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Jim Klinge
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Carlsbad, CA 92011

Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

NSDCC December Sales

Hard to get too concerned about a 10% drop in sales YoY, when inventory was down more than that, and the rest of the stats held up nicely:

NSDCC December Sales

Number of Sales
Avg. Cost Per SF
Median SP
Avg Days on Market

It looks similar to when the frenzy died down in 2013 – not due to lack of demand (as we’ve seen since), but because the cupboards were bare.

Posted by on Jan 10, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

NSDCC November Sales

Much like in the last presidential election cycle of 2012, the November, 2016 sales were high, and led to a frenzied selling season the following spring (we had 4% more NSDCC sales in 1H17 than in 1H16).  But sales were solid last month too, which hopefully means Spring 2018 will be lively.

NSDCC November Sales

# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median Sales Price
Median DOM

This is only one-month’s worth of data, but these stats suggest that pricing may have topped off, and we’re finding an equilibrium.  The average $$/sf and median sales price from last month are closer to those from 2015 than 2016.

It’s interesting that the median days-on-market is almost half of what it was five years ago!  There’s not much hesitation in buyers these days.

Posted by on Dec 12, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Appraisers’ Opinion of Appreciation

Appraisers in Southern California get together and evaluate the same 300 homes every six months – here’s how their values compare to those of CoreLogic (San Diego has the closest gap):


An excerpt:

Elsewhere in the region, here’s how the battle-of-the-index gaps shaped up since 2012 …

Los Angeles County: Appraisers say up 58 percent; CoreLogic says 72 percent.

Orange County: Appraisers say up 44 percent; CoreLogic says 55 percent.

San Diego County: Appraisers say up 50 percent; CoreLogic says 56 percent.

Ventura County: Appraisers say up 45 percent; CoreLogic says 53 percent.

Now, these gaps may partially be a reflection of the often-bemoaned shortage of “affordable” homes to buy.

Southern California’s painfully thin supply of homes at the lower-end of the price spectrum has distorted indexes like CoreLogic’s median. These metrics end up reflecting a buyer’s willingness to pay up for the higher-priced housing that’s on the market. This statistical pattern doesn’t mean all home values are up at the median’s skyward pace.

Yes, it’s not totally shocking these appreciation gaps — man-vs.-machine — exist in the first place. Remember, appraisers get paid to be real estate’s party poopers — protecting overzealous lenders from overlending on overvalued properties.

So by nature, appraisers are … let’s say … skimpy! Still, their cautious viewpoint can’t be easily ignored, since they often have the power to kill a prospective home purchase with a low valuation.

Plus, the collective wisdom of appraisers is especially noteworthy as Southern California’s eye-catching home-price gains continue.


Posted by on Dec 10, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 4 comments

NAR 2018 Forecast

The N.A.R. Annual Conference is wrapping up this weekend.  Yunnie revealed the N.A.R. Forecast for next year:

Existing-home sales will finish 2017 at a pace of 5.47 million, the best volume in 11 years, but only a scant 0.4 percent higher than last year’s 5.45 million, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). In 2018, NAR predicts existing-home sales will rise by 3.7 percent to 5.67 million.

NAR also forecast a 5.5 percent increase in the national median existing-home price for this year and next year. However, the trade group also noted that first-time buyers accounted for only 34 percent of sales over the past year, the fourth lowest level since NAR began tracking this date 36 years ago.

“The lack of inventory has pushed up home prices by 48 percent from the low point in 2011, while wage growth over the same period has been only 15 percent,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Despite improving confidence this year from renters that now is a good time to buy a home, the inability for them to do so is causing them to miss out on the significant wealth gains that homeowners have benefitted from through rising home values.”

Yun also forecast single-family housing starts to rise by 9.4 percent to 950,000 next year. New single-family home sales are likely to total 606,000 this year and rise to around 690,000 in 2018, Yun added, with an extra prediction that mortgage rates will gradually climb towards 4.50 percent by the end of 2018.

He did alright predicting sales for this year.  Last December, he forecast 5.5 million sales for 2017, and he says we’re on a pace for 5.47 million.  He also predicted that the median sales price would drop 4% too, but he didn’t include an update on how we’ll end up for 2017.  Our San Diego Case-Shiller Index should wind up about 8% higher year-over-year.

We also have our new president – nothing on twitter about her plans though:

After an exhaustive nationwide search for the new CEO of the N.A.R., it turns out, he was already in the building.  Bob was the right-hand man to his predecesor, Dale Stinton, a devout Zillow hater but who did nothing to challenge.  Bob promised to turn the association upside-down, and after three months of preparing for this moment, here’s what he came up with:


Posted by on Nov 5, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Realtor, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

More on September Sales

From the C.A.R. press release:

“While it’s encouraging that statewide home sales improved both monthly and annually, the year-over-year sales rate is losing steam, reflecting the persistent shortage of homes for sale and an easing of concern over a surge in mortgage rates,” said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh. “Additionally, for the areas that have been affected by the recent wildfires, we anticipate sales will pull back in those regions as damages are assessed and replacement efforts are coordinated.”

We’ve discussed how fewer homes for sale could be the sole cause for a drop in sales.  Can we learn something by comparing the change in sales count to the change in inventory!

Rich shows San Diego County inventory down 2% MoM, and down 16% YoY:

San Diego County sales down 16.7% MoM, and down 4.3% YoY:

Here are the ratios in an easier-to-read comparison:


SD Inventory
SD Sales

A year ago we were in a presidential election cycle – I’m not sure data from that era means much today.  But a 17% drop in September sales from August when inventory only fell 2% is probably worth noting.

The 2% inventory drop didn’t change the selection much, but with 17% fewer sales, it means that the homes for sale must not be as appealing as before.

Posted by on Oct 19, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Gap Between Median List and Sale Prices

Reader hema-mendo wondered about the mega-gap between the NSDCC median list price, and median sales price for the last 30 days:

I don’t get it. Why is the spread so wide?

It is a bit alarming to see more than a million-dollar gap between the two:

NSDCC median list price: $2,300,000

NSDCC median sales price, last 30 days: $1,245,300

Half of the current listings – and 83% of the sales – are under $2,300,000!  None of the supply-and-demand economics seem to apply to the high-end sellers and their agents – they are happy to sit and wait……for something.

Most probably think it just takes time before the right young couple with 2.2 kids comes along some day.  But the numbers are daunting.

A median list price means we have 402 houses listed over $2,300,000, and there were 41 sales of the same over the last 30 days – let’s call it a 10-month supply.  But it’s been this way for years, and no one seems to mind.

This is what happens when virtually everyone on the market is an elective seller, and is loaded with equity.  Once a house hits the open market, the ego takes over because now the sellers’ family and friends know the price.  Unless the reason for selling is one of the Big Three (death, divorce, or job transfer), the seller’s ego insists on defending that price, even though nobody has looked at their home for weeks or months.

Waiting is much easier on the ego than having to dump on price.

Posted by on Oct 17, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

Boom-Bust Comparison

Good to see the California crash of the early 1990s get a mention here. It was a hum-dinger for its time – but they note below that the full recovery only took eight years too.

With home prices nearly back to where they were when the housing crisis began, CoreLogic’s principal economist Molly Boesel compares the duration of the recent cycle to those of other downturns.  While there hasn’t been a comparable period of performance nationwide, she looks at several regional ones.

After hitting peak in 2006, the national price level fell for five years, finally reaching bottom in March 2011.  Most other sources set the date for the bottom of the market to exactly a year later which may indicate they are using inflation adjusted numbers.  From peak to trough, prices fell 33 percent nationally. As of July 2017, CoreLogic data shows prices were approximating the 2006 level.

Boesel compares these numbers to those of the Texas oil bust in the mid-1980’s which resulted in a 16 percent decline over 3.5 years. The peak to recovery cycle in that downturn took nearly nine years.  In the early 1990s in California, defense and manufacturing job losses led to home price declines in that state. After falling by 15 percent over five and a half years, home prices in California fully recovered after eight years.  The U.S. home price decreases that started in 2006 were twice as severe as these two regional declines.

While national home price numbers are nearly back to their peak, the recovery is far from even. Nevada, where prices dropped the farthest of any state, 60 percent, the 11-year period that has elapsed has left the state 27 percent short of its March 2006 peak.

In Colorado, on the other hand, prices fell 14 percent from an August 2007 peak but have now surpassed that peak by 42 percent.  Boesel calls Colorado “an extreme case” of rapidly rising prices, but says 34 states are now above their pre-crisis home price levels.

Boesel says inflation should also be factored into the pace of recovery.  From the peak in housing prices through this past July, the inflation has totaled just under 18 percent. When home prices are adjusted for that, the trough was deeper, down 40 percent from the beginning of the cycle, and the recovery shallower; prices remain 17 percent off the peak.

Posted by on Oct 17, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Tipping Point?

LOS ANGELES (Sept. 26) – Even with a strong performance in August closed escrow sales, California pending home sales stalled for the second consecutive month, which suggests a softening in the housing market in the upcoming months, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

As August marks the end of the peak home-buying season, the housing market is showing signs of slowing as REALTORS® reported fewer floor calls, listing appointments, and client presentations. Open house traffic, however, remained strong in August, C.A.R.’s August Market Pulse Survey found.

Pending home sales data:

• Based on signed contracts, year-over-year statewide pending home sales fell in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* declining 3.5 percent from 121.3 in August 2016 to 117.0 in August 2017. California pending home sales also declined down on a monthly basis, decreasing 2.0 percent from the July index of 119.4.

• Pending home sales have declined on an annual basis for seven of the last eight months so far this year. After a solid run-up of pending sales growth in April, May, and July, continued housing inventory issues and affordability constraints may have pushed the market to a tipping point, suggesting the pace of growth will begin to slow in the fall.

• Pending home sales were down 3.8 percent from the previous year in Southern California. Only Orange (1.8 percent) and San Bernardino (2.8 percent) counties posted a year-to-year increase. Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Diego counties registered lower annual pending sales of 1.7 percent, 10.3 percent, and 12.7 percent, respectively.

• C.A.R.’s Market Velocity Index – home sales relative to the number of new listings coming on line each month to replenish that sold inventory, or market indicator of future price appreciation – indicates that home prices should continue to stay strong as home sales continue to outstrip new listings, putting upward pressure on home prices through the fall.

• The Market Velocity Index increased from 59 to 69, indicating that there were 69 percent more homes sold than there were new listings. In other words, the supply of homes available for sale continued to drop, which will make the remaining units more competitive as net supply has deteriorated by roughly 45,000 units this year.

Posted by on Oct 6, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC September Sales, Preliminary

Here’s the preliminary data for detached-home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad last month:

# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP

With there being some similarity between this year and the Frenzy of 2013, we might see some resemblance next year to what we saw in 2014 – scattered and varying data on pricing.

When is the best time to sell?  When everyone else isn’t!


Posted by on Oct 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Frenzy of 2017

Let’s examine Rich’s other charts to see how divergent our San Diego market has been lately, comparing to the last three years.  In spite of much-higher pricing, the raw number of homes for sale has crossed under the paltry few we had during the Frenzy of 2013, and into uncharted territory:

Yet, the volume of sales has been strong – and see June :

The rest of the year looks OK too, though this is for the whole county:

There will be sellers – especially on the higher-end – who didn’t know how motivated they were until now.  Will they lower their price, or wait and take their chances next year? The market couldn’t be much better than now!

Posted by on Sep 25, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Rich Toscano, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments