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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

NSDCC Spring Kick Report

The overall environment can be sized up by comparing how many houses have sold, compared to the number of new listings hitting the market.

A surge of new listings can set buyers back on their heels. We could make that case about what happened last spring, when we had 100 more NSDCC listings hit early, and sales dropped a bit from the previous year:

NSDCC Action Between Jan 1 and April 10th

Year
# of Closed Sales
# of New Listings
CS/NL
% of Sales Over $1M
2013
765
1,481
52%
40%
2014
678
1,408
48%
51%
2015
730
1,445
51%
58%
2016
639
1,550
41%
58%
2017
648
1,368
47%
61%

The 41% from last year looks like the anomaly now though, and this year looks stronger than ever, with sales maintaining last year’s pace in spite of almost 200 fewer listings! All while the lower end has been disappearing – this year we have 61% of our sales over $1,000,000!

Posted by on Apr 13, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales, March 2017

We hear about the ‘tight inventory’ across the country, but the perception is affected by how fast homes are selling – there aren’t many houses just sitting around not selling, which gives the appearance of ‘tight’.

Let’s measure it correctly by comparing the total number of houses listed for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

NSDCC Total 1st Quarter Listings

1st Qtr
Total # of New Listings
Median List Price
2013
1,288
$1,175,000
2014
1,235
$1,289,950
2015
1,276
$1,302,950
2016
1,394
$1,490,000
2017
1,223
$1,495,000

The number of NSDCC houses listed for sale hasn’t dropped significantly from previous 1Qs – the 1,223 is only 4% below the average of the last five years. Does that mean the number of sales should be comparable to previous years?

Here is the first look at last month’s NSDCC detached-home sales:

NSDCC March Sales

March
Total # of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $$/sf
Avg. DOM
# Sold <800K
2013
299
$840,000
$404/sf
49
129
2014
219
$1,040,000
$518/sf
51
62
2015
294
$1,137,500
$502/sf
46
73
2016
245
$1,145,000
$524/sf
42
57
2017
229
$1,110,000
$481/sf
42
41

Sales last month were 11% below the March average of the last five years.  Double-digit changes should get our attention!  But it is very understandable, once we look deeper.

The lower-end is where the discrepancy is – the number of houses sold under $800,000 last month was 44% below the 5-year average.

The lower-end market is disappearing.

We’re already a higher-end market, and going higher.  As a result, sales could taper off as we find an equilibrium.

It’s not like there aren’t houses for sale. They’re just expensive!

Today we have 822 on the market between La Jolla and Carlsbad – with a median LP of $2,295,000!  Only 97 of those (12%) are listed under $1,000,000!

One other note. The $524/sf average last March included this house that closed for a whopping $5,869/sf.  Take that out, and the March, 2016 average is $502/sf, the same as the previous year.

Posted by on Apr 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

San Diego Tiered Pricing

It looks like pricing might be getting more squishy on the higher-end homes.

We’ve seen everything above $672,984 but below $1,000,000 be hot and rising, yet the high-tier Case-Shiller Index has been flat for months – which means the ultra-high-end stuff is really sloshy.

What can sellers do?

  1. Make your house easier to show, especially on the weekends.
  2. Keep doing home improvements while on the market.
  3. Respond to offers promptly.
  4. Counter-offer in big chunks (more than 1%) to keep buyers enthusiastic.

For buyers, the thrill of making an offer dies off quickly. Try to make a deal within 2 counters or three days, whichever comes first!

Posted by on Feb 22, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

San Diego County Detached-Homes

Tom asked for some thoughts on the county-wide market!  Though we had a few more listings in 2016 than in recent years, the closed sales were the highest of the last three years – and within 1,000 of the frenzied 2013 total.

San Diego County Detached-Home Listings and Sales

Year
# of Listings
# of Sales
Median LP
Median SP
SP:LP
2013
33,077
24,910
$459,990
$455,000
98.9%
2014
33,752
22,101
$499,999
$495,000
99.0%
2015
33,040
23,733
$539,000
$529,000
98.1%
2016
34,015
23,943
$569,000
$560,000
98.4%

The SP:LP ratio is down slightly, but for the median sales price to be within 1.6% of the median list price on 23,943 sales is pretty remarkable – especially when the median sales price has risen 23% since 2013!

Save

Posted by on Feb 7, 2017 in Frenzy, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Tom Tarrant | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales

There have been press releases this week about December sales being down, and our cheerleader was happy to blame the higher rates and low inventory:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market’s best year since the Great Recession ended on a healthy but somewhat softer note. “Solid job creation throughout 2016 and exceptionally low mortgage rates translated into a good year for the housing market,” he said. “However, higher mortgage rates and home prices combined with record low inventory levels stunted sales in much of the country in December.”

Added Yun, “While a lack of listings and fast rising home prices was a headwind all year, the surge in rates since early November ultimately caught some prospective buyers off guard and dimmed their appetite or ability to buy a home as 2016 came to an end.”

He forgot about the TRID hangover from November, 2016 that pushed additional sales into December.  Our sales count last month was 235, which was just under the 253 sales in December, 2015.  I’ll take it!

But the quarterly totals would be a better gauge – these were my guesses from July, 2016 for the second half of the year:

NSDCC Quarterly sales numbers (with estimates):

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
850?
4Q
832
664
666
662
660?
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
2,975?

Here’s how it turned out:

NSDCC Quarterly sales numbers:

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
795
4Q
832
664
666
662
739
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
3,019

The 739 sales in 4Q16 exceeded my guess by 12%, and the momentum from 2016 should continue to drive sales in 2017.  We’ve already had 112 NSDCC closed sales this month, and have a week of closings left to catch last January’s 168 sales.  Full steam ahead!

Posted by on Jan 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Trump and Local Real Estate

The inauguration is almost here – Trump will be your president on Friday!

How will he affect our local real estate market?

His detractors are aghast over his tweets, but Trump keeps them coming.  In spite of their bombastic nature, I think we are already numb to his tweets, or at least getting used to them being part of the landscape.

At this point, I don’t think the Trump Effect will have much, if any, impact on us – positive or negative.  If rates stay under 5% (today’s 30Y is 4.12%), buyers should shrug it off and keep buying.

I also think sellers and agents are getting smarter about price, which will help tremendously.  As you saw in the previous post, they might screw it up a bit once they hit the market, but eventually buyers and sellers should both be happy with a modest appreciation rate of 2% to 4% this year.

The #1 thing that should keep our market stable is the buyers’ focus on getting the right house for the long-term.  Before the 2007 downturn, buyers thought they could always sell for a gain, and, as a result, any house would work for the short-term.  But after our so-called ‘crisis’, we recognize prices can go down – but it only hurts if you sell.

Sales and prices may bounce around, but with the focus on the long-term as a foundation, our market should keep cooking.

Posted by on Jan 17, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

Measuring the Start of 2017

Every prognosticator has released their cautious predictions for the year, but how will we know what’s happening in the meantime?

  1. How will buyers know if it’s safe to go back in the water?
  2. How will sellers know if they can pack another 5% on to their price?

There are two ways we can get a sense of the initial enthusiasm, and by the end of January it should become more clear on which way the market is breaking.  Last year, our start was already slightly slower than the previous two years, but close enough that there wasn’t any panic.  Buyers kept buying, and for the most part, they paid what the sellers wanted.

NSDCC Monthly Sales

Year
December
January
February
Totals
2013-14
211
182
180
573
2014-15
250
165
170
585
2015-16
253
168
144
565
2016-17
215

If we close 150 sales in each of the next two months, and hit 515 for our 3-month total, I think we can say our market is surviving. But we can dig deeper to see what will have caused those results.

January New Listings and New Pendings

Year
January New Listings
January New Pendings
2014
307
176
2015
273
163
2016
320
140

Yes, there will be several old listings being ‘re-freshed’ this year – in the first week of last year, about 70% of the new listings had been re-inputted.  But it is like that every year.

Keep your eye on the number of new pendings. If we can get close to last year’s 140, we should be fine, but the wait-and-see trend has been building.

The new listings will play a role – if there is a surge of fresh meat, it could cause rate-sensitive buyers to jump in now if they see something decent. But rates should moderate, keeping buyers picky.  If there aren’t many current owners willing to sell, then we could have fewer pendings but healthy conditions. Let’s compare the two as we go!

Posted by on Jan 3, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

NSDCC November Sales

2016-12-04-13-59-06-2

Here’s the update on last month.  There were two fewer business days in 2014, and one less business day in 2013 and 2015 (same # in 2012).

With both sales AND pricing being this strong, the momentum should carry over to 2017…..and I think we’ll get off to a fast start too.  There has to be some motivated sellers scooting closer to the exits, and buyers who are anxious to lock in a rate and price before they get any worse.

We should be at full speed by March!

NSDCC November Sales

Year
# of Sales
Sales Per B-Day
Median SP
Average $/sf
2012
241
12.68
$885,000
$415/sf
2013
187
10.39
$1,030,000
$474/sf
2014
172
10.12
$1,007,450
$491/sf
2015
193
10.72
$1,187,500
$520/sf
2016
227
11.95
$1,265,000
$544/sf

Posted by on Dec 6, 2016 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments