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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

Existing Home Sales, July, 2016

nar

Our N.A.R. head cheerleader does his best at fabricating a believable story behind the 3.2% drop in existing-home sales:

Lawrence Yun, N.A.R. chief economist, says existing sales fell off track in July, after steadily climbing the last four months.  “Severely restrained inventory and the tightening grip it’s putting on affordability, is the primary culprit for the considerable sales slump throughout much of the country last month”, he said. Realtors are reporting diminished buyer traffic because of the scarce number of affordable homes on the market, and the lack of supply is stifling the efforts of many prospective buyers attempting to purchase while mortgage rates hover at historical lows.

He needs to follow me on twitter.  I’ve already pointed out twice that there were 9% fewer days in July than in June – and sales only dropped 3.2%?  Sounds like a positive to me.

But instead he feeds his typical bather to America, and leaves it up to the consumers what to make of it.

He should also point out that 2015 was a hot market, with summer sales exceeding those during the super-frenzy of 2013.  Yet sales over the last four months have been close or surpassed those in 2015!  Even with the two fewer days, look how July, 2016 compares to previous years – it was better than 2013!

Yunnie needs say, “Remember, real estate is local”, to end all of his speeches.  This national data and his blunder of an explanation shouldn’t have any impact on local market conditions.  But they could make a difference if casual readers just grab a headline and decide to pack it in for the year.  Thanks Yunnie – you’re supposed to be on our side!

The local scoop:

Detached-Homes
July, 2013
July, 2014
July, 2015
June, 2016
July, 2016
NSDCC # of Sales
297
271
313
298
262
NSDCC Median SP
$930,000
$1,018,000
$1,025,000
$1,204,500
$1,125,000
SD Co # of Sales
2,401
1,992
2,437
2,360
2,151
SD Co Median SP
$480,000
$513,750
$550,000
$565,000
$562,000

NSDCC detached-home sales in July dropped 12% compared to June, with 9% fewer business days. With higher prices, sales should be declining – and for them to drop a net 3% sounds good to me. House sales in San Diego County dropped 9% month-over-month – let’s call it even.

P.S. Regarding his comment that realtors are reporting diminished traffic, it’s because you are sitting on over-priced listings. Lower the price and get in the game, or go get another listing!

Added later – looks great:

months supply

Save

Posted by on Aug 24, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim | 3 comments

NSDCC Sales – July

happy news

In the recent past, we have had a real drop-off from June to July in NSDCC sales.  But this year the decline was only 5%, and once the late-reporters are done, it should be close to even:

Year
# of June Sales
# of July Sales
July Median SP
2012
339
258
$850,000
2013
333
297
$930,000
2014
322
271
$1,018,000
2015
336
313
$1,025,000
2016
296
275
$1,125,000

Monthly pricing statistics will bounce around, so watching the trend in sales is the name of the game. A series of significant declines would indicate trouble, and so far there hasn’t been any!

Posted by on Aug 4, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC June Sales and Pricing

bump

When comparing the 2016 activity to previous years, we stack up pretty good – when we combine months.

Here are the links to May/June and Jan-Jun numbers.

But when we look at June only, it looks like we’ve hit a bump in the road:

June Sales and Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Avg Cost-per-SF
Median Sales Price
2012
339
$368/sf
$867,500
2013
333
$453/sf
$1,025,000
2014
322
$481/sf
$1,077,850
2015
336
$484/sf
$1,116,000
May16
326
$498/sf
$1,208,750
2016
286
$512/sf
$1,200,000

There will be a few more late-reporters, but not enough to change the fact that June sales declined by double-digit amounts – both MoM and YoY.

The low rates should keep us going through summer though!

Posted by on Jul 10, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Preliminary 1H16 Numbers

fireworks

Today is the last day of the first half of 2016!

Here is how this year’s NSDCC market compares to previous years:

First Half
New Listings
Houses Sold
Median Sales Price
2012
2,545
1,477
$815,000
2013
2,790
1,670
$919,950
2014
2,712
1,430
$1,020,000
2015
2,769
1,530
$1,127,500
2016
2,879
1,465
$1,154,000

The final counts for 2016 should end up close to 2,900 listings, and 1,500 sales (numbers above were updated on 7/10/16).

It doesn’t really matter if there are more listings scattered around not selling – they only matter if they dump on price to get ‘er done!

Save

Posted by on Jun 30, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Existing Home Sales, May 2016

existing home sales

The national cheerleaders get excited about every nugget of data, and are happy to jump to conclusions.  Yunnie is finally tip-toeing around the downsizing trend that we see everywhere around here, but he can’t assume that those sellers are buying too:

“The May gain over April signals that the real estate market has maintained strong momentum all spring,” says realtor.com chief economist Jonathan Smoke. “We are now in this year’s peak home buying months, and this pace of sales should produce the gains we have been forecasting that will make 2016 the best year of home sales in a decade.

The biggest challenge to prospective buyers right now is tight supply, which we have seen for 45 consecutive months. In these conditions, home values have strong support, but potential buyers will continue to face challenges finding a home for sale that meets their needs. That is why we’re seeing the age of inventory drop dramatically while prices have gone up 5 percent over the last year and are now at record nominal levels.”

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says existing sales continue to hum along, rising in May for the third consecutive month. “This spring’s sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” he says. “With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now.”

Adds Yun, “Barring further deceleration in job growth that could ultimately temper demand from these repeat buyers, sales have the potential to mostly maintain their current pace through the summer.”

The local NSDCC sales in May built on the momentum from April, and the 2016 three-month total looks very similar to last year (865 vs. 859):

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
299
320
$1,216,250
$500/sf
$419/sf

Save

Save

Posted by on Jun 23, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

How Long Have Sellers Owned 3

The first posting in this series was on December 12 – let’s check in occasionally to see how long recent sellers owned their home before they sold it.

Here is the third review of the NSDCC detached-home sales – these are sales that have closed so far in June, 2016:

Year Purchased
1st Review (12/12/15)
2nd Review (3/19/16)
3rd Review (6/18/16)
1900-1999
34 (27%)
28 (25%)
31 (22%)
2000 – 2003
18 (14%)
19 (17%)
25 (17%)
2004 – 2008
29 (23%)
33 (29%)
34 (24%)
2009 – 2011
19 (15%)
12 (11%)
19 (13%)
2012 – 2016
22 (18%)
21 (18%)
27 (19%)
New Home
3 (2%)
1 (1%)
8 (5%)

Those long-time owners continue to lead the pack, with 49% of sellers having owned their home more than 12 years before selling it this month.

Buyers should be prepared for fixers, and sellers should do what they can to improve their home to sell because nearly half of the sales probably look dated.

Interesting that those who could make the quickest big profits, those who bought in 2009-2001, were the least likely to sell.

More stats:

Other Categories
1st Review (12/12/15)
2nd Review (3/19/16)
3rd Review (6/18/16)
Number of Sales
125
114
144
Avg. $$/sf
$505/sf
$552/sf
$550/sf
Median SP
$1,080,000
$1,129,000
$1,291,500
Avg DOM
60
38
42
Sold in First 10 Days
24%
32%
35%
Lost $$
11
3
7
0 DOM
5
8
7

Pricing is still strong, and buyers are stepping up!

Posted by on Jun 18, 2016 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC May Sales

Rates 2016

Low mortgage rates are keeping the party going!

As mortgage rates dipped back into the mid-3s in February, buyers responded. The closed sales in April and May were healthy, and supported by sellers who are being reasonable about price – the cost-per-sf is about the same as last May.

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
300
316
$1,216,250
$497/sf
$415/sf

Flat to slightly-rising prices are the happy compromise for everyone!

Posted by on Jun 12, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales, First Five Months

hanging on

Let’s compare the NSDCC detached-home sales closed during first five months of the year, and the percentage of million-dollar sales:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan – May

Year
$1M Sales
Total # of Sales
$1M Percentage
Median SP
2002
302
1,568
19%
$610,000
2003
316
1,411
22%
$680,000
2004
593
1,380
43%
$925,000
2005
585
1,244
47%
$969,500
2006
534
1,109
48%
$989,000
2007
549
1,120
49%
$979,950
2008
377
950
40%
$950,000
2009
230
696
33%
$796,000
2010
333
975
34%
$825,000
2011
395
1,030
38%
$847,037
2012
371
1,138
33%
$800,000
2013
562
1,337
42%
$900,000
2014
559
1,108
50%
$1,000,000
2015
687
1,194
58%
$1,130,000
2016
692
1,166
59%
$1,150,000

It’s incredible how total sales have held up in spite of the rapid rise in pricing.

Also note the similar jump in million-dollar sales between 2003-2004 and 2012-2013.  The $1M sales dropped off a little after 2004, but this time they kept going higher – almost 700 million-dollar sales in the last five months!

You can also appreciate why the lower-end is so hot – buyers must feel like they are just hanging on!

Posted by on Jun 5, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales and Pricing, May

In the first four months of this year, the market was a bit lethargic with more new listings and fewer sales than in 2015.

The trend was reversed in May, with fewer new listings but more sales, YoY!

Year
New Listings
Closed Sales
2012
425
289
2013
490
362
2014
497
269
2015
512
287
2016
477
305

All it means is that more participants were able to agree on price for a stretch.

I don’t think buyers are intimidated by the lack of inventory any more – they’ve learned to live with it, and are willing to be patient.  But they have their eye on the calendar too, so there could be a flurry of activity in June as families want to get in and get settled before school starts again.

Posted by on Jun 3, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments