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Category Archive: ‘Boomers’

Best Places to Retire

apache

For most baby boomers, it takes leaving town to really make it worth selling.

But where do you go?

If you still want to stay around SoCal, places like Idyllwild, Julian, or Running Springs are all within a half-day drive.  If you don’t mind going further, places like Prescott and Payson, AZ are at a high enough elevation that you get out of the heat.

Or check one of these spots:

http://www3.forbes.com/investing/25-best-places-to-retire-in-2016/

Posted by on May 2, 2016 in Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

How to Throttle Prices

exp

Millienials – or anyone feeling priced out – really should support permissive housing policy to help keep a throttle on prices.  Here’s evidence showing that faster-growing cities have more-modest price increases, although this chart is older (prices over last 5 years have been straight up). Thanks Ollie!

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/18/why-the-great-divide-is-growing-between-affordable-and-expensive-u-s-cities/

Across the country, a divide is emerging between cities that are growing outward and remaining affordable and ones that are hemmed in by geography and onerous zoning codes and are becoming  more and more expensive.

As a whole, U.S. cities are expanding as rapidly as they have throughout the last half-century. From the 1950s until the 2000s they have added about 10,000 square miles per decade, or an area roughly the size of Massachusetts, according to research by Issi Romem, chief economist at real-estate site BuildZoom, to be released Monday. But beneath the surface a divide is deepening.

On the one side are cities such as San Francisco, Boston, New York and Miami that have slowed their pace of expansion dramatically since the 1970s, in part as they have added layer upon layer of building regulations. On the other side are cities concentrated in the southeast and Texas, which have grown outward and seen much slower price growth.

The developed residential area in Atlanta, for example, grew by 208% from 1980 to 2010 and real home values grew by 14%. In contrast, in the San Francisco-San Jose area, developed residential land grew by just 30%, while homes values grew by 188%.

The developed residential area in Raleigh, N.C., grew by 219% in the same period, while home values grew by 27%. In Seattle, the developed area grew by 69%, while home values grew by 119%.

Mr. Romem draws the distinction succinctly: expansive cities versus expensive cities.

“If you don’t let the city grow, you’re going to get prices going upward…and see the middle class being pushed out,” Mr. Romem said.

Read full article here:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/18/why-the-great-divide-is-growing-between-affordable-and-expensive-u-s-cities/

Posted by on Apr 18, 2016 in Boomers, Builders, Jim's Take on the Market, The Future | 2 comments

733 Stratford Drive

733-stratford-dr-076

I love my new Encinitas Highlands listing at 733 Stratford Drive, which is at the top of the hill and offers some of the best ocean views in EH!  This is another property that is ideally suited for the multi-generational buyers because there are bedrooms and full baths on the ground floor plus a detached 1br/1ba cottage out back.

This is my first real tour of a house with the new camera (and because I’m trying to move slower and smoother), so this is the extended full version of the whole property:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/733-Stratford-Dr-Encinitas-CA-92024/16718577_zpid/

Posted by on Apr 14, 2016 in Boomers, Bubbleinfo TV, Encinitas, Klinge Realty, Listing Agent Practices, Market Buzz, Osmo, Thinking of Buying?, Why You Should List With Jim | 3 comments

Granny Pods

Med

Hat tip to daytrip for sending in this information on granny pods, which are fully-contained housing units you can put in your backyard:

http://www.lifedaily.com/with-a-granny-pod-grandma-can-live-in-your-backyard/

The company’s website has pods as low as $39,625:

http://www.medcottage.com/products.php

These could be a viable solution for those wanting to downsize, but having trouble finding the right home, at the right price.

You wanted grandma close by, right?

med1

med2

Posted by on Apr 13, 2016 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Interesting Houses, Jim's Take on the Market | 7 comments

“Aging Tsunami”

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The population of aging baby boomers in California will double by 2050.  Downsizing will be a hot topic, and one-story homes will be very popular!  Will we see baby-boomer communes?

From the beach party movies of the 1960s to the hippies of the 1970s and Silicon Valley’s baby billionaires today, California has long projected a youthful ambiance.

That’s about to change in a big way. The aging of California’s huge post-World War II baby-boom generation, combined with plummeting birth and immigration rates, means the Golden State is quickly going gray.

A huge growth in the over-65 population, from about 4.5 million today to more than 11 million by 2050 – nearly a quarter of the state’s residents then – will disrupt labor markets as it imposes major new costs on taxpayers for health care and other services.

It could also alter the state’s politics as the elderly become a decisive voting bloc, not only because of rising numbers but because the propensity to vote increases with age.

First, the numbers.

Roughly 11 percent of the nearly 40 million Californians today are 65-plus. The state Department of Finance estimates that by 2020, the over-65 cohort will rise to 15 percent, then to nearly 20 percent by 2030, when the youngest of the baby boomers will pass 65, and reach 22.3 percent by 2050, double the current proportion.

One state document puts it this way: “California will surpass the national average for age by 2040 even though it is currently the sixth youngest state in the nation with only 11 percent of its population 65 and older.

Read full article here – many interesting conclusions:

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/dan-walters/article45009978.html#

Posted by on Apr 1, 2016 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, One-Story, The Future | 0 comments

How Long Have Sellers Owned?

boomer selling

How many of the long-time owners are selling the family homestead, and downsizing now that the kids are gone?

We don’t know for sure who falls into that category – people with older kids could have bought a house 5-8 years ago and already be empty-nesters.  But a growing trend of long-time owners selling could open up some flexibility on price, which could slow down the appreciation trend.

We could also assume that the longer it’s been since the last sale, the more renovating the house could need.  The long-timers should have ample equity, which could enable them to cave on price, rather than remodel just to sell.  Those who went off to the pearly gates are more likely to have their heirs dump on price too.

Our research department checked the last 125 house sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad – the closings dated back to 11/23/15.  These are the number of sales in groups based on when the seller purchased the house:

La Jolla to Carlsbad House Sales – Previous Sale Date

New houses: 3 (2%)

2012-2015: 22 (18%)

2009-2011: 19 (15%)

2004-2008: 29 (23%)

2000-2003: 18 (14%)

0-1999: 34 (27%)

The last two categories combined for 42% of the total sales.  Not only are those houses at least 12 years old (most were much older) and probably need renovating, but in almost all the cases, the equity positions were huge.

If there is some future softening of home values, it will be more likely due to the long-timers being more reasonable on price, rather than the ‘bubble’.

Other facts:

A. The median sales price was $1,080,000

B. The average cost-per-sf was $505/sf.

C. The average market time was 60 days.

D. There were 24% of the total that sold in the first 10 days on market.

E. Eleven sellers sold for less than they paid (9%).

F. In 14 of the sales, the listing agent represented the buyer too (11%).

G. Five were ‘sold before processing’.

The first two categories – homes purchased since 2009 – totaled 33% of the sales.  Those sellers enjoyed a nice windfall of quick appreciation, and may be move-up buyers?

Those who bought in 2004-2008 (23%) were probably glad they waited!

Posted by on Dec 12, 2015 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Downsizing, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sellers Waiting For Comeback | 0 comments

Millennials Top 10

Mtop10

San Diego is the highest-priced in the Top 10 – we want affluent millennials!

From realtor.com:

http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/where-the-millennials-move-to-in-2016/

Is there any part of U.S. life that hasn’t been dramatically altered by the millennial invasion? This vast group of young Americans has already altered general perceptions of job place behavior, pop culture, media consumption, self-entitlement, and acceptable facial hair. But nowhere is its impact greater felt than in the housing market—and that impact is getting bigger all the time. Numbering 43.5 million, the older group of millennials (aged 25 to 34) makes up 13.6% of the U.S. population but fully 30% of the current population of existing-home buyers.

In 2016, millennials have the power to remake the real estate landscape wherever they choose to settle. But where will that be?

You might assume that young people are naturally drawn to the nation’s largest and most renowned metropolises such as New York City and Los Angeles to jump-start their careers and enjoy the full-throttle excitement of big-city life. And you’d be right—at least partly. But here’s the rub: Increasingly, they can’t afford to live in these places. Sure, Brooklyn may be a notorious hipster/millennial mecca, but how many 30-year-olds can afford $1.75 million one-bedroom co-ops? No wonder shrewd young home buyers are increasingly turning to cities that are relatively affordable and have lots of jobs and maybe even a trendy atmosphere all their own.

As part of the realtor.com® 2016 real estate forecast, we’ve pulled out our ironic Magic 8 Ball to prognosticate the top 10 markets likely to see a surge of millennial buyers. Get ready for an incursion of Sriracha, artisanal doughnut shops, and upscale tattoo parlors! And just to be fair, we also spotlight five places that seem to have lost their charm with the young generation and are likely to see the biggest exodus this coming year.

The ranking takes into our proprietary 2016 Sales & Price projections the representation of millennial users among viewers of “for sale” listing pages on realtor.com from July to October, and the share of head of households aged 25 to 34 relative to all heads of households, from 2015 Nielsen Pop-Facts.

6. San Diego, CA

Median list price: $585,000

Population share of older millennials: 15.5%

A strong economy led by the biotech industry, high-quality universities, year-round mild weather, gorgeous beaches with rich wildlife—do young people need more reasons to move to San Diego? No? OK.

http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/where-the-millennials-move-to-in-2016/

Posted by on Dec 7, 2015 in Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 2 comments

Selling to Millennials

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http://www.nextavenue.org/how-boomers-can-sell-their-homes-to-millennials/

Generally speaking, boomers who bought homes to start families purchased what their budgets allowed and fixed them up over time. Nothing could be further from the minds of typical Millennial buyers.

For the most part, Millennials are looking for the finished product and will pay for it. They want what they see in magazines — nothing less. They don’t seem to view themselves living in any one place for a very long time, so there’s no time for gradually rolled out home improvements.

The bottom line: To capture the highest selling price, undertake some key home renovations before listing your house for sale.

Read full article here:

http://www.nextavenue.org/how-boomers-can-sell-their-homes-to-millennials/

Posted by on Nov 4, 2015 in Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Selling? | 0 comments

Millennials’ Housing Worries

Millennials will undoubtedly “drive the growth of aggregate housing demand’.

But at what price?

We’ve already agreed that the majority of baby boomers will be fine, and age in place.  After their demise, the disposition of the house can be debated, but it’s really the same argument.  The heirs who are comfortable will keep the family estate to occupy or rent, and the desperate heirs will sell it.

Apparently there are about as many millennials as boomers – roughly 75 million.

Will there be as many millennials who are ready, willing, and able to pay today’s prices – or most-likely higher prices – to soak up the supply of desperate homes being sold?

Below is the latest chart on how they feel.  About half (56%) are worried about the cost of housing – at least they are paying attention.

What about the rest?

Either the other 44% plan to be rich and don’t worry about the cost of housing (in which case we should be covered)…..or they have already given up hope.

Click on image to enlarge slightly.

Housing

Posted by on Oct 14, 2015 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market | 4 comments

A Million More Should Do It

Some disagree with my idea that, while the majority of baby boomers will be fine, there will be a group that is financially restrained and will need to sell their house.

Richard Green is a USC ivory-tower guy, so he obviously knows his stuff.  He chimed in on twitter, and cited his report that mentioned:

The massive demographic shift will not result in another housing crisis.

This is because the educational and income levels of the current and future seniors are relatively higher than before, leading them to consume more than previous generations. Also, the size of the Millennial generation will drive the growth of aggregate housing demand, although the growth of per household housing demand may be relatively modest.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2614638

He doesn’t just make this stuff up. He also includes formulas to prove his case:

so there

So there you go – nothing to worry about.

A likely scenario is that any future home sellers will get bailed out by the newcomers.  According the SANDAG projections, there will be another million people moving to San Diego County!  Yippee!

2050

http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_1490_11298.pdf

Posted by on Oct 14, 2015 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, The Future | 9 comments