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Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

San Diego Tiered Pricing

These are through May, and though all three are at new record levels, we should see the usual year-end leveling the rest of the way:

Posted by on Aug 10, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

NSDCC July Sales and Pricing

It may feel like a slowdown, but houses are still selling! By the time every agent reports their July sales, we should be up to at least 275 sales for 2018:

NSDCC July Sales

Year
July # of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median Sales Price
Avg. Days on Market
2014
271
$451/sf
$1,018,000
46
2015
321
$458/sf
$1,025,000
41
2016
270
$504/sf
$1,105,000
34
2017
260
$529/sf
$1,243,250
45
2018
261
$534/sf
$1,285,000
42

The pricing increases have settled down, so if sellers don’t mind selling for about what the last guy got, they should be ok.  Or if they have something special, there might still be a chance at a frenzy!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Link to Brady story

Like the rest of us, former *NSYNC singer Lance Bass just isn’t ready to say — cue the music — “Bye, Bye, Bye” to the “Brady Bunch” house. The boy band legend is reportedly one of at least five bidders vying for a chance to buy the iconic house used to portray the home on the popular 1970s family show.

The house hit the market this month for the first time since 1973, and its owners are hoping to attract a buyer who will preserve the piece of Americana rather than tear it down, a real threat in the Studio City neighborhood where developers routinely tear down and rebuild.

According to Douglas Elliman realtor Ernie Carswell, five bidders got offers in before the midnight deadline Tuesday.

“We’re not going to accept the first big offer from a developer who wants to tear it down,” Carswell told the Los Angeles Times.

Bass hopes he’s the buyer they are looking for.

“I’m obviously obsessed with ‘The Brady Bunch.’ I mean, I grew up watching that show. Reruns!” Bass said on the “Big Brother” show “Off the Block.”

He said he plans to truly make it the Brady Bunch house.

“I’m going to turn it into the TV house, because you know it doesn’t have a second floor and all that kinda stuff, but I’m going to go back to the original, original house,” he said.

Listed at $1,885,000, the two-bedroom home is billed as America’s second most photographed home behind the White House.

Situated in Studio City’s Colfax Meadows, the home boasts a gated motor court and two master suites. According to records, Violet and George McCallister bought the house for $61,000 in 1973 when the “Brady Bunch” was still airing. While the interior never served as a set for the show, the home is like a time capsule, with decor unchanged since the early ’70s. It has a wet bar, a tall stone fireplace and a master bedroom with wall-to-wall hot pink Toile de Jouy wallpaper and matching bedspread.

Link to listing

Posted by on Aug 2, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

NSDCC Annual Sales History

When I first saw this graph, I thought it was the perfect way to sum up the changes in the marketplace since the 2000-2009 era.  Back then, people were younger, there were plenty of homes for sale, and prices were relatively affordable, so we always had a very fluid move-up and move-down market.

But to see that average tenure has doubled between 2009 and 2017 is striking.

Have the number of sales changed?

NSDCC Annual Sales of Detached Homes

Year
Number of Sales
Median SP
Annual % Chg in MSP
1999
3,236
$475,000
2000
3,285
$555,000
+17%
2001
2,926
$570,000
+3%
2002
3,717
$630,000
+11%
2003
3,932
$732,500
+16%
2004
3,363
$948,000
+29%
2005
3,014
$1,000,000
+5%
2006
2,626
$985,000
-2%
2007
2,479
$1,000,000
+2%
2008
2,037
$890,000
-11%
2009
2,223
$817,000
-8%
2010
2,461
$830,000
+2%
2011
2,562
$825,000
-1%
2012
3,154
$830,000
+1%
2013
3,218
$952,250
+15%
2014
2,850
$1,025,000
+8%
2015
3,079
$1,090,000
+6%
2016
3,103
$1,160,000
+6%
2017
3,084
$1,225,000
+6%
Medians
3,079
$890,000
+6%

Given the huge change in price and that more people are staying put than ever, it is shocking to see that sales have been relatively consistent in recent years.

How do you explain it?

It must mean that the demand is fueled by those who don’t have a house yet – first-timers, and those coming from out of town. It explains why they jump at buying when they see a good one – they don’t have one yet.  Those who already have a house here aren’t as impressed.

The population has grown 25% in San Diego County since 2000, and 30yr-fixed mortgage rates are about half of what they were then.  But for sales to be this strong when repeat movers are so scarce, is remarkable!

P.S. We’ve had 1,620 closings this year, with a median SP = $1,321,500.

Link to Attom article

Posted by on Jul 27, 2018 in North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 2 comments

Late-Season Rally?

Hat tip to JT who sent in this doomy article about home sales:

Southern California home sales hit the brakes in June, falling to the lowest reading for the month in four years. Sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums dropped 11.8 percent year over year, as prices shot up to a record high, according to CoreLogic. The report covers Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.

Sales fell 1.1 percent compared with May, but the average change from May to June, going back to 1988, is a 6 percent gain.

The weakness was especially apparent in sales of newly built homes, which were 47 percent below the June average. Part of that is that builders are putting up fewer homes, so there is simply less to sell.

“A portion of last month’s year-over-year sales decline reflects one less business day for deals to be recorded compared with June 2017,” noted Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst. “But affordability and inventory constraints are likely the main culprits in last month’s sales slowdown, which applied to all six of the region’s counties and across most of the major price categories.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/southern-california-home-sales-crash-a-warning-sign-to-the-nation.html

We already saw that NSDCC sales in May and June were both down 20% YoY, but this month we’re hanging tough with last year!

Year
NSDCC Closed Sales, July 1-15
Median Sales Price
Average $$/sf
2012
111
$850,000
$383/sf
2013
150
$927,500
$409/sf
2014
113
$950,000
$439/sf
2015
156
$1,025,000
$459/sf
2016
139
$1,140,000
$523/sf
2017
120
$1,250,000
$507/sf
2018
119
$1,285,000
$558/sf

There’s still time to get in before school starts!

Posted by on Jul 26, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 7 comments

NSDCC 2Q Sales

Let’s examine by zip code where the market might be slowing recently. These are the detached-home sales for the second quarter, plus the current number of pendings in each area:

Area
Zip Code
Sales 2Q16
Sales 2Q17
Sales 2Q18
Pendings Today
Cardiff
92007
25
30
11
9
Carlsbad NW
92008
49
67
67
20
Carlsbad SE
92009
161
181
148
64
Carlsbad NE
92010
49
51
47
26
Carlsbad SW
92011
80
91
60
26
Del Mar
92014
55
45
47
8
Encinitas
92024
144
141
110
51
La Jolla
92037
113
105
104
42
RSF
92067
76
79
55
43
Solana Bch
92075
19
33
21
10
Carmel Vly
92130
173
153
166
55
All Above
All
944
976
836
354

If the numbers for 2Q18 are remarkably under the first two columns, and the number of pendings are so low that the 3Q18 doesn’t look promising either, then you can figure that the market is soft, and getting softer in that zip code (Cardiff, Carlsbad SW, & Encinitas).

Posted by on Jul 18, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The pending counts have been dropping precipitously since June 11:

NSDCC All: -15%

Under-$1,000,000: -29%

While a lower number of pendings can be due to more closings from the fat part of the selling season, it not like we’re setting any sales records either.  The NSDCC June sales are down 20%, year-over-year, just like they were in May.

Get Good Help!

Read More

Posted by on Jul 9, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Local Predictions for 2018 – Update

We’re halfway through 2018 – let’s check on the predictions.  Here is where Rob Dawg, Franklin Jones, Ash, and myself guessed what would happen this year:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2017/12/27/2018-predictions/

My thoughts in December for 2018, plus extra stats:

I guessed earlier that NSDCC detached-home sales will drop 5% in 2018 – but that would still give us around 3,000 houses sold, which is a healthy amount, given that rates and prices are both expected to be higher.  The median sales price, full of imperfections, should keep rising, and I’ll guess +5% in 2018.

Those same factors, plus a few more boomer liquidations, could also create a bull rush frenzy, with intense wrangling for decently-priced houses listed under $1,500,000.  With more inventory, we could approach 3,200 sales again (3,084 NSDCC houses sold in 2017) .

The higher-end market is challenging too, but in the opposite direction.  Today there are 374 NSDCC houses for sale listed over $2,000,000, and we sold about 50 per month in 2017.

We ended the year with 62% of the houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad being priced over $2,000,000, with a median list price of $2,495,000 overall.

We had 10% fewer listings in 2017 than in 2016, but 2% more sales!

Where are we now?

First-half NSDCC sales are down 11% year-over-year.

Median list price today is $2,295,000, which is down 9%, compared to December 27, 2017.  Of the 935 houses for sale, 55% of them are priced over $2,000,000.

The 2017 NSDCC median sales price was $1,225,000, and the median sales price has been $1,325,000 for the first half of 2018, an 8% increase.

We’ve sold 317 houses over $2,000,000 in 2018, or about 53 per month.

Although we had 10% fewer listings last year than we had in 2016, we have had 9% more listings this year than in the first half of 2017.

Nine percent more listings, but 11% fewer sales?  Expect that buyers will become increasingly picky – there are plenty of houses to go around!

Posted by on Jul 5, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 3 comments

NSDCC Sales, First Six Months

Here are the NSDCC sales stats from the first six months of each year, going back to the beginning of the 2-out-of-5-year capital-gains tax exclusion – which helped trigger the ensuing bubble. I used the April rate because it was about the middle of the Jan-Jun time period:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
April 30-Yr Mortgage Rate
1997
927
$360,000
8.14%
1998
1,535
$430,000
7.14%
1999
1,567
$455,000
6.92%
2000
1,706
$535,000
8.15%
2001
1,423
$570,000
7.08%
2002
1,905
$620,000
6.99%
2003
1,771
$690,000
5.81%
2004
1,756
$936,500
5.83%
2005
1,548
$980,000
5.86%
2006
1,373
$995,000
6.51%
2007
1,387
$1,000,000
6.18%
2008
1,016
$936,250
5.92%
2009
899
$795,000
4.81%
2010
1,232
$825,000
5.10%
2011
1,281
$845,000
4.84%
2012
1,477
$815,000
3.91%
2013
1,670
$919,950
3.45%
2014
1,430
$1,020,000
4.34%
2015
1,555
$1,120,000
3.67%
2016
1,523
$1,150,000
3.61%
2017
1,587
$1,225,000
4.05%
2018
1,402
$1,324,000
4.47%

Yes, sales are down 11% year-over-year, but note that we are selling nearly as many homes as we did when prices were in the $400,000s and $500,000s.

Back then did you guess that today’s NSDCC median sales price would be about 3x as high, at $1,324,000?  We are seeing some market adjustments today, but we’re making about 1,700 new millionaires every day in America!

Where will pricing be in another 10-20 years?

Posted by on Jul 3, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

San Diego County House Sales

Here we saw how the NSDCC sales have been down 9% this year – how have sales been county-wide?  The closed sales between January and May this year are also down 8% compared to last year, in spite of there being 20% MORE houses listed for sale than in 2017!

The cheerleaders can’t claim that lower sales are due to lack of inventory!

San Diego County Detached-Homes Sales, Jan – May:

Year
New Listings
Closed Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
14,259
10,410
$433,000
29
2014
13,779
8,875
$485,000
35
2015
14,476
9,351
$515,000
29
2016
14,352
9,284
$550,000
26
2017
13,816
9,366
$585,000
20
2018
16,581
8,602
$629,000
26

People want to believe that it takes longer to sell more expensive homes.  But the NSDCC median days-on-market is 18 days this year, where the median SP is $1,325,000.  Eight days faster in a sub-region where the median sales price is twice as much!

Posted by on Jun 15, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 11 comments