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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

First Third of 2016 By Town

updown

We saw how the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad region had experienced more listings between January and April, but fewer sales for the first time since 2006:

LINK

Let’s break it down by area to see the hotspots.

New Listings and Sales Between January and April

(NL = New Listings)

Area
Zip Code
2015 NL
2016 NL
Chg
2015 Sales
2016 Sales
Chg
Cardiff
92007
43
52
+21%
26
24
-16%
Carlsbad NW
92008
105
97
-8%
53
53
0
Carlsbad SE
92009
288
267
-7%
153
128
-20%
Carlsbad NE
92010
66
62
-6%
42
50
+19%
Carlsbad SW
92011
116
143
+23%
63
78
+24%
Del Mar
92014
93
123
+32%
50
54
+8%
Encinitas
92024
240
263
+10%
152
124
-18%
La Jolla
92037
268
283
+6%
123
104
-15%
RSF
92067
199
226
+14%
69
48
-16%
Solana Bch
92075
43
50
+16%
36
30
-17%
Carmel Vly
92130
260
291
+12%
128
154
+20%
All Above
All
1,721
1,857
+8%
895
847
-5%

The areas that have had double-digit increases in new listings, and also had double-digit decreases in year-over-year sales percentages, are struggling a bit (in bold).  Cardiff and Solana Beach have such small sample sizes that their changes aren’t alarming, so it’s Encinitas and Rancho Santa Fe that stand out.

Any with a big decrease in sales are next on the list (SE Carlsbad and La Jolla).

Posted by on May 13, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC April Sales

april

It was concerning that the NSDCC sales in March had dropped off considerably year-over-year.  But we had a good bounce back in April – and when you look at the numbers this way, it’s obvious that March, 2015 was unusually frothy:

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
Difference
April Median Sales Price
2012
238
272
+34
$807,500
2013
299
303
+4
$955,000
2014
219
258
+39
$1,052,500
2015
294
278
-16
$1,090,500
2016
246
281
+35
$1,129,197

Sales are staying strong, in spite of how prices keep climbing. (???)

The lower-end is where you would think affordability would matter most, but that’s where prices are rising the fastest!

SDtiered

Posted by on May 3, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC First Third of 2016

updown

Today we are wrapping up the first third of 2016!

We complain about low inventory, but we’ve had more NSDCC houses listed in the first four months of 2016 than any year since 2011:

Year
Jan-Apr New Listings
Jan-Apr Closed Sales
NL/CS Ratio
2005
1,778
958
1.86
2006
2,232
847
2.64
2007
2,022
848
2.38
2008
1,988
587
3.39
2009
1,919
509
3.77
2010
1,919
726
2.64
2011
1,986
787
2.52
2012
1,684
849
1.93
2013
1,822
975
1.87
2014
1,746
839
2.08
2015
1,745
907
1.92
2016
1,855
814
2.28

This is the first time since 2006 that we’ve had the new listings increase, and sales decrease!

Using the NL/CS ratio, can we say that a market that is under 2.0 is a hot, and over 3.0 is scrambling-to-get-out?

Then is 2016 just a ‘normal’ market?

P.S. Statistics have quirky coincidences, and I double-check any time we have one. We had the exact same number of new listings in 2009 and 2010!

Posted by on Apr 30, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Price Forecasts Move Higher

risingprices

The hustle to move up the housing ladder is something people did when they were younger – and prices cheaper.  Those move-ups have gotten you here, and hey, it’s not so bad – especially if it means that to replace your home, it costs two or three times more than you paid! 

Expect the housing-inventory stalemate to continue, regardless of how high prices get – people have no better place to go, they don’t want to bother moving, and taxes plus expenses are outrageous.

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/04/price-realities-are-blowing-away-forecasts/

This was supposed to be a year of “moderating” prices and a “return to normalcy.”  Instead, upward price pressures have not abated, and red-faced economists are scrambling to crank up their forecasts as price trends at the outset of the buying season knock their protections into a cocked hat.

The culprit? Most forecasters predicted three years of rising prices would encourage more owners to sell, and supplies of homes for sale would catch up with demand, which is increasing as a result of the improving economy and continued low interest rates.

Posted by on Apr 25, 2016 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

New Peak Pricing

peak

Today’s prices are higher than they were in 2007 around most areas of North San Diego’s coastal region, and the median sales prices in the quaint coastal towns of Cardiff, Carlsbad, and Encinitas have blown up!

But Rancho Santa Fe – facing too much competition from surrounding areas – is the only area that is still significantly behind its MSP from 2007:

NSDCC Number of MLS Sales and Median Sales Price, 1st Quarter

Town or Area
2007 Sales
Median SP
2016 Sales
Median SP
Price Diff
Cardiff
17
$925,000
15
$1,100,000
+19%
Carlsbad NW
36
$680,000
36
$865,000
+27%
Carlsbad SE
88
$848,500
78
$880,000
+4%
Carlsbad SW
47
$861,000
56
$896,500
+4%
Del Mar
31
$1,562,500
33
$1,700,000
+9%
Encinitas
97
$830,000
83
$1,095,000
+32%
La Jolla
58
$1,700,000
62
$1,857,500
+9%
RSF
36
$2,725,000
27
$2,380,000
-13%
Solana Bch
27
$1,350,000
19
$1,335,000
-1%
Carmel Vly
114
$1,000,000
100
$1,128,500
+13%
All
575
$997,000
552
$1,122,000
+13%

Posted by on Apr 12, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 4 comments

NSDCC Higher-End Stalling?

panic

There has always been some sort of relationship between inventory and sales.

When inventory is tight, sellers have the advantage because buyers get frenzied up and just pay the price to win one.

With a smaller increase in inventory, the frenzy can soak up the supply – sales can increase too because more demand gets satisfied.

But there comes a point when a larger increase in the inventory causes the buyers to back off, and sales stall.

It is a delicate balance because buyers want more choices, but when it feels like not much is actually selling, buyers regain control of the market.  They adopt the wait-and-see approach – even with homes that appear to be well-priced.  They want someone else to go first!

Let’s examine the local data to see how we’re doing.  There isn’t a direct relationship between new listings and sales in the same time period, because many if not most of the sales were listings from the previous quarter or quarters.  But we can use the ratios to compare the velocities:

San Diego County Detached-Homes, 1st Quarter

1Q – Year
1Q New Listings
1Q Solds
1QNL/1QSolds Ratio
2014
8,544
4,556
53%
2015
8,752
4,794
55%
2016
8,607
4,626
54%

So far, so good. When we look at the whole county year-over-year, there has been a very similar relationship between new listings and sales in the first quarter.  Let’s check around the northern coast:

North San Diego County Coastal Region, 1st Quarter

1Q – Year
1Q New Listings
1Q Solds
1QNL/1QSolds Ratio
2014
1,235
581
47%
2015
1,275
629
49%
2016
1,372
549
40%

We are getting a little queasy now – there were 8% more new listings to consider, and sales dropped off 13% but we know that 2015 was a strong year so tough to keep up.

Let’s break down the NSDCC stats by price to find the trouble:

North SD County Coastal Region, 1st Quarter, UNDER $1,400,000

1Q – Year
1Q New Listings
1Q Solds
1QNL/1QSolds Ratio
2014
733
409
56%
2015
722
418
58%
2016
654
375
57%

No big problems there – the Under-$1.4M sales declined, but so did the number of new listings so the ratio was about the same as the previous two years.

But that means the higher-end market isn’t enjoying the same benefits:

North SD County Coastal Region, 1st Quarter, OVER $1,400,000

1Q – Year
1Q New Listings
1Q Solds
1QNL/1QSolds Ratio
2014
513
178
35%
2015
568
216
38%
2016
734
178
24%

Yikes, the number of new listings over $1,400,000 zoomed 30% higher than last year, and sales dropped 18% – an example of how too many choices are causing buyers to pause (the identical 178 sales in 2014 and 2016 was a fluke).

The higher-end market could be stalling just because of the additional choices.  If there were only 5% or 10% more listings (like last year), it probably wouldn’t be that noticeable – but the +30% is leaving a mark.

The extra listings may not even be ‘over-priced’ on paper (or by zestimate), but with so many active listings stacking up, the buyer’s confidence in the wait-and-see program is rewarded – and also causing their ‘picky-ness’ to increase rapidly.

There are 186 pendings listed over $1,400,000, so the market isn’t dead.

But last year at this time we had 564 active listings priced over $1,400,000, and today there are 695 listings – a 23% increase.

Having 30% more new listings overall this year but only 23% more active listings today means we were able to soak up some of the extra supply.  But the rest are lingering.

How should these sellers proceed?  Be sharper on price, and if you’re not getting offers in the first 2-3 weeks on the market, then do bigger price reductions faster.

You don’t want to look up in July and wonder what happened.  You know now.

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Apr 9, 2016 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

Million-Dollar Sales

San Diego ranked #5 in America for its 19% growth of $1,000,000+ sales last year, compared to 2014.  However, the number of million-dollar sales and the median sales price both dropped in 1Q16, compared to 1Q15:

1Q – Year
Number of $1,000,000+ Sales in SD
Median Sales Price
2014
464
$1,454,500
2015
583
$1,425,000
2016
546
$1,383,450

It’s interesting that the median SP is around our $1,400,000 sweet spot!

Posted by on Apr 7, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

It’s Go Time

springkick

We’ve all heard the rule about listing your home for sale in the spring.

But when are buyers actually buying?

Are there any times when the demand could wane, and sellers should avoid?

There are three events that could cause a lull in the demand:

  1.  Easter/Spring Break
  2.  Tax Day/Season
  3.  Graduation Season

If all we had to worry about was Easter Day, then we might lose a few hours – there were plenty of open houses on Saturday.  But families with school-age kids get 9-10 days off, which is tempting for them to spend on vacation.

Should sellers wait?

Then you have the tax-day slowdown, which is usually the 1-2 days that people waste having to arm-wrestle with their income taxes.

Keep waiting?

Graduation season is more than it used to be, with every kid from pre-school through college getting the pomp and circumstance fit for a king.

Good grief – it will be mid-summer by the time every distraction clears!

Let’s examine the most important fact – when are buyers buying?

These intervals below were based on the hunch that the combined spring-break/tax-day season (3/16-4/15) might show some weakness:

NSDCC Detached-Home Closed Sales – Dates They Were Marked Pending:

Year
2/16-3/15
3/16-4/15
4/16-5/15
5/16-6/15
7/16-8/15
2012
264
297
309
307
231
2013
293
362
340
326
248
2014
231
271
303
261
264
2015
264
318
308
311
289
Avg
263
312
315
301
258

How about that!

The spring-break/tax-day season was the hottest of the year in 2015, and on average about as good of a time to sell as any!

It’s Go Time!

Posted by on Mar 28, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

Active/Pendings in March

KR logo

I like to compare the counts of active and pending listings to help determine the overall ‘health’ of the marketplace, and a 2:1 ratio always seemed to be ‘normal’, roughly.  Le’s compare the comparisons!

These are the counts from February 1, 2016:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Seven weeks later, and well into the selling season, there has been notable improvement!  Those in bold have had a surge of new pendings, and overall there are 57% more pendings today than seven weeks ago:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
19
11
1.73
$2,449,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
36
26
1.38
$1,285,000
Carlsbad SE
92009
90
70
1.29
$1,189,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
7
23
0.30
$740,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
36
0.94
$1,,062,450
Del Mar
92014
69
13
5.31
$2,580,000
Encinitas
92024
92
50
1.84
$1,811,500
La Jolla
92037
187
53
3.53
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
232
32
7.25
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
8
3.00
$1,962,500
Carmel Vly
92130
110
77
1.43
$1,490,000
All Above
All
900
399
2.26
$2,150,000

If it weren’t for Rancho Santa Fe being a stick in the mud (median LP hasn’t budged either), we could say the entire NSDCC market is on fire.

Posted by on Mar 23, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments