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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

SoCal November Sales

Nov sales

Lots of poking around, but no mention of sellers asking too much:

http://dqnewspressreleases.blogspot.com/2014/12/november-southland-home-sales-press.html

“Southern California home sales are closing on a low note in 2014,” said Andrew LePage, data analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick. “Inventory still lags demand in many markets and traditional buyers haven’t filled the void left by the investors who’ve pulled out. Among would-be buyers, affordability and mortgage availability remain as hurdles, as do concerns about job security and the direction of the housing market.

But there are reasons to expect more housing demand ahead. According to recent data from the federal government, job and income growth has improved. Many people who became renters after a foreclosure or short sale over the past seven years will want to buy again. And potential home buyers sitting on the fence might be tempted to jump off if they see evidence that mortgage rates will spike from today’s exceptionally low levels.”

Posted by on Dec 15, 2014 in Sales and Price Check | 5 comments

NSDCC November Sales

pres

We saw HERE how the new president of the N.A.R. has three goals for his term; winning the disintermediation battle, realtor safety, and having 100% of realtors get involved with the association.

But in another interview, he also mentioned that he wanted to “help further distinguish the difference in the minds of consumers between a REALTOR and a non-member real estate agent, and to help improve the understanding of that important distinction by the general public.”

The difference is the Code of Ethics.

But how many non-member real estate agents are there?  I could only think of one guy who is a renegade independent broker, but he doesn’t do much business.  Have you seen any non-member agents?

The $400 we pay each year to belong to the club does give us free access to the C.A.R. online forms – and those who are non-members have to pay $1,000 per year to access the same. So it makes sense to stay in the club.

But I checked – there are 5,600 people paying dues to the North San Diego County Association of Realtors, and of those, 1,100 are non-members.  But the vast majority have to be appraisers and assistants who don’t need access to the online forms.

I don’t know why the NAR president has a concern about non-member agents.  He may want to consider helping members be more productive, which wasn’t on his goals’ list.  There are over 10,000 agents in the three realtor associations in SD County, but there were only 2,121 sales in November of all types of residential properties.

Here are the November sales of detached homes from Carlsbad to La Jolla:

November
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Avg DOM
2011
176
$772,500
$372/sf
97
2012
241
$885,000
$415/sf
80
2013
187
$1,030,000
$474/sf
58
2014
163
$1,029,900
$497/sf
56

The frenzy broke out at the end of 2012, and by the end of 2013 it had subsided. The average cost-per-sf went up 5% since last November, but check the median prices – a balanced set of sales!

Posted by on Dec 8, 2014 in Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Higher-End Surge

surge

Hat tip to daytrip for sending in this latimes.com article about the surge of high-end home sales across the Southland:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-luxury-home-sales-20141124-story.html#page=1

An excerpt:

Luxury home sales in Southern California are hitting levels not seen in decades. The number of homes bought for $2 million or more in recent months is the highest on record. Sales worth $10 million or more are on pace this year to double their number from the heights of the housing bubble.

“It’s pretty mind-blowing, to be honest,” said Cindy Ambuehl, an agent with the Partners Trust in Brentwood. “The luxury market has been completely on fire.”

Low interest rates, a strong stock market and waves of cash sloshing in from overseas are boosting demand for high-dollar homes. A record 1,436 homes worth $2 million or more were sold in the six-county Southland in the second quarter, according to CoreLogic DataQuick.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

How are we doing locally?  It’s worth noting that the supply of higher-end homes has been surging too (assuming the ‘refreshing’ of listings has been fairly constant over the years).

Below you can see how the market has been shifting upward:

NSDCC Detached Homes Listed/Sold By Price Range

Year
0-$1M
$1M-$2M
$2M-$3M
$3M+
2011 New Listings/Solds
3,028/1,663
1,446/674
447/154
410/93
2012 New Listings/Solds
2,362/2,039
1,313/819
404/194
415/133
2013 New Listings/Solds
2,140/1,750
1,713/1,074
560/259
514/168
2014 New Listings/Solds
1,791/1,263
1,723/938
539/218
538/161

These are 12-month stats so you need to extrapolate to compare 2014 accurately (add about 10% to these current counts). You can see how the Under-$1M folks have been left shaking their head – they have about a third fewer homes to consider since 2011!

Posted by on Nov 24, 2014 in North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

“Successful U-Turn”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-usa-economy-housing-idUSKCN0J41P620141120

U.S. home resales jumped to their highest level in more than a year in October and outpaced the sales level a year ago for the first time in 2014, further evidence the housing market is on a recovery path.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Thursday said existing home sales rose 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 5.26 million units, the highest rate since September of last year. Sales rose 2.5 percent compared to a year ago, the first time since October 2013 that nesales have risen above the prior-year levels.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales falling to a 5.16 million-unit pace, from an upwardly revised rate of 5.18 million units in September.

“This is the first time in the year where we have seen a year over year annual gain, which means that existing home sales have made that successful U-turn,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, told reporters.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I thought things were going pretty good nationally, and if we could get looser credit then everything would be fine.  Now I guess a ’successful U-turn’ means….good or bad? :lol:

Yunnie deserves a break; he has done a much better job than David Lereah.  In July, Yun did say that he expected a slight uptick in sales during the second half of the year:

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/07/pending-home-sales-slip-in-june

Locally this year we haven’t beat any of last year’s monthly sales counts.  Here are the NSDCC Detached-Home Sales for 2013 and 2014:

graph (52)

Last year was so hot due to low rates and prices that it’s doubtful we will see those numbers anytime soon.  But we have been close enough!

Posted by on Nov 20, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

SD October Sales and Prices

Oct 2014

From the DQ:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA141112.aspx

An excerpt:

“It was another sub-par month for Southern California home sales. We’ve yet to see traditional buyers fill the void left by the drop-off in investor and cash buyers, which began in spring last year,” said Andrew LePage, data analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick. “Of course, there are multiple reasons for this year’s lackluster sales. New-home transactions are still running at about half their normal level. The resale market is hampered by constrained inventory in many areas, in part because some people who want to put their homes up for sale still haven’t regained enough equity to purchase their next home. Then there are the would-be buyers who continue to struggle with affordability and mortgage availability, if not uncertainty over their employment or the direction of the housing market.”

They are great at reporting the MoM, YoY, and regurgitating the same tired old excuses.  If sellers would just lower their asking prices it would fix everything.

It appears that sellers are just waiting for the market to catch up to their list prices. But this is why inventory starts to build – sold prices aren’t going up.

The median-sales-price trend can be skewed by the hotter low-end doing all the heavy lifting.  While the low-end is still hot, it looks like the higher-end must be soft or declining – the Median SP has been flat for 7-8 months straight (which includes decisions made at the end of the last selling season).

From the DQ reports:

Month
2013 Median SP
2014 Median SP
Jan
$350,000
$405,000
Feb
$359,000
$410,000
Mar
$380,000
$427,000
Apr
$400,000
$435,000
May
$406,500
$440,000
Jun
$416,500
$450,000
Jul
$417,500
$445,000
Aug
$415,000
$448,500
Sep
$422,000
$445,000
Oct
$412,750
$440,000

Rates are 4% and under, buyers are sticking around, and there are 7,680 houses and condos for sale in SD County.  Price will fix the rest!

Posted by on Nov 13, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

NSDCC October Sales

There will still be a few stragglers, but the October numbers are shaping up as expected – fewer sales but healthy pricing.  The frenzy was zooming by the end of 2012, but it was settling down by October 2013 after rates popped that June.

Here are the last 11 NSDCC Octobers, for comparison:

October
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Avg DOM
# over $3M
2003
306
$778,500
$369/sf
57
11
2004
229
$895,000
$453/sf
63
12
2005
218
$1,065,000
$468/sf
60
16
2006
186
$888,762
$424/sf
83
11
2007
145
$920,000
$483/sf
75
13
2008
195
$800,000
$406/sf
74
12
2009
211
$805,000
$407/sf
86
7
2010
188
$854,750
$364/sf
79
6
2011
186
$835,000
$379/sf
85
11
2012
297
$825,000
$388/sf
77
10
2013
266
$957,500
$495/sf
57
16
2014
235
$982,655
$468/sf
60
12

Look how similar this year is to 2005. After two years of spectacular run-up in both cases, we’re at the identical $/sf.

With rates bobbing around 4%, our softer landing should continue.

rates-2

Posted by on Nov 5, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 8 comments

Hang In There Buyers!

We seen the local NSDCC detached-home inventory hovering lately, instead of dropping off as expected.  Two other signs, declining sales and SP:LP, make it look like buyers are gaining  more control as we head into Halloween week.

The number of sales between August 15 and October 15 are down 18% from last year (and 25% from 2012), though there will be some late reporters:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg SP
SP:LP Ratio
Avg DOM
2011
444
$822,500
$1,052,013
91%
86
2012
618
$838,500
$1,116,907
95%
76
2013
559
$994,300
$1,324,491
96%
52
2014
461
$1,050,000
$1,418,498
94%
50

Buyers should stay engaged, if for no other reason than the low rates.  The dwindling new listings coming on the market should be ‘motivated’, and if you don’t mind weeding through the long-time listings there should be some deals in there too.

Jumbo rates

Posted by on Oct 22, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

September Sales

Sept 2014 sales

Here’s an excerpt from the Dataquick sales release for September:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA141013.aspx

Irvine, CA—Southern California home sales hit a five-year high for a September, rising slightly above a year earlier for the first time in 12 months amid gains for mid- to high-end deals. The median sale price fell below an 80-month high reached in August and for the first time in more than two years none of the Southland counties posted a double-digit year-over-year price gain, CoreLogic DataQuick reported.

A total of 19,348 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 2.9 percent from 18,796 sales in August, and up 1.2 percent from 19,112 sales in September 2013, according to CoreLogic DataQuick data.

On average, sales have fallen 9.4 percent between August and September since 1988, when CoreLogic DataQuick statistics begin. Last month marked the first time sales have risen on a year-over-year basis since September last year, when sales rose 7.0 percent from September 2012.

September home sales have ranged from a low of 12,455 in 2007 to a high of 37,771 in 2003. Last month’s sales were 18.3 percent below the September average of 23,695 sales.

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the six-county region last month was $413,000, down 1.7 percent from $420,000 in August and up 8.1 percent from $382,000 in September 2013. The August 2014 median was the highest for any month since December 2007, when it was $425,000.

Southland sales were 2.9% higher in September than August, when on average there is a 9.4% decline?  Considering how high prices are, that’s good.  We didn’t do as well locally.  Here are the stats for NSDCC detached-home sales:

Mo./Year
# of Sales
Avg. $/sf
Avg. DOM
Sept. ’13
263
$470/sf
52
Aug. ’14
245
$500/sf
45
Sept ’14
231
$478/sf
49

Sales were down 12% year-over-year, and 6% lower than August.

Posted by on Oct 15, 2014 in North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

Sharper Pricing?

How is the fourth quarter rolling out?

Are sellers feeling pressured to lower their price?  Are buyers stepping up?

Here are the pricing trends in our local areas:

SE Carlsbad – List and sales pricing converging should cause an active 4th quarter – unless buyers decide to wait-and-see where this is going:

Oct 2014 92009

Encinitas – An example of what can happen when pricing converges here, where buyers backed off starting in April.  But sellers are proud, and heck, it’s only money:

Oct 2014 92024

Rancho Santa Fe – This is how they roll in the Ranch – put a price on it, and wait for someone to come along.  It results in a meandering trend:

Oct 2014 92067

Carmel Valley – Stunning to see average list pricing in decline since April – but it’s been working.  It keeps the sales momentum rolling:

Oct 2014 92130

La Jolla – List pricing took off in the beginning of 2013, but buyers cooled off for a full year before coming back around in 2014, price-wise:

Oct 2014 92037

Posted by on Oct 7, 2014 in Carmel Valley, Encinitas, Jim's Take on the Market, La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Is There a Need For Experts?

If News Corp helps to clear out all the buyer-agents, and the listing agents end up being paid less, to do less - how will that affect the market?  It will probably burn a little hotter in the good times, and colder in the slow times.

The people who have the most to lose are the big-corporate real estate franchisors who count on their share of commission splits. Expect a long battle!

Buyers – at least the ones making the market – haven’t cared too much about getting good help, they just want to buy a house.  The internet tools have given them enough information that they feel empowered, and heck, it’s just money. Who writes the deal, and the commission amount doesn’t concern them much.

Real estate will keep selling at some price!

The low-inventory environment should continue.  Home auctions will be the next gimmick to tempt people to sell their house, but unless you need to sell, who cares?  Without easy financing, the demand side should stay tempered too, so expect low sales counts from now on.

It’s amazing we’ve done as well as we have – here’s the comparison:

NSDCC Summer Sales (June-August)

Year
# of Sales
2002
988
2003
1,226
2004
1,020
2005
866
Total
4,100
Year
# of Sales
2011
722
2012
895
2013
954
2014
835
Total
3,406

With mortgage qualifying at the polar opposites, it is remarkable that sales are only 17% fewer than the last peak. Did better agent-advice contribute to the strength of sales? Maybe, but not as much as other contributors, like big-cash, internet tools, newcomers, and Qualcomm/bio-tech. Agents aren’t known for being strong advisors that might sway a market; instead, most are order-takers.

Commissions might get softer as (more) desperation overcomes the realtors who are on their way out, but we should lock into a mid-range of sales and pricing that will be fairly steady – at least until rates rise, or the next crisis!

graph (51)

Posted by on Oct 3, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 15 comments