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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

NSDCC Sales in June

june

Here’s a comparison of the last four Junes to those at the previous peak.  Last time, the number of sales started declining, indicating trouble ahead.

In 2015 it appears that pricing has tapered, but sales are still looking strong – late reporters could make last month’s sales total the best of the foursome:

Year
# of Sales
Avg $/sf
Median SP
Avg DOM
Avg SF
2004
376
$455/sf
$975,000
37
2,966sf
2005
304
$483/sf
$1,049,500
53
3,004sf
2006
264
$492/sf
$1,026,600
64
2,968sf
2007
267
$501/sf
$1,050,000
57
3,098sf
Year
# of Sales
Avg $/sf
Median SP
Avg DOM
Avg SF
2012
339
$368/sf
$867,500
76
3,158sf
2013
333
$453/sf
$1,025,000
46
3,008sf
2014
322
$481/sf
$1,077,850
44
3,036sf
2015
324
$484/sf
$1,097,500
38
2,963sf

Sales are just the indicator – higher mortgage rates will be one of the main causes of market slowing when it happens. You hear it on the street already – buyers are preparing for a slower market, and they want to price it in now.

Posted by on Jul 7, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Second Half of 2015

We have entered the second half of 2015 with a full head of steam – in the first half of 2015, NSDCC detached-home sales were up 5% YoY!

Is there a natural cooling off in the second half?  Not really.

Second-half sales have been influenced by mortgage rates recently.  We had a resurgence in the second half of 2012 when both rates AND prices were declining – sales were 14% higher than in the first half.  Once we bounced back over 4% in mid-2013, sales cooled down until rates dipped back into the threes in January of this year.

Here are the half-year stats, starting with a reflection back to 2007, the previous high point of the median sales price:

Half-Year
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Median Days on Market
1H2007
1,387
$1,000,000
47
2H2007
1,092
$1,000,762
51
1H2012
1,477
$815,000
51
2H2012
1,677
$845,000
44
1H2013
1,670
$919,950
21
2H2013
1,548
$980,000
29
1H2014
1,431
$1,020,000
24
2H2014
1,419
$1,025,000
31
1H2015
1,507
$1,125,000
23

Lately, rates AND prices have been trending upward, which suggests market slowing, plus the inventory is picked over!

Currently, two-thirds of the NSDCC houses for sale have been on the market for more than 30 days, and unless those sellers get aggressive about pricing, sales are likely to taper off as rates and prices stay flat or rise for the rest of 2015.

Posted by on Jul 2, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

The Haves

I heard an interesting comment the other day on broker caravan.

The listing agent said, “Maybe we’re all undervalued?”, as he sat on his $6,000,000 listing with nobody else in attendance.

If you judge it by the weather, he could have a point.  If we have the best weather in the U.S.A., then we should have the highest-priced real estate.

It probably means that rich folks from around the world who are retiring will be giving strong consideration to the San Diego area.  Retirees are going to be drawn to where the grandkids live first, and if the ‘kids are in the general Southern California vicinity, then San Diego might be considered for retirement.

Either that is happening, and/or our employment base is stronger than ever.

Two days ago, we saw that the NSDCC sales this year between January 1st and June 15th were 7% higher than last year.

NSDCC is the coastal area between La Jolla and Carlsbad that has a population of around 300,000 people.  Carlsbad makes up about a third of the population and sales in the area, and realtors and buyers alike consider it a quality lower-priced alternative to the affluent Encinitas-La Jolla stretch.

Here is the breakdown of those January 1st-June 15th sales:

Category by Area
2014
2015
% chg
Carlsbad # of New Listings
812
868
+7%
Carlsbad # of Closed Sales
462
493
+7%
Carlsbad Median SP
$769,500
$800,000
+4%
La Jolla-Enc # of New Listings
1,660
1,631
-2%
La Jolla-Enc # of Closed Sales
797
859
+8%
La Jolla-Enc Median SP
$1,300,000
$1,375,000
+6%

The number of sales in Carlsbad corresponded with a similar increase in listings.  But look at the higher end market – the year-over-year sales were 8% higher, in spite of 2% fewer listings!  The median price increased nicely too.

This is an affluent area, and real estate is booming – could it be undervalued?

Posted by on Jun 26, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

Local Trends

SD pricing June 2015

Have you seen how some of the list prices have gone ballistic lately?

You can see above how the red ‘Sold’ price-per-sf trend line has been increasing moderately, but the 90-day average list pricing has taken off over the last few months (in blue).

What is causing the recent enthusiasm among sellers?

The inventory is still low – lower than last year.  But there are more sales happening in 2015, in spite of fewer choices and higher prices!

These are San Diego charts, but the same in true in NSDCC, where we had 1,259 sales between January 1st and June 15, 2014, and this year there were 1,349 sales – which is a 7% increase in NSDCC sales year-over-year.

In 2013 we had 1,497 sales.

Here are the active listings and sales counts below:

SD Inventory 2015

Though this chart doesn’t show all of 2013, it is incredible to see that today’s inventory is back around those levels when we were in the full frenzy!

It’s a slightly different mix – we’ve had fewer NSDCC listings this year than in 2013.  But the frenzy fever looks very similar on paper!

How long can it last?  Have you seen an occasional neighborhood that has for-sale signs piling up?  Coastal tract houses in the $1M to $2M range are particular susceptible.  There are 367 houses for sale in that range currently, which isn’t exactly panic time, because there were 127 that closed in the last 30 days!

But those were the plums – the best available. What happens to the rest?

I know it seems like summer just started, and we’ll probably keep getting enough happy news to keep the party rolling (like Case-Shiller next Tuesday).

But those are reflecting ancient history now.  By the time we get to August, the inventory will be so picked over that we should hit stall speed!

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Jun 24, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

May Sales & Pricing

There will be more sales reported over the next few days, which should push last month’s total above those in May, 2014 – even though pricing is substantially higher!

NSDCC May Sales and Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Avg SF
Avg $/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
2012
289
2,999sf
$380/sf
$821,000
36 days
2013
362
2,999sf
$416/sf
$943,500
16 days
2014
270
2,816sf
$464/sf
$950,000
19 days
2015
263
3,030sf
$501/sf
$1,151,000
20 days

The average size of houses hasn’t changed much, and the speed at which they are flying off the shelf is impressive too. Of the 263 sales last month, 25% of them found their buyer during the first 7 days on the market.

Posted by on Jun 2, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 5 comments

Actives-to-Pendings Ratio

We’ve used the ratio of active-listings-to-pending-listings as a measure of the overall ‘health’ of the market, with a 2:1 ratio being about right.  This is how it looked earlier this year, on February 23, 2015:

ActPend

The overall Actives-to-Pendings ratio in February was 1.69 to 1.

It is the same 1.69:1 today!

Here are the current stats – areas with more pendings than actives are in bold:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cardiff
92007
16
11
31
$1,250,000
$644/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
51
29
67
$755,000
$527/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
121
93
189
$825,000
$323/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
26
54
$642,500
$320/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
39
38
77
$875,000
$364/sf
Del Mar
92014
58
23
64
$1,582,000
$740/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
68
180
$1,087,000
$458/sf
La Jolla
92037
185
44
150
$1,817,500
$790/sf
RSF
67+91
237
41
95
$2,550,000
$528/sf
Solana Bch
92075
15
11
39
$1,539,000
$682/sf
W. RB
92127
161
90
211
$855,000
$326/sf
E. RB
92128
62
85
200
$615,000
$326/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
54
59
151
$673,500
$318/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
116
80
154
$1,168,750
$400/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
51
56
119
$778,500
$333/sf
All Above
All
1,273
754
1,781
$887,500
$472/sf

Those with smaller sample sizes can vary wildly, yet most of these look fairly consistent.  As usual, Carmel Valley is really rocking – the 80 pendings have an average list price of $1,265,778!  Encinitas deserves recognition too for having 180 solds already this year with a median sales price of $1,087,000!

Posted by on May 26, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Effect of Rates on Prices

We saw yesterday that the number of sales in the first four months of 2015 was only exceeded by those in 2013 – which was the only other time mortgage rates were in the mid-3s.

Let’s compare the mortgage-rate history of those two years:

2013 vs 2015

In 2015, the spring kick got a early boost as rates dropped close to the enticing 3.5% range.  But now rates are on the upswing.

This graph from the latimes.com shows how prices jumped substantially in the first half of 2013, but stalled as soon as rates began rising:

price trend so cal

The lower rates haven’t boosted prices as much this year – of course, we started at a higher point. Rising rates now should cause at least the same effect that they did in the second half of 2013 – flatsville.

rates apr19

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05192015_freddie_mac_outlook.asp

Posted by on May 20, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

NSDCC Sales History

Last week we saw the recent NSDCC sales history – how does it compare to previous years?

Here are the sales stats from the first four months of each year, going back to the beginning of the 2-out-of-5-year capital-gains tax exclusion – which helped trigger the ensuing bubble:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
April 30-Yr Mortgage Rate
1997
815
$350,000
8.14%
1998
889
$425,000
7.14%
1999
927
$449,900
6.92%
2000
1,043
$535,000
8.15%
2001
867
$540,000
7.08%
2002
1,176
$604,250
6.99%
2003
1,050
$675,000
5.81%
2004
1,060
$906,000
5.83%
2005
958
$970,000
5.86%
2006
847
$970,000
6.51%
2007
848
$975,000
6.18%
2008
587
$950,000
5.92%
2009
509
$801,000
4.81%
2010
726
$825,532
5.10%
2011
787
$844,617
4.84%
2012
849
$795,000
3.91%
2013
975
$880,000
3.45%
2014
839
$1,025,000
4.34%
2015
904
$1,139,258
3.67%

In spite of all the excuses – low supply, high prices, tough credit, etc. – this year’s sales count is the second highest of the last ten years.

Want to know the direction of the market? Watch the sales count – it reflects the changing combination of low supply, prices, tough credit, and mortgage rates. We have it good here!

Click for more local history: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2005/dec/25/housing-boomed-in-north-county/

Posted by on May 19, 2015 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 14 comments

NSDCC 2015 Sales, First Third

Sales this year have been brisk around North San Diego County’s Coastal region.  In spite of higher pricing, sales in the time period from January 1st to April 30th are 7% higher than last year!

Here’s how the first four months of this year compared to previous years:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
% chg YoY
2012
849
$795,000
2013
975
$880,000
+11%
2014
839
$1,025,000
+16%
2015
899
$1,143,516
+12%

We saw HERE that the April median sales price was lower than the 4-month Median SP above, and the same thing happened last year. The early spring was hotter & higher, and now we’re settling in for an interesting summer.

Posted by on May 14, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments