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(the title should have been ‘Jan-plus Sales Roundup)

Let’s keep the stats coming; here the updated Y-O-Y comparisons for the period Jan. 1 thru Feb. 18 (and 2010 will have some additional late-reporters):

The inventory has been lower during the latest counts, yet the sales are improved in all but La Jolla, which was only off by two. In my opinion, this is a strong indicator of a healthy market, and why I think that if there were more inventory, the sales would be even better/stronger.

When examining the pricing maze, you can also see a couple of bad comps throw a seller or buyer for a loop if they’re not aware of the background. 

In a family-friendly, beach-close area like Terramar, where there has always been very low turnover, the last two sales on Los Robles could under-state today’s value, and the relatively under-satisfied demand around the beach (for cheaper homes) could surprise the next sale.

There’s also a follow-up to the Black Swan open house at the end of this video:

This listing shows how specific (or how fragile?) the market is these days.

The same floor plan around the corner had about 10 offers on it, and closed last month over list price, for $720,000:

 http://www.sdlookup.com/Pictures-090066614

Yet this one isn’t having the same good fortune:

I mentioned in the video that it needed $20,000 to $25,000 – that’s to get it in good enough condition to move in.  The eventual owner could easily spend $50,000+ in improvements over the first year, and today’s buyers don’t want the hassle.

If you’re only willing to consider buying the houses in excellent condition, it really narrows down the selection – and inflicts bidding wars in virtually every case.

The late-reporters will add a few extras, but here are the preliminary detached sales numbers for January, 2010:

Here are the SFR stats from the MLS and foreclosureradar in those same zip codes for last month – 24% of the MLS sales were REO resales or short sales:

REO resales on MLS: 21
Short sales on MLS: 14
Trustee sales, REO: 32
Trustee sales, bought by 3rd party: 18
Trustee sales, cancelled: 56

If it weren’t for Del Mar and La Jolla’s cost-per-sf numbers dropping like they did Y-O-Y, the psf numbers would have been closer. As long as the low-inventory environment persists, the stats should look fairly steady.

We’re past the holiday season, the Chargers have checked out, and February is ten days away. 

Let’s review current market conditions:

Trustee Sales for North SD County Coastal SFRs (Carlsbad to La Jolla)

There are more properties on the NOTS auction list (444) than on the NOD list (337), which at casual glance might make you think we’re winding down. 

But the NOTS list is loaded with a rolling group of old defaulters that get postponed each month – 82% of the properties on the auction list have had at least three postponements.

SINCE DECEMBER 1st:

New NODs: 122

New NOTSs: 88

Trustee Sales:  67

Trustee-Sale Cancellations:  75

MLS sales: 312

(255 regular, 35 REOs, 22 short sales)

The slow-drip system is working beautifully for the banks.  Virtually all of the 444 auction properties have had a sale date since December 1st, yet only 142 had some resolution (32%), and that’s being kind – many of those cancelled will be getting back in line.  

The blob of defaulted properties is impeding the foreclosure channels with delays and uncertainty. Buyers hoping to snag a trustee-sale deal will need to be very patient.

We are following twenty properties that already had sale dates this month, and only one ended up on the ’steps (sold to a third party), and the rest postponed.

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Neg-Am Recasts

We’ve all seen the charts, there are $134 billion in option-ARMs that are expected to recast over the next two years.  About 1 out of 3 option-ARMs are delinquent or in foreclosure now, so we’ll see boatloads of short sales and REO/flipper properties being offered for years to come.

How many in your area?  I’m going to try and obtain more breakdowns by zip, but the last count showed that 5.5% of the properties with mortgage in Encinitas, Carmel Valley, and RSF had a neg-am or option-ARM.

Recast chart

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Flippers Are Active

With the lack of quality inventory available, flippers have an open playing field.  But with postponements dominating the court house steps, there are only 1-2 trustee sales per day being bought by a third-party of properties from Carlsbad to La Jolla, which doesn’t sound like much.  But when compared to December’s total of 238 SFRs sold on the MLS, we could see flippers wind up being 10% (or more) of the market in 2010.

I’m working on the count of recently-flipped properties.

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Sandicor’s New Public Website

Our local MLS provider, Sandicor, has had a new public-MLS website ”in development” for the last two years, and should be ready in the next few months.  According to sources, all they need to do is determine how to brand it, and who is going to pay for it – though that sounds nebulous.

The Houston Board of Realtors has pioneered the public-MLS, including a realtor-feedback feature, which Sandicor is considering.  I heartily recommend it, as realtors we need to provide a way to police ourselves.

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Recent MLS Sales

Just in case there was some influence on early-December sales from the tax credit, here’s how the Dec 15 to Jan 15 period compares to previous years:

The basic sales stats look decent, in spite of the calamity.

How is the 2010 market comparing with previous starts?

North SD County Coastal Detached Homes (from Carlsbad to La Jolla), during Jan. 1-11:

The lower number of listings is contributing to the constricted-inventory conditions, and the average list-price-per-sf is reflecting exuberance on behalf of the early listers – we’ll see how they do.

The very-low number of closings makes it look like things fell apart towards the end of 2009, but was there a big rally to close before year-end?

North SD County Coastal Detached, DECEMBER:

Yep, there was a push to close at the end of 2009 – the industry is starved for transactions.

Over 2009 it looks like we just stumbled along in North SD County Coastal region, in spite of being 18% off peak pricing. Here are the yearly totals:

North SD County Coastal Detached, YEAR

If there were more well-priced properties, we could sell twice as many homes. Back in the day, everything was selling, even the crappy deals. Today the buyers are much more discerning, and if the price ain’t right, no sale.

As we wind up 2009, here are more sales statistics.  You don’t see much extra benefit from the tax credit in the November closings – there was only 10% increase in SFR sales, Y-O-Y, and 29% increase in condo sales.  Did more pending sales get pushed into December or beyond?

Or without the tax credit, would sales have declined Y-O-Y?

It was mentioned that these listing agents might be giving the sellers a holiday break, but most of these were marked pending in the first week or two of December.  Hanukkah maybe? 

I guess it’s possible, we will have to see what happens right after the holidays. Let’s follow-up in a few weeks.  The house on Stone Haven (with moving van in front) closed today for $1.38 – list price was $1.449M.

Here are a few more:

Part Two – A listing that gets marked ‘pending’ probably doesn’t mean much, other than there are buyers and sellers that have found agreeable terms, for now. 

But two things are somewhat surprising:

1.  The time of year for activity to spark up.

2.  What you get for the money.

These sellers aren’t really dumping on price to effect a sale – none of these look like “giveaway” pricing.  Could it be that “waiting it out”, worked?

Here’s a youtube tour around Del Mar and Solana Beach:

P.S. The second house (on the corner) had lowered its price from $2,090,000 to $1,749,500.

Local Boy wondered how Carlsbad was holding up – here’s a snapshot of the fourth quarter detached stats for North SD County Coastal region. The area category called ‘High’ is RSF, Del Mar, Solana Beach, and La Jolla. The 2008 stats were based on Oct. 1st to Dec. 18th:

With roughly 10% declines in pricing, sales have increased 28%, 40%, 38%, and 74%, respectfully. It appears there will be some momentum rolling into 2010!