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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

Record SD Median Sales Price

NSDCC stats at bottom.

LINK

The median price of houses and condominiums that changed hands in May in the county zoomed into record territory, with the price of a single-family home crossing the $600,000 mark for the first time, the San Diego Association of Realtors announced Friday.

The median price of the 2,200 or so houses that sold in May in San Diego County was $612,500, up 2.9 percent from April and 8 percent from May 2016. The number of sold listings was up 8 percent from the prior month, but down 6.1 percent from the previous year as inventory continues to be tight, according to SDAR data.

Inventory — the amount of properties on the market — is down roughly 25 percent from the same period last year, according to SDAR.

“While the rise in prices is astounding considering where we were a decade ago, there is less worry about a boom-and-bust scenario with our stronger lending standards,” said SDAR President Bob Kevane. “I am optimistic that our improving economy will make for a strong summer home sale season.”

With the lack of supply causing prices to skyrocket, affordability has fallen. According to the organization’s data, the median household income is only 57 percent of what’s required to purchase a single-family home, down 11 percentage points over the past two years.

The most expensive residential property sold in the county last month was Los Robles Ranch in Santa Ysabel, which went for $8.5 million. The 640- acre, eight-parcel luxury retreat features a 3,550-square-foot, four-bedroom, three-bath main house built in 2006.

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In North San Diego County’s coastal region (La Jolla to Carlsbad), we had the same number of sales year-over-year in May, and only a 0.5% increase in the median SP (The 2016 stats were corrected).

But to show how bumpy the stats can be month to month as the selling season heats up, here’s what we have so far this year:

NSDCC 2017 Monthly Data

Month
Number of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $$/sf
January
174
$1,180,000
$519/sf
February
171
$1,265,000
$509/sf
March
257
$1,080,000
$477/sf
April
277
$1,282,131
$536/sf
May
334
$1,222,500
$517/sf

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Posted by on Jun 10, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

NSDCC May Sales

The Pending Home-Sales Index dipped 3.3% last week, which helped to fuel more doomer talk (examples here and here).

People assume that if the stats don’t rise every year, then we have a problem.  But doesn’t the number of homes for sale affect the outcome?  If there are 9% fewer new listings nationally this year, then a 3.3% drop in the new pendings doesn’t sound bad.

But local is what matters – how did we do in May?

NSDCC May Sales and Pricing

Year
# of May Sales
Median SP
Avg $$/sf
Avg DOM
# of Listings 1/1-5/31
2013
362
$943,500
$416/sf
42
2,312
2014
269
$950,000
$465/sf
41
2,243
2015
297
$1,125,000
$492/sf
47
2,333
2016
334
$1,216,250
$498/sf
41
2,477
2017
334
$1,222,500
$517/sf
34
2,265

We had a year-over-year 9% drop in new listings over the first five months of 2017, yet May sales were 10% higher (and late-reporters will add more).

They are selling fast too. The median DOM (days-on-market) was 16 days, which was the same as 2013 when we were in full-tilt boogie mode. Almost half the houses sold are finding their buyer within the first two weeks!

Updated 6/10/17

Posted by on Jun 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Home Sales, Y-T-D

N.A.R. home-sales forecasts are a moving target. In October they guessed 6 million sales for 2017, and in December they said 5.5 million:

LINK

Single-family existing home sales are set to see their best year since 2006, driven by robust job gains and improving household confidence, according to the forecast from the National Association of Realtors.

While existing home sales are increasing, low levels of supply and rising affordability concerns are creating headwinds for sales and threatening the low homeownership rate.

The first quarter came in with the best sales pace for existing homes in a decade; NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects that pace to continue, finishing off 2017 with 5.62 million sales, the best pace since 2006. This would represent an increase of 3.5% from 2016.

And home sales aren’t the only thing predicted to rise. NAR also forecasts an increase of 5% in existing home prices in 2017.

However, starter home shortage continue to plague the housing market and discourage would-be first time homebuyers.

“We have been under the 50-year average of single-family housing starts for 10 years now,” Yun said. “Limited lots, labor shortages, tight construction lending and higher lumber costs are impeding the building industry’s ability to produce more single-family homes.”

“There’s little doubt first-time buyer participation would improve and the homeownership rate would rise if there was simply more inventory,” he said.

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The N.A.R. only talks about the annualized sales pace, which is murky. Let’s look at how the actual year-to-date sales compare with previous years:

Detached-home Sales Between Jan 1st and May 15th:

Year
# of SD County Sales
Median SP
# of NSDCC Sales
Median SP
2013
8,980
$425,000
1,136
$891,225
2014
7,699
$485,000
957
$1,009,020
2015
8,304
$510,000
1,066
$1,100,000
2016
7,965
$546,000
984
$1,140,000
2017
7,967
$580,000
1,000
$1,215,000

The 2017 NSDCC sales are tracking 1.6% ahead of last year, and if mortgage rates can hold around the current 4%, we should carry on. It feels like we have a maturing market though, and a general malaise could drift into the equation towards the end of the summer season.

Posted by on May 23, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

N.A.R. Sales Propaganda

http://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/home-prices-rising/

An excerpt:

“Prices are increasing faster than we expected them to because of the continual shortage of new homes coming onto the market,” says Senior Economist Joseph Kirchner of realtor.com. “People that had been holding back on buying a home … now have good, steady jobs and are less worried about losing their jobs and hence are going into the housing market.”

If the shortage of homes continues, prices could rise 7% to 8% Y-O-Y in 2017, he says. Ouch. That means buyers on a budget “will be able to afford one less bedroom [or need to] accept a house with a longer commute,” Kirchner says.

The first quarter of 2017 marked the strongest quarterly sales pace in a decade, according to the report.

“Prospective buyers poured into the market,” NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “Those able to successfully buy most likely had to outbid others—especially for those in the starter-home market.”

Prices went up in 85% of those metros, which are highly populated areas made up of one or more city cores surrounded by suburban and rural communities. That’s down slightly from 89% in the previous quarter, but 30 metros did see double-digit price hikes in the first three months of 2017.

“Several metro areas with the healthiest job gains in recent years continue to see a large upswing in buyer demand but lack the commensurate ramp up in new home construction,” Yun said. “This is why many of these areas— in particular several parts of the South and West—are seeing unhealthy price appreciation that far exceeds incomes.”

Four of the five most expensive markets were in California. Silicon Valley’s San Jose took the lead, as the median existing single-family home came with a $1,070,000 price tag. The metro was followed by San Francisco, at $1,815,000; Anaheim, CA, at $750,000; Honolulu, at $746,00; and San Diego, at $564,000 (up 5% Y-O-Y, but lower than each of the last three quarters).

Overall, the West was also the most expensive housing region. The median price for an existing single-family home was $342,500 in the first quarter of the year. That’s up 8.4% year over year.

Posted by on May 15, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

NSDCC April Sales

An update on last month’s sales and pricing:

April
Number of Sales
Avg $$/SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
Median DOM
2013
303
$420/sf
$955,000
42
16
2014
258
$456/sf
$1,052,500
50
26
2015
278
$473/sf
$1,090,000
47
20
2016
299
$521/sf
$1,129,197
40
19
2017
265
$541/sf
$1,335,035
42
15

The sales count was 225 when we checked on Friday, and we’ll have some more stragglers over the next couple of weeks. There was one less business day last month verses April 2016, so we weren’t too far off.

There were 24 houses that sold for more than $3,000,000, and two that closed over $10,000,000!

Posted by on May 3, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Pending-Sales Index Down in SD

Something price could fix…..

California pending home sales downshift for third straight month in March

LOS ANGELES – Even with a strong performance in March closed escrow sales, a shortage of available homes and robust price growth that’s eating away at affordability stifled pending home sales for the third straight month, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Following seasonal factors, REALTORS® responding to C.A.R.’s March Market Pulse Survey saw elevated market activity, with an increase in floor calls, presentations, and open house traffic for the third month in a row.

Pending home sales data:

• Based on signed contracts, statewide pending home sales decreased for the third straight month in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* declining 4.5 percent from 112.5 in March 2016 to 107.4 in March 2017. On a monthly basis, California pending home sales dipped 2.9 percent from the February index of 110.6.

• March’s pending sales decline is the greatest so far this year, portending sales activity in the usually busy spring homebuying season will be dampened, primarily due to demand outstripping the supply of active listings, which was 12 percent lower than in March a year ago.

• At the regional level, Southern California remains the bright spot in the state, which led both in closed escrow sales in March and the smallest decrease (-1.3 percent) in March non-seasonally adjusted pending sales. In fact, Los Angeles and Riverside counties were the only two areas of Southern California that saw an increase in pending sales from a year ago, at 1.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. Pending sales fell 3.6 percent from March 2016 in Orange County, 5.6 percent in San Diego County, and 8.0 percent in San Bernardino County.

http://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2017releases/mar2017pendingsales

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Posted by on Apr 29, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check | 21 comments

NSDCC April Sales – Preliminary

Today is the last business day of April – how are sales shaping up?

April
Number of Sales
Avg $$/SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
Median DOM
2013
303
$420/sf
$955,000
42
16
2014
258
$456/sf
$1,052,500
50
26
2015
278
$473/sf
$1,090,000
47
20
2016
299
$521/sf
$1,129,197
40
19
2017
225
$539/sf
$1,282,131
42
14

We should have another 10% added to this month’s sales count by the time we are done, but it will be well under last year’s count, which should get the talking heads excited. There was one less business day this month verses April 2016, and last April was a stellar month for sales.

This month’s increase in pricing was strong, and the median days-on-market was hotter than ever.  But if you are like me, you are seeing most of the new listings today being priced with extra mustard, and I think we’re going to see sales struggle from here on out.

Posted by on Apr 28, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

NSDCC Spring Kick Report

The overall environment can be sized up by comparing how many houses have sold, compared to the number of new listings hitting the market.

A surge of new listings can set buyers back on their heels. We could make that case about what happened last spring, when we had 100 more NSDCC listings hit early, and sales dropped a bit from the previous year:

NSDCC Action Between Jan 1 and April 10th

Year
# of Closed Sales
# of New Listings
CS/NL
% of Sales Over $1M
2013
765
1,481
52%
40%
2014
678
1,408
48%
51%
2015
730
1,445
51%
58%
2016
639
1,550
41%
58%
2017
648
1,368
47%
61%

The 41% from last year looks like the anomaly now though, and this year looks stronger than ever, with sales maintaining last year’s pace in spite of almost 200 fewer listings! All while the lower end has been disappearing – this year we have 61% of our sales over $1,000,000!

Posted by on Apr 13, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales, March 2017

We hear about the ‘tight inventory’ across the country, but the perception is affected by how fast homes are selling – there aren’t many houses just sitting around not selling, which gives the appearance of ‘tight’.

Let’s measure it correctly by comparing the total number of houses listed for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

NSDCC Total 1st Quarter Listings

1st Qtr
Total # of New Listings
Median List Price
2013
1,288
$1,175,000
2014
1,235
$1,289,950
2015
1,276
$1,302,950
2016
1,394
$1,490,000
2017
1,223
$1,495,000

The number of NSDCC houses listed for sale hasn’t dropped significantly from previous 1Qs – the 1,223 is only 4% below the average of the last five years. Does that mean the number of sales should be comparable to previous years?

Here is the first look at last month’s NSDCC detached-home sales:

NSDCC March Sales

March
Total # of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $$/sf
Avg. DOM
# Sold <800K
2013
299
$840,000
$404/sf
49
129
2014
219
$1,040,000
$518/sf
51
62
2015
294
$1,137,500
$502/sf
46
73
2016
245
$1,145,000
$524/sf
42
57
2017
229
$1,110,000
$481/sf
42
41

Sales last month were 11% below the March average of the last five years.  Double-digit changes should get our attention!  But it is very understandable, once we look deeper.

The lower-end is where the discrepancy is – the number of houses sold under $800,000 last month was 44% below the 5-year average.

The lower-end market is disappearing.

We’re already a higher-end market, and going higher.  As a result, sales could taper off as we find an equilibrium.

It’s not like there aren’t houses for sale. They’re just expensive!

Today we have 822 on the market between La Jolla and Carlsbad – with a median LP of $2,295,000!  Only 97 of those (12%) are listed under $1,000,000!

One other note. The $524/sf average last March included this house that closed for a whopping $5,869/sf.  Take that out, and the March, 2016 average is $502/sf, the same as the previous year.

Posted by on Apr 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments