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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

Actives-to-Pendings Ratio

We’ve used the ratio of active-listings-to-pending-listings as a measure of the overall ‘health’ of the market, with a 2:1 ratio being about right.  This is how it looked earlier this year, on February 23, 2015:

ActPend

The overall Actives-to-Pendings ratio in February was 1.69 to 1.

It is the same 1.69:1 today!

Here are the current stats – areas with more pendings than actives are in bold:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cardiff
92007
16
11
31
$1,250,000
$644/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
51
29
67
$755,000
$527/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
121
93
189
$825,000
$323/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
26
54
$642,500
$320/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
39
38
77
$875,000
$364/sf
Del Mar
92014
58
23
64
$1,582,000
$740/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
68
180
$1,087,000
$458/sf
La Jolla
92037
185
44
150
$1,817,500
$790/sf
RSF
67+91
237
41
95
$2,550,000
$528/sf
Solana Bch
92075
15
11
39
$1,539,000
$682/sf
W. RB
92127
161
90
211
$855,000
$326/sf
E. RB
92128
62
85
200
$615,000
$326/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
54
59
151
$673,500
$318/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
116
80
154
$1,168,750
$400/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
51
56
119
$778,500
$333/sf
All Above
All
1,273
754
1,781
$887,500
$472/sf

Those with smaller sample sizes can vary wildly, yet most of these look fairly consistent.  As usual, Carmel Valley is really rocking – the 80 pendings have an average list price of $1,265,778!  Encinitas deserves recognition too for having 180 solds already this year with a median sales price of $1,087,000!

Posted by on May 26, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Effect of Rates on Prices

We saw yesterday that the number of sales in the first four months of 2015 was only exceeded by those in 2013 – which was the only other time mortgage rates were in the mid-3s.

Let’s compare the mortgage-rate history of those two years:

2013 vs 2015

In 2015, the spring kick got a early boost as rates dropped close to the enticing 3.5% range.  But now rates are on the upswing.

This graph from the latimes.com shows how prices jumped substantially in the first half of 2013, but stalled as soon as rates began rising:

price trend so cal

The lower rates haven’t boosted prices as much this year – of course, we started at a higher point. Rising rates now should cause at least the same effect that they did in the second half of 2013 – flatsville.

rates apr19

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05192015_freddie_mac_outlook.asp

Posted by on May 20, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

NSDCC Sales History

Last week we saw the recent NSDCC sales history – how does it compare to previous years?

Here are the sales stats from the first four months of each year, going back to the beginning of the 2-out-of-5-year capital-gains tax exclusion – which helped trigger the ensuing bubble:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
April 30-Yr Mortgage Rate
1997
815
$350,000
8.14%
1998
889
$425,000
7.14%
1999
927
$449,900
6.92%
2000
1,043
$535,000
8.15%
2001
867
$540,000
7.08%
2002
1,176
$604,250
6.99%
2003
1,050
$675,000
5.81%
2004
1,060
$906,000
5.83%
2005
958
$970,000
5.86%
2006
847
$970,000
6.51%
2007
848
$975,000
6.18%
2008
587
$950,000
5.92%
2009
509
$801,000
4.81%
2010
726
$825,532
5.10%
2011
787
$844,617
4.84%
2012
849
$795,000
3.91%
2013
975
$880,000
3.45%
2014
839
$1,025,000
4.34%
2015
904
$1,139,258
3.67%

In spite of all the excuses – low supply, high prices, tough credit, etc. – this year’s sales count is the second highest of the last ten years.

Want to know the direction of the market? Watch the sales count – it reflects the changing combination of low supply, prices, tough credit, and mortgage rates. We have it good here!

Click for more local history: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2005/dec/25/housing-boomed-in-north-county/

Posted by on May 19, 2015 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 14 comments

NSDCC 2015 Sales, First Third

Sales this year have been brisk around North San Diego County’s Coastal region.  In spite of higher pricing, sales in the time period from January 1st to April 30th are 7% higher than last year!

Here’s how the first four months of this year compared to previous years:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
% chg YoY
2012
849
$795,000
2013
975
$880,000
+11%
2014
839
$1,025,000
+16%
2015
899
$1,143,516
+12%

We saw HERE that the April median sales price was lower than the 4-month Median SP above, and the same thing happened last year. The early spring was hotter & higher, and now we’re settling in for an interesting summer.

Posted by on May 14, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC April Sales

rates higher

The NSDCC sales count for April exceeded last year’s number, and prices were slightly higher too.  But the rate of price change has slowed considerably, and if rates bump significantly higher, we should see the market stall out.

NSDCC Sales for April

Year
# of Sales
Avg DOM
Median SP
Avg $/sf
% chg
2012
272
82
$807,500
$365/sf
2013
303
42
$955,000
$420/sf
+15.1%
2014
258
50
$1,052,500
$456/sf
+8.6%
2015
268
49
$1,112,500
$473/sf
+3.7%

In the short-term, there is virtually no chance of prices coming down, because sellers won’t believe it.  Their motivation is already suspect, and when confronted with the choice of lowering their price or waiting longer, virtually all NSDCC sellers will opt for the latter.  It will only be after months and months of trying that they might consider that price is the problem.

This guy doesn’t think the Fed will raise rates in September, and he has been very accurate with his recent predictions. If rates stay around 4% or lower, we should see more soft landing/shambling along, with occasional bidding wars to keep everyone’s interest.

Posted by on May 5, 2015 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

The Inventory Watch should be where we’ll see any indicators of market trouble.  But today’s inventory is 6% less than a year ago, with only the $800,000 – $1,400,000 category higher (244 vs 240 listings).

A growing inventory would mean sales are slowing, but we’re selling more houses this year than last year.  In the first four months of 2014, we sold 838 NSDCC houses, and we’ve already closed 824 this year with four days to go plus late-reporters!

The 2015 average cost-per-sf is higher too: $432/sf vs. $415/sf last year.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 27, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

San Diego Selling Faster

Hat tip to W.C. for sending in this article:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/15/real_estate/housing-markets-fastest-sales/index.html?iid=HP_River

An excerpt:

The report tracked home sales listed on Trulia in the 100 biggest metro areas in the U.S. on Feb. 5 and were still available on April 5. In addition to the 8 cities in California, Seattle and Salt Lake City, Utah, also made the top 10 list.

Farther south in the Golden State, homes in San Diego are also selling at a rapid pace with 33% of homes listed in February still available 60 days later, down from 44% the year prior.

This means buyers, especially first-timers, need to go into their house hunt prepared, advised McLaughlin.

“Not only is it more difficult to buy where homes are moving fastest, the homes first-timers would buy are moving faster compared to middle and higher-priced homes. It’s a double whammy.”

San Diego had the biggest YoY change of the Top 10 cities:

fast san diego

Posted by on Apr 16, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 11 comments

Inventory Watch

If you get the feeling that the 2015 market has been a lot like 2014, it’s because it has been, statistically.  Using the NSDCC data gathered below, here are the new actives and new pendings from the first 15 weeks of each year, and the number of house sales closed in the first quarter:

Year
New Actives
New Pendings
1Q Solds
1Q Avg $/sf
2014
1,282
900
581
$502/sf
2015
1,263
903
614
$509/sf

Are we at a pause before climbing higher?  Plateau City?  Or are we at the crest of the roller-coaster??

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 13, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

NSDCC 1st Qtr. Stats

The continued strength in sales and pricing is remarkable. We sold 360 houses between Carlsbad and La Jolla for more than $1,000,000 in the first quarter!

Year
Number of Sales
Median SP
Avg Cost Per SF
Avg. DOM
2012
577
$793,000
$362/sf
99
2013
672
$850,000
$386/sf
61
2014
581
$1,000,000
$503/sf
56
2015
613
$1,162,500
$509/sf
58

Since 2012, the median sales price has risen 47%, and the average $/sf has gone up 41%. Thank goodness for low mortgage rates!

mortgage rates april 2015

Posted by on Apr 10, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments