88/$260
+32%
PB/MB
92109
20/$454
41/$543
43/$603
+33%
West RB
92127
95/$253
97/$304
79/$310
+23%
East RB
92128
76/$256
112/$292
87/$322
+26%
RP
92129
78/$254
69/$291
62/$322
+27%
Scripps Rch
92131
47/$261
51/$291
54/$311
+19%

A steady march upward – virtually every area has seen their average pricing rise 1% to 2% per month for two years solid.

We are back where we started – my first blog post from September 24, 2005: http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2005/09/24/20-25-appreciation-per-year-how-can-that-happen/

Posted by on May 13, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

‘Unsustainable and Unhealthy’

Yunnie says it’s ’unhealthy’, but sellers would disagree.  From MND:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05122014_nar_metro_home_sales.asp

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the price trend is favorable. “The cooling rate of price growth is needed to preserve favorable housing affordability conditions in the future, but we still need more new-home construction to fully alleviate the inventory shortages in much of the country,” he said. “Limited inventory is creating unsustainable and unhealthy price growth in some large markets, notably on the West Coast.”

san-diego caThe five most expensive housing markets in the first quarter were the San Jose metro area, where the median existing single-family price was $808,000; San Francisco, $679,800; Honolulu, $672,300; Anaheim-Santa Ana, $669,800; and San Diego, where the median price was $483,000.

Posted by on May 12, 2014 in Sales and Price Check | 7 comments