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Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

San Diego County House Sales

Here we saw how the NSDCC sales have been down 9% this year – how have sales been county-wide?  The closed sales between January and May this year are also down 8% compared to last year, in spite of there being 20% MORE houses listed for sale than in 2017!

The cheerleaders can’t claim that lower sales are due to lack of inventory!

San Diego County Detached-Homes Sales, Jan – May:

Year
New Listings
Closed Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
14,259
10,410
$433,000
29
2014
13,779
8,875
$485,000
35
2015
14,476
9,351
$515,000
29
2016
14,352
9,284
$550,000
26
2017
13,816
9,366
$585,000
20
2018
16,581
8,602
$629,000
26

People want to believe that it takes longer to sell more expensive homes.  But the NSDCC median days-on-market is 18 days this year, where the median SP is $1,325,000.  Eight days faster in a sub-region where the median sales price is twice as much!

Posted by on Jun 15, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 11 comments

NSDCC May Sales & Pricing

This article shows that 88% of the home sales in San Francisco this year have sold for list price or higher – wow!

In SF, 79% sold over list price

We aren’t quite that hot, but there was some good action last month:

NSDCC Houses Sold Over List Price: 20%

NSDCC Houses Sold At LP: 13%

In May, 33% of the NSDCC detached-home sales close for list price or higher!  For those on range pricing, I used the high-end of the range, and I didn’t include any that were on the ‘auctions’.  Of the 100 houses that sold over $1,500,000, there were eleven that closed above their list price.

But sales are struggling:

Year
# of May Sales
Avg. Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
362
$416/sf
$943,500
16
2014
269
$465/sf
$950,000
20
2015
297
$492/sf
$1,125,000
22
2016
334
$498/sf
$1,216,250
24
2017
343
$517/sf
$1,220,000
16
2018
269
$593/sf
$1,325,000
18

Prices were way up, but there were 22% fewer sales last month, YoY!

Here are the NSDCC closed sales for January through May:

2013: 1,337

2014: 1,108

2015: 1,213

2016: 1,212

2017: 1,226

2018: 1,113

Year-to-date sales are 9% fewer than last year (through May).

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Jun 12, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 4 comments

NSDCC May Sales, Preliminary

Now that the market is simmering down, it is more critical than ever that sellers hire the right listing agent.  A failed coming-soon campaign can burn up your initial urgency, and cause showings to die down quickly once the listing finally hits the MLS.

How soft is it?

The pricing statistics are still rising, but sales are stalling.  The NSDCC April sales were down 3% YoY, and May is looking worse so far:

Year
# of May Sales
Avg. Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
362
$416/sf
$943,500
16
2014
269
$465/sf
$950,000
20
2015
297
$492/sf
$1,125,000
22
2016
334
$498/sf
$1,216,250
24
2017
343
$517/sf
$1,220,000
16
2018
264
$594/sf
$1,325,000
19

Even if I add ten percent more sales to last month’s total for late-reporters, we’re going to be -15% YoY…..during the selling season.

Here are the NSDCC closed sales for January through May:

2013: 1,337

2014: 1,108

2015: 1,213

2016: 1,212

2017: 1,226

2018: 1,106

(today’s count is -10% year-over-year, and it would still be -8% if we add the estimated number of late-reporters to May’s count)

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Jun 4, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Thanks to Daytrip who sent in this article which has a few different opinions on market conditions, and demonstrates the numerous variables in the housing equation.  This excerpt from a New York appraiser by trade:

The outcome is that high-end listings languish for longer periods of time—until sellers come down in price. But an uptick in transactions as sellers offer discounts to buyers does not necessarily indicate that a market is improving. Rather, this can be seen as evidence that buyers have been patient and sellers are now pricing their homes more realistically.

Here is a reminder of the differences based on price – the number of months’ worth of inventory, which used to be considered normal when around six:

Price Range
NSDCC Actives
2018 Avg Sales per Mo.
# of Months’ of Inventory
$0-$1M
80
62
1.3 months
$1M-$1.5M
189
77
2.5 months
$1.5M-$2M
149
39
3.8 months
$2M+
488
47
10.4 months

The 1.3 months’ worth of inventory on the lower end looks red-hot, and the 10.4 months on the high-end looks sluggish – and all in the same area!

Price will fix anything!

Read More

Posted by on Jun 4, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Month's Supply, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC April Sales

Compared to previous years, the detached-home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad are holding up remarkably well.  With the significant increase in pricing, we can’t expect sales to equal previous Aprils, so 260 is pretty strong:

Year
# of Sales
Avg. Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
303
$420/sf
$955,000
16
2014
258
$456/sf
$1,052,500
26
2015
282
$475/sf
$1,077,500
20
2016
305
$518/sf
$1,120,000
20
2017
277
$536/sf
$1,282,131
15
2018
260
$571/sf
$1,295,000
15

I’m sticking with my prediction of NSDCC 2018 sales dropping 10% YoY.

Here are the sales totals for January through April:

2013: 975

2014: 839

2015: 916

2016: 878

2017: 883

2018: 832 (-6%)

As long as we can keep generating millionaire buyers organically, or import them from a far (mostly retirees), we’ll be fine.

Posted by on May 8, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Housing-Bubble Chances

An article based on research from a mortgage insurance company, who has a stake in the game (unlike economists).  The image above shows virtually no risk of prices falling in Southern California over the next two years.

H/T daytrip:

Housing bubble coming? According to one mortgage insurance company’s latest reports, there’s only a slim chance Southern California home prices will fall in the next two years.

Arch MI gauged the economic foundations of home values in 100 major metropolitan areas to determine local housing markets with “minimal” risk. Locally, Arch MI found solid performance among regional businesses and limited development of new homes as factors that should keep home prices firm.

Orange County was the riskiest market in the region — if having a 4 percent risk of a price decline in the coming two years is what you consider dicey. That compares with the county’s 28-year historical average of 25 percent chance of falling home values.

Arch MI noted Orange County’s home prices were up 12 percent in the two years ended in 2017 — only the 52nd highest among the 100 large metros studied. Per-capita homebuilding of 18 single-family homes per 10,000 residents — ranked No. 63 out of 100. Business output rose 5.2 percent last year, the 40th fastest growth nationally.

Los Angeles County had 2 percent risk of decline as 2018 started vs. a 1980-2018 average of 27 percent, according to Arch MI.

That score came as L.A. home prices surged 15.9 percent in two years — No. 32 biggest gain; per-capita homebuilding of 6 houses per 10,000 population was fourth slowest nationally; and business output rose 4.9 percent last year, No. 51 fastest.

In Riverside and San Bernardino counties, Arch MI found risk of home-price declines at 2 percent vs. a 28-year historical average of 25 percent.

Inland Empire home prices are up 15.6 percent in two years — No. 33 highest — as per-capita homebuilding of 26 per 10,000 — ranked No. 52 — while business output rose 5.5 percent last year, 29th fastest.

Arch MI doesn’t find much risk out of the region either: The nationwide risk of decline was 5 percent even after home prices rose 12.6 percent in two years. Yes, that was up from 2 percent a year ago.

“Housing markets in most cities are exceptionally strong due to a shortage of homes for sale,” Arch MI wrote. “Construction has lagged the growth in households and employment for nearly a decade. Even recent interest rate increases and higher taxes on some upper-income earners didn’t slow the market, as many had feared.”

Riskiest big markets, by Arch MI’s math? Texas and Florida!

No. 1 diciest was Houston (22 percent chance of price declines within two years) followed by San Antonio (20.3 percent); Tampa-St. Petersburg (19.2 percent); Cape Coral-Fort Myers (17.8 percent); Austin (17 percent); Fort Lauderdale (16.9 percent); and Miami (16.4 percent).

“Housing markets aren’t likely to cool until the economy slows, either from substantially higher interest rates or an unexpected economic shock,” Arch MI wrote. “Short of a war or stock market crash, housing markets could continue to surprise on the upside over the next few years.”

Link to Article

Posted by on Apr 30, 2018 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

NSDCC Spring Kick 2018

Though the number of pendings has been lower recently, the closed sales are about the same as last year. Buyers are probably more reluctant to cancel a sale once in escrow?

NSDCC Action Between Jan 1st and April 10th

Year
# of Closed Sales
# of New Listings
CS/NL
% of Sales Over $1M
2013
765
1,481
52%
40%
2014
678
1,408
48%
51%
2015
730
1,445
51%
58%
2016
639
1,550
41%
58%
2017
648
1,368
47%
61%
2018
653
1,371
48%
73%

Almost three quarters of the sales are over $1,000,000 now!

Posted by on Apr 25, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

San Diego Housing Affordability

Reader Rob asked,

Can you do an article on the housing affordability index related to NSDCC?  Just wondering what percentage of people need x amount of dollars with 20% down to afford a median priced home?

Let’s include data on the median price of detached-home active listings, and those sold in the last 90 days. I used an interest rate of 4.50%, 20% down payment (25% down payment on $2,395,000 price), and qualifying ratio of 35%:

Category
# in Category
Median Price
Cash to Close
Annual Income
SDCo Actives
3,912
$824,823
$170,000
$115,000
SDCo Solds
4,744
$624,700
$130,000
$87,000
NSDCC Actives
822
$2,395,000
$605,000
$312,000
NSDCC Solds
608
$1,327,500
$270,000
$185,000

The fixer market feels the impact. When it takes both spouses holding down good jobs to qualify, they don’t have the time or patience to fix up a house – they want and need a house in good shape. Maybe this is where Zillow and others can provide more renovated homes to fit the needs of today’s buyers.

Posted by on Apr 17, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Mortgage Qualifying, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 8 comments

Robertson Wrap Up

It was almost four years to the day that the drone visited Robertson Ranch – before the development began.  Here is a post from 4/17/2014 when I was still piloting the drone, and hit my peak elevation:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/04/17/drone-at-robertson-ranch/

They only have six houses left to sell, plus the models, which means they’ve sold nearly 300 houses at an average of about $1,100,000 (guessing) in the last 2-3 years – or about 100 million-dollar-houses per year:

I’ve sold multiple houses across the street from the R-Ranch for less than $200,000. Now that they can get 13x times that money on what was a strawberry field five years ago is mind-boggling.

Posted by on Apr 14, 2018 in Bubbleinfo TV, Builders, Carlsbad, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments