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Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

NSDCC January Sales

Though the MLS rules require that closed sales are reported within 48 hours, there will still be some late reporters of last month’s closings.  But these medians and averages should stay about the same:

January
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median DOM
#Sales <$900,000
2012
155
$760,000
$374/sf
63
97
2013
185
$845,000
$379/sf
44
103
2014
182
$1,072,500
$501/sf
41
70
2015
156
$1,216,952
$515/sf
44
49

Buyers hoping to get a cheapie in Carmel Valley or Encinitas have had an excruciating experience.  Only 14 of the 49 sales that closed under $900,000 last month were south of Carlsbad.

Posted by on Feb 5, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 7 comments

San Diego is #1

san diego downtown1

While San Diego may not be the most expensive city to own a home, it is considered the least affordable.

According to a study conducted by Realtor.com, San Diego ranks as the most unaffordable city in terms of real estate in relation to income.

“In more than 90 percent of the zip codes, less than half of the people can afford to buy homes. That’s the worst in any metropolitan area in the U.S.,” said University of San Diego economics professor Alan Gin.

http://fox5sandiego.com/2015/02/03/san-diego-ranked-as-least-affordable-city-in-u-s/

Posted by on Feb 4, 2015 in Local Flavor, Sales and Price Check | 9 comments

$1,000,000+ Sales, 4th Qtr.

The national fourth-quarter data is discussed in the video below, and Kelly makes a great point at the very end.

Statistically we’ve been steady, and I triple-checked these numbers!  These are the sales of houses between Carlsbad and La Jolla that closed at or above $1,000,000 in the fourth quarter:

Year
# of NSDCC $1M+ Sales
Avg SF
Avg $/sf
Median SP
4Q11
191
4,376sf
$493/sf
$1,425,000
4Q12
331
3,903sf
$535/sf
$1,500,000
4Q13
330
3,771sf
$598/sf
$1,507,592
4Q14
331
3,762sf
$591/sf
$1,555,000

From cnbc.com – an excerpt:

The stronger dollar has also hurt overseas demand, as U.S. homes become expensive for those buying with other currencies.

The most expensive home deal in the fourth quarter was the $70 million sale of the 23,000-square-foot ultra-modern home in Beverly Hills, California, sold to Markus “Notch” Persson, the founder of the Minecraft video game. The house, built on spec by handbag magnate Bruce Makowsky, was listed for $85 million.

Outside of New York, the community with the largest number of $1 million-plus homes sold in the quarter was Manhattan Beach, California, with 109 sales. Laguna Beach, California, was second, with 91.

Among the biggest discounts in the quarter was the $5 million sale of a waterfront property in Newport, Rhode Island, that had once been listed for $12.9 million. A property in Santa Paula, California, listed for $6.34 million ended up selling for $3.5 million.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102344819

Posted by on Jan 18, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Why Sell Your House Now

Dec2014

We need more homes to sell! From the DQ:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2015/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA150114.aspx

“One month doesn’t make a trend, but December’s uptick in home sales might indicate renewed interest in housing thanks to lower mortgage rates and job growth in recent months,” said Andrew LePage, data analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick. “The gain came despite a continued decline in the share of homes sold to investors and cash buyers.

If demand continues to build, we’ll need more supply to keep up with it. One of the big questions hanging over the housing market is whether higher demand and home values will lead to a lot more people listing their homes for sale, as well as more new-home construction, which remains well below average.”

The ultra-low mortgage rates have gotten every buyer’s attention, and the sales are starting to reflect it – just like at the end of 2012.  If the December sales are the precursor, then we are at least looking at a frenzy-lite experience over the next few months:

NSDCC December Sales
# of Dec. Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
Avg $/sf
2010
205
$835,000
69
$388/sf
2011
220
$800,000
62
$351/sf
2012
294
$849,500
44
$402/sf
2013
211
$1,075,000
40
$485/sf
2014
243
$1,075,000
41
$486/sf

Around the NSDCC, you can sell your home for more than it has ever been worth.  But is that enough to cause people to sell?  For most people, no. We like living here, and have no place better to go.

We don’t need everyone to move.  All we need is about 10% more listings than last year, and we’ll hit full frenzy. The 2003-2004 era was the craziest frenzy of all-time, and it’s because we had more houses to sell:

Year
Number of New Listings, First Half (Jan-Jun)
2003
5,178
2004
5,162
2013
4,817
2014
4,681

In a region of 300,000 people, all we need is about 80 more houses per month to sell.  We need a few potential sellers to change their mind about selling later, and sell now instead.

If you know you are going to be selling in a few years anyway, but these ideal conditions look too good to pass up, here’s how you can justify moving now:

1.  Move before you retire.  If you were thinking about downsizing and wanted to stay local, then either buy a condo close to home, or move to the outskirts where you can still buy a home for less than $500,000 – and commute to work for a year or two.  The low-end market is much hotter, and prices moving up quicker.

2.  Sell and rent. If you know you are going to be leaving town shortly, sell when the market is red hot, and rent a beach hut for a year or two.  Yes, rents are outrageous – but your home’s sales price will be too!

3. Retire early.  You are making more money in the stock market than you are at that stinking job you can barely tolerate.  Cash out while you can!

4.  Sell and move when you are healthy.  If you’ve been in the same home for more than 10 years, you have a lot of stuff to sort through – physically, mentally, and emotionally.  It is much easier when you have your health.

5.  Move up when rates are low.  Obviously, if you are moving up and financing the next purchase, these low rates are advantageous.

6.  Sell before rates go up.  Remember that in June 2013, that mortgage rates moved back into the mid-4% range on a rumor that the Fed was going to tighten – which they never did.  It won’t take much to pull this punch bowl.

Historically, the market has been a ten-year cycle, and the SD trough this time was April 2009.  It got dragged out longer in the 2005-2007 era by Angelo’s nutty no-doc financing, and today’s low rates might extend the party a while longer.  But it isn’t going to last forever, and mortgage rates will go up before the Fed does anything.

Once mortgage rates go up, buyers will expect lower prices, and we saw prices stall out much of last year.  But do you want to sell for less?  Not until you test the market for a year or two, and by then, buyers will be in control.

Contact me today for a free consultation!  jim@jimklinge.com

Posted by on Jan 16, 2015 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

SD Lower Tier Is Hotter

SD Tiered

The ivory-tower opinion below is blaming speculators for a mini-bubble, but around here I’d say that over 90% of the home sales were regular, organic real estate transactions in 2013.  Prices may fall in the coming months (slightly), and if they do, it will be because buyers are being patient and picking off only the best buys.

http://journal.firsttuesday.us/california-tiered-home-pricing/

Home prices displayed mixed signals in Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego in the single month of October 2014. Prices dipped in San Diego, remained roughly level in Los Angeles and rose slightly in San Francisco. Low-tier property prices are still on average 10% higher than one year earlier. Mid-tier and high-tier prices are 6% higher.

As in 2010, today’s price movement is the tail end of a mini-bubble, set into motion some 18 months earlier. This price rise was produced by short-lived speculator interference in 2013 (not a tax stimulus, as in 2009). This pricing activity is under pressure from insufficient personal incomes, rising fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rates and new construction.

Prices are expected to fall in the coming months, likely bottoming in mid-2016 and retreating toward the mean price trendline. The cooling of speculative fever and continually rising mortgage rates will prolong the falling trend in sales volume, pulling prices down in turn. Remember, real estate prices track and run with bond prices due to interest rate movement. A lag time of up to 12 months exists due to expectations of continued recent price movement — the sticky price phenomenon.

The graph tells the story – the higher-end market is ‘soft’, and only those with precision pricing are selling.

Posted by on Jan 8, 2015 in Forecasts, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

Nov/Dec Sales

For those who’d like some data to share over the holiday table, let’s compare two months’ worth of sales to help smooth out the extremes.

Here are the combined November and December NSDCC detached-home sales:

Year
# of Sales
Avg. Cost-per-SF
Median SP
2011
396
$361/sf
$788,250
2012
535
$408/sf
$875,000
2013
398
$480/sf
$1,055,000
2014
341
$501/sf
$1,100,000

Once this month closes out, we should hit around 400 sales too, which is incredible, considering how much higher prices are today. The cost-per-sf and the median sales price are both 4% higher than in 2013.

Posted by on Dec 24, 2014 in Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

SoCal November Sales

Nov sales

Lots of poking around, but no mention of sellers asking too much:

http://dqnewspressreleases.blogspot.com/2014/12/november-southland-home-sales-press.html

“Southern California home sales are closing on a low note in 2014,” said Andrew LePage, data analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick. “Inventory still lags demand in many markets and traditional buyers haven’t filled the void left by the investors who’ve pulled out. Among would-be buyers, affordability and mortgage availability remain as hurdles, as do concerns about job security and the direction of the housing market.

But there are reasons to expect more housing demand ahead. According to recent data from the federal government, job and income growth has improved. Many people who became renters after a foreclosure or short sale over the past seven years will want to buy again. And potential home buyers sitting on the fence might be tempted to jump off if they see evidence that mortgage rates will spike from today’s exceptionally low levels.”

Posted by on Dec 15, 2014 in Sales and Price Check | 5 comments

NSDCC November Sales

pres

We saw HERE how the new president of the N.A.R. has three goals for his term; winning the disintermediation battle, realtor safety, and having 100% of realtors get involved with the association.

But in another interview, he also mentioned that he wanted to “help further distinguish the difference in the minds of consumers between a REALTOR and a non-member real estate agent, and to help improve the understanding of that important distinction by the general public.”

The difference is the Code of Ethics.

But how many non-member real estate agents are there?  I could only think of one guy who is a renegade independent broker, but he doesn’t do much business.  Have you seen any non-member agents?

The $400 we pay each year to belong to the club does give us free access to the C.A.R. online forms – and those who are non-members have to pay $1,000 per year to access the same. So it makes sense to stay in the club.

But I checked – there are 5,600 people paying dues to the North San Diego County Association of Realtors, and of those, 1,100 are non-members.  But the vast majority have to be appraisers and assistants who don’t need access to the online forms.

I don’t know why the NAR president has a concern about non-member agents.  He may want to consider helping members be more productive, which wasn’t on his goals’ list.  There are over 10,000 agents in the three realtor associations in SD County, but there were only 2,121 sales in November of all types of residential properties.

Here are the November sales of detached homes from Carlsbad to La Jolla:

November
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Avg DOM
2011
176
$772,500
$372/sf
97
2012
241
$885,000
$415/sf
80
2013
187
$1,030,000
$474/sf
58
2014
163
$1,029,900
$497/sf
56

The frenzy broke out at the end of 2012, and by the end of 2013 it had subsided. The average cost-per-sf went up 5% since last November, but check the median prices – a balanced set of sales!

Posted by on Dec 8, 2014 in Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Higher-End Surge

surge

Hat tip to daytrip for sending in this latimes.com article about the surge of high-end home sales across the Southland:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-luxury-home-sales-20141124-story.html#page=1

An excerpt:

Luxury home sales in Southern California are hitting levels not seen in decades. The number of homes bought for $2 million or more in recent months is the highest on record. Sales worth $10 million or more are on pace this year to double their number from the heights of the housing bubble.

“It’s pretty mind-blowing, to be honest,” said Cindy Ambuehl, an agent with the Partners Trust in Brentwood. “The luxury market has been completely on fire.”

Low interest rates, a strong stock market and waves of cash sloshing in from overseas are boosting demand for high-dollar homes. A record 1,436 homes worth $2 million or more were sold in the six-county Southland in the second quarter, according to CoreLogic DataQuick.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

How are we doing locally?  It’s worth noting that the supply of higher-end homes has been surging too (assuming the ‘refreshing’ of listings has been fairly constant over the years).

Below you can see how the market has been shifting upward:

NSDCC Detached Homes Listed/Sold By Price Range

Year
0-$1M
$1M-$2M
$2M-$3M
$3M+
2011 New Listings/Solds
3,028/1,663
1,446/674
447/154
410/93
2012 New Listings/Solds
2,362/2,039
1,313/819
404/194
415/133
2013 New Listings/Solds
2,140/1,750
1,713/1,074
560/259
514/168
2014 New Listings/Solds
1,791/1,263
1,723/938
539/218
538/161

These are 12-month stats so you need to extrapolate to compare 2014 accurately (add about 10% to these current counts). You can see how the Under-$1M folks have been left shaking their head – they have about a third fewer homes to consider since 2011!

Posted by on Nov 24, 2014 in North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

“Successful U-Turn”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-usa-economy-housing-idUSKCN0J41P620141120

U.S. home resales jumped to their highest level in more than a year in October and outpaced the sales level a year ago for the first time in 2014, further evidence the housing market is on a recovery path.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Thursday said existing home sales rose 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 5.26 million units, the highest rate since September of last year. Sales rose 2.5 percent compared to a year ago, the first time since October 2013 that nesales have risen above the prior-year levels.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales falling to a 5.16 million-unit pace, from an upwardly revised rate of 5.18 million units in September.

“This is the first time in the year where we have seen a year over year annual gain, which means that existing home sales have made that successful U-turn,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, told reporters.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I thought things were going pretty good nationally, and if we could get looser credit then everything would be fine.  Now I guess a ‘successful U-turn’ means….good or bad? :lol:

Yunnie deserves a break; he has done a much better job than David Lereah.  In July, Yun did say that he expected a slight uptick in sales during the second half of the year:

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/07/pending-home-sales-slip-in-june

Locally this year we haven’t beat any of last year’s monthly sales counts.  Here are the NSDCC Detached-Home Sales for 2013 and 2014:

graph (52)

Last year was so hot due to low rates and prices that it’s doubtful we will see those numbers anytime soon.  But we have been close enough!

Posted by on Nov 20, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments