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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

San Diego Tiered Pricing

It looks like pricing might be getting more squishy on the higher-end homes.

We’ve seen everything above $672,984 but below $1,000,000 be hot and rising, yet the high-tier Case-Shiller Index has been flat for months – which means the ultra-high-end stuff is really sloshy.

What can sellers do?

  1. Make your house easier to show, especially on the weekends.
  2. Keep doing home improvements while on the market.
  3. Respond to offers promptly.
  4. Counter-offer in big chunks (more than 1%) to keep buyers enthusiastic.

For buyers, the thrill of making an offer dies off quickly. Try to make a deal within 2 counters or three days, whichever comes first!

Posted by on Feb 22, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

San Diego County Detached-Homes

Tom asked for some thoughts on the county-wide market!  Though we had a few more listings in 2016 than in recent years, the closed sales were the highest of the last three years – and within 1,000 of the frenzied 2013 total.

San Diego County Detached-Home Listings and Sales

Year
# of Listings
# of Sales
Median LP
Median SP
SP:LP
2013
33,077
24,910
$459,990
$455,000
98.9%
2014
33,752
22,101
$499,999
$495,000
99.0%
2015
33,040
23,733
$539,000
$529,000
98.1%
2016
34,015
23,943
$569,000
$560,000
98.4%

The SP:LP ratio is down slightly, but for the median sales price to be within 1.6% of the median list price on 23,943 sales is pretty remarkable – especially when the median sales price has risen 23% since 2013!

Save

Posted by on Feb 7, 2017 in Frenzy, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Tom Tarrant | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales

There have been press releases this week about December sales being down, and our cheerleader was happy to blame the higher rates and low inventory:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market’s best year since the Great Recession ended on a healthy but somewhat softer note. “Solid job creation throughout 2016 and exceptionally low mortgage rates translated into a good year for the housing market,” he said. “However, higher mortgage rates and home prices combined with record low inventory levels stunted sales in much of the country in December.”

Added Yun, “While a lack of listings and fast rising home prices was a headwind all year, the surge in rates since early November ultimately caught some prospective buyers off guard and dimmed their appetite or ability to buy a home as 2016 came to an end.”

He forgot about the TRID hangover from November, 2016 that pushed additional sales into December.  Our sales count last month was 235, which was just under the 253 sales in December, 2015.  I’ll take it!

But the quarterly totals would be a better gauge – these were my guesses from July, 2016 for the second half of the year:

NSDCC Quarterly sales numbers (with estimates):

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
850?
4Q
832
664
666
662
660?
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
2,975?

Here’s how it turned out:

NSDCC Quarterly sales numbers:

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
795
4Q
832
664
666
662
739
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
3,019

The 739 sales in 4Q16 exceeded my guess by 12%, and the momentum from 2016 should continue to drive sales in 2017.  We’ve already had 112 NSDCC closed sales this month, and have a week of closings left to catch last January’s 168 sales.  Full steam ahead!

Posted by on Jan 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Trump and Local Real Estate

The inauguration is almost here – Trump will be your president on Friday!

How will he affect our local real estate market?

His detractors are aghast over his tweets, but Trump keeps them coming.  In spite of their bombastic nature, I think we are already numb to his tweets, or at least getting used to them being part of the landscape.

At this point, I don’t think the Trump Effect will have much, if any, impact on us – positive or negative.  If rates stay under 5% (today’s 30Y is 4.12%), buyers should shrug it off and keep buying.

I also think sellers and agents are getting smarter about price, which will help tremendously.  As you saw in the previous post, they might screw it up a bit once they hit the market, but eventually buyers and sellers should both be happy with a modest appreciation rate of 2% to 4% this year.

The #1 thing that should keep our market stable is the buyers’ focus on getting the right house for the long-term.  Before the 2007 downturn, buyers thought they could always sell for a gain, and, as a result, any house would work for the short-term.  But after our so-called ‘crisis’, we recognize prices can go down – but it only hurts if you sell.

Sales and prices may bounce around, but with the focus on the long-term as a foundation, our market should keep cooking.

Posted by on Jan 17, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

Measuring the Start of 2017

Every prognosticator has released their cautious predictions for the year, but how will we know what’s happening in the meantime?

  1. How will buyers know if it’s safe to go back in the water?
  2. How will sellers know if they can pack another 5% on to their price?

There are two ways we can get a sense of the initial enthusiasm, and by the end of January it should become more clear on which way the market is breaking.  Last year, our start was already slightly slower than the previous two years, but close enough that there wasn’t any panic.  Buyers kept buying, and for the most part, they paid what the sellers wanted.

NSDCC Monthly Sales

Year
December
January
February
Totals
2013-14
211
182
180
573
2014-15
250
165
170
585
2015-16
253
168
144
565
2016-17
215

If we close 150 sales in each of the next two months, and hit 515 for our 3-month total, I think we can say our market is surviving. But we can dig deeper to see what will have caused those results.

January New Listings and New Pendings

Year
January New Listings
January New Pendings
2014
307
176
2015
273
163
2016
320
140

Yes, there will be several old listings being ‘re-freshed’ this year – in the first week of last year, about 70% of the new listings had been re-inputted.  But it is like that every year.

Keep your eye on the number of new pendings. If we can get close to last year’s 140, we should be fine, but the wait-and-see trend has been building.

The new listings will play a role – if there is a surge of fresh meat, it could cause rate-sensitive buyers to jump in now if they see something decent. But rates should moderate, keeping buyers picky.  If there aren’t many current owners willing to sell, then we could have fewer pendings but healthy conditions. Let’s compare the two as we go!

Posted by on Jan 3, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

NSDCC November Sales

2016-12-04-13-59-06-2

Here’s the update on last month.  There were two fewer business days in 2014, and one less business day in 2013 and 2015 (same # in 2012).

With both sales AND pricing being this strong, the momentum should carry over to 2017…..and I think we’ll get off to a fast start too.  There has to be some motivated sellers scooting closer to the exits, and buyers who are anxious to lock in a rate and price before they get any worse.

We should be at full speed by March!

NSDCC November Sales

Year
# of Sales
Sales Per B-Day
Median SP
Average $/sf
2012
241
12.68
$885,000
$415/sf
2013
187
10.39
$1,030,000
$474/sf
2014
172
10.12
$1,007,450
$491/sf
2015
193
10.72
$1,187,500
$520/sf
2016
227
11.95
$1,265,000
$544/sf

Posted by on Dec 6, 2016 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

NSDCC 11-Month Report

Mortgage rates calmed down yesterday, retreating back to 4.125%, but with all the hysteria about Trump, things sure seem unsettled.

How will we know if our local market is getting into trouble?

Watch three things:

  1.  Inventory/sales relationship
  2.  High-end market
  3.  Actives/pendings ratio

Apply these to your local micro-market, because results will vary by neighborhood.  I started this blog in September, 2005, when it was becoming obvious on the street that change was afoot.

We had a great lesson in 2006 – the inventory took off, and sales plunged:

La Jolla-to-Carlsbad, Jan – Nov

Year
New Listings
Closed Sales
Median Sales Price
2003
5,002
3,609
$725,000
2004
4,955
3,121
$945,000
2005
5,290
2,808
$1,000,000
2006
5,829
2,388
$985,000
2007
5,198
2,339
$1,000,000
2008
5,030
1,905
$900,000
2009
4,811
1,984
$810,000
2010
5,066
2,256
$830,000
2011
4,994
2,342
$828,414
2012
4,246
2,860
$829,200
2013
4,653
3,007
$950,000
2014
4,541
2,599
$1,022,000
2015
4,715
2,771
$1,098,000
2016
4,807
2,761
$1,170,000

The 2016 inventory has increased, but it’s more in line with the average now – which, excluding 2006, is 4,869 per year. Sales aren’t plunging either, so we’re in good shape, at least for now.

How about the high-end market?

Sales are down slightly in La Jolla this year, compared to 2015 (320 vs. 336), but the Ranch is hopping! There have been 13% more sales in the 92067 this year, compared to 2015, and sales in August-through-November are up 46% year-over-year!

graph

I’ll come back to the Actives/Pendings ratio, but at least we have guideposts that look relatively health today!

Posted by on Dec 3, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC November Sales, Preliminary

nsdcc

There was one more business day last month than there was in November, 2015, but it’s impressive to just keep up with previous years when we are at higher price points.

NSDCC November Sales

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Average $/sf
2012
241
$885,000
$415/sf
2013
187
$1,030,000
$474/sf
2014
172
$1,007,450
$491/sf
2015
193
$1,187,500
$520/sf
2016
211
$1,252,840
$546/sf

The big difference is on the lower end.

In November, 2012, there were 37 regular houses sold under $600,000, and last month there were only four – and they were of the patio-home variety.

Save

Posted by on Dec 1, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

CA Realtor Survey – October

mult

  • The share of homes selling above asking price edged up from 27 percent a year ago to 28 percent in October. Conversely, the share of properties selling below asking price dropped to 44 percent from 47 percent in October 2015. The remaining 28 percent sold at asking price, up from 25 percent in October 2015.
  • For homes that sold above asking price, the premium paid over asking price rose to 9.1 percent, up from 7.7 percent in September and 8.9 percent a year ago.
  • The 44 percent of homes that sold below asking price sold for an average of 8.9 percent below asking price in October, the lowest since May 2015. The premium paid in both September and a year ago was 12 percent.
  • Nearly six in 10 properties for sale (59 percent) received multiple offers in October, down from 63 percent in September and 64 percent from October 2015. October marked the seventh straight month of declining multiple offers.
  • The share of properties receiving three or more offers fell to 30 percent, the lowest level since the beginning of this year. Thirty-five percent of properties received three or more offers in September, and 36 percent of properties received three or more offers a year ago.
  • Compared to a year ago, there was an increase in the share of homes receiving three or more offers in homes priced $400,000 to $499,000 and $2 million and higher, while the share of low- to mid-priced homes experienced a decrease in three or more offers, particularly in homes priced $300,000 to $399,000, which dropped the sharpest – from 43 percent in October 2015 to 18 percent in October 2016.
  • About a third (31 percent) of properties had listing price reductions in October, up from 25 percent in September and down from 32 percent in October 2015.
  • Nearly half (45 percent) of REALTORS® were concerned about high home prices and housing affordability, while 26 percent indicated they were concerned about a lack of available homes for sale. REALTORS® also were concerned about a slowdown in economic growth, lending and financing, rising interest rates, and policy and regulations.
  • REALTORS®’ optimism of market conditions over the next year has been trending downward for the past few months but is still in positive territory at an index of 54 in October, unchanged from September but down from 57 in October 2015.

http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/2016releases/oct2016pending

San Diego County looks like the best in the state (highest index):

pend

*Note:  C.A.R.’s pending sales information is generated from a survey of more than 70 associations of REALTORS® and MLSs throughout the state.  Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, offering solid information on future changes in the direction of the market.  A sale is listed as pending after a seller has accepted a sales contract on a property. The majority of pending home sales usually become closed sales transactions one to two months later. The year 2008 was used as the benchmark for the Pending Homes Sales Index.  An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2008.

Posted by on Nov 26, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment