Most national forecasts are predicting a 3% to 4% appreciation rate for 2016, which has to be a safe bet. If it comes in anywhere from -2% to +8%, you can say that you were close.
Zillow has enough algorithms that they are willing to make predictions for each local area. They have conflicting numbers, depending on where you look on their website – these are from the Home Values section:
You can see that Zillow was less optimistic last year too. Most were predicting that mortgage rates would be in the mid-4s by now, so the lower rates in 2015 helped fuel higher-than-expected prices. Could rates stay right where they are? Maybe, but both Zillow and I think the euphoria will die down next year:
Zillow Price-Appreciation Predictions
For some reason, Zillow is also labeling each market from Warm to Very Cold. The labels don’t seem to correspond to the predictions, so I don’t know their intent – are they just trying to tell you to put on a sweater?
How will buyers feel about getting worked over for that last 2% to 3% when they see they are in a ‘Very Cold’ market?
The OC Register is reporting that million-dollar sales in Orange County are down 12% this mid-summer. We’re watching the sales counts closely, because we know that is the leading indicator for the market.
How about our north county coastal region?
The OCR only looked at zip codes that had a $1,000,000 median sales price, which in our case, excludes all four zips in Carlsbad.
Here are the stats on the Encinitas-to-La Jolla sales over $1,000,000 (where 91% of the active listings today are over $1M) between July 13th and August 11th:
# of Sales
Our $1M sales count was up 9% YoY, instead of down – yippee! But nobody in this market should get giddy about pricing in general – it is flat, at best.
Now that Spence has been featured on every major media outlet as the prince of real estate, the stuff in his book carries more weight – whether it’s true or not. He makes the point at every stop that Starbucks is good for real estate values, so…….
The owners of the Beachside Del Mar also own the Del Mar Highlands Town Center.
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