Inventory Watch

The local market will wind up the year with the lowest number of annual listings ever, the fewest number of annual sales ever, the highest prices ever (the latest Case-Shiller Index released tomorrow), and we’ll enter the new year with the fewest number of active listings ever.

What’s the worst thing that could happen?

We keep sliding into the Priced-To-Sit program, where sellers are happy for the market to come up to their aspirational price.  It’s a strategy that was perfected in Rancho Santa Fe, where before the pandemic the actives-to-pendings ratio ran 10:1, and sellers just waited until their day came.

I’ll never forget the one RSF listing agent who took great pride in telling me that her one-year anniversary of her listing being on the market was coming up the following week. She was proud of her endurance and willingness to hold out until the ‘right buyer’ came along.

Interestingly, it was in 2012 that we had the lowest annual number of listings, and the following year got frenzied when the number of listings popped up by seven percent. There were other contributing factors to the resurgence, and our recent history is probably the exact opposite of then (years of real estate prosperity now vs. years of doom then).

Best-case scenario?

We get a 10% surge in new listings that aren’t priced ridiculously, and buyers keep buying – causing momentum to build through the selling season and give everyone assurance that it’s going to be alright.

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Hiring A Buyer-Agent

Hopefully the hubbub about realtors’ pay will cause consumers to investigate agents more thoroughly, which I’ve been encouraging for a while. Here’s one of my blog posts from 2009 – check the comment section too:

Most buyers struggle to find a quality realtor to assist them in buying a house, and it’s the realtors’ fault.  The national, state, and local associations are so adamant about protecting the new agents and giving everyone an equal chance, that they provide no help whatsoever to the general public.

Their message?  When trying to find good help, you’re on your own.

So how do you get what you need?

Everyone tells you to ask around, get referrals from friends, go to open houses, go with a big company, go with a small company, new agent, old agent, kickbacks, etc., that it probably doesn’t matter where you get a realtor, what matters is how to evaluate them.

Here are my things to look for when evaluating a realtor’s ability to help you buy a house:

1. ASK ABOUT THEIR RECENT TRACK RECORD OF SALES – Let’s cut to the chase, shall we?

Has the agent been able to successfully guide others to the finish line this year?  The best answer is 1-2 closings per month, if you want an agent who delivers personal service.  Any agent who sells four or more per month is slamming people into houses, and those at zero, well let’s face it, they don’t have anything of value to add to the equation.  Get a testimonial from a past client, and/or at look at the sales they’ve done and judge them to see if they were good deals.  (I’ve assisted 10 buyers with closing their sale this year).

These current market conditions are unlike any seen before.  If your agent has been closing some buyer transactions this year, they must have something of value to share.  Here’s what to look for:

2. ASK THEM, “WHAT/WHERE ARE TODAY’S HOT BUYS?  How they answer that will tell you just about everything you need to know.  If they give you a smart-aleck answer, they probably aren’t the right agent for you, only because they aren’t in the game.  If they can name one, at least they are looking at properties, and those are agents who can provide value – ideally your buyer’s agent is previewing property every day, in person.

3. THEY SHOULD ASK YOU QUALIFYING QUESTIONS – If they jump in the car without asking questions, their time must not be too value to them, and this isn’t a business where wasting a lot of your time makes for good quality realtors.

4.  THEY SHOULD KNOW ABOUT FINANCING – I guess it’s alright if they just hook you up with their lender to get pre-qualified, but if they can ask/answer the qualifying questions themselves, it might help when it comes time to structure an offer.

5. HAVE THEM SHOW YOU SOME HOUSES – Go in their car, and if they don’t need a map to get around, you’ve found an experienced veteran.  It’s not guaranteed that they can help, nor is it required, but it’s a good indicator.  If they are pointing out specific sales/listings along the way (theirs or others), then they know the comps too, which is another great indicator.

6. EVALUATING THE PROPERTY’S CONDITION – They don’t have to be a general contractor, but they should be able to educate you about the property’s condition.  If all they do is point out that “This is the living room”, they’re not going to have much to offer in terms of added value, unless you don’t know what a living room is.

7. HAVE A VENDOR’S LIST – Successful agents know professionals to call to fix stuff – the more thorough the list, the more problems they have encountered.

8.  DO THEY CHARGE FOR THEIR SERVICE? – Ask about “transaction fees”, “processing fees”, or “compliance fees”.  These are junk fees used to pad their bottom line, and are not required.

9.  DO THEY INSIST ON HAVING YOU SIGN A BUYER-BROKER AGREEMENT? – Pass on those, unless you got married after having one conversation too.

10. “FORECLOSURE SPECIALIST” – Be very leery – we are all foreclosure specialists now.  Any agent who tries to make it sound like they have some special “foreclosure ability” is blowing smoke, unless they are listing REOs and not putting them on the open market.  If they don’t mind breaching their fiduciary duty to their bank-seller, they’ll sell you down the river in a heartbeat.

11.  SHORT SALES – I personally see 2-3 short sales every day that have already found their buyer before MLS input, and it is VERY frustrating.  These agents don’t care about their own reputation amongst their peers, and that alone should make you wonder.

12.  OFF-THE-GRID – Ask about what agents can do to find properties that aren’t on the regular websites.  Any positive response would be a good indicator, and any examples of closing one would be even better.

If they can get through those questions and you still like them, you found a good agent!

NEW AGENTS – A new agent’s zeal and availability can really help buyers who don’t have the time or willingness to search for properties themselves.  Want somebody to do the legwork for you?  Put a new, hungry agent on it, but there may be some struggle clinching the deal if there are competing offers.

OUT-OF-COUNTY AGENTS – You’ll be doing all the work yourself, so your own proficiency in being a realtor needs to be up to par.

RELATIVES – Many deals crash and burn, and hearts are broken over houses.  Want a relative to help you?  Make sure that you’ll accept never wanting to talk to them if they cost you the right house, at the right price.

“GREAT TIME TO BUY” – If you hear that catchy phrase, just walk away.

The inventory of quality homes at good prices is EXTREMELY LOW, causing the buying experience to be full of frustration and disappointment.  You can look for weeks or months without seeing anything attractive, so I don’t know why any agent would call that a great time.

REALTOR TEAMS – No problem, but don’t interview the big dog and then get passed off to the assistant without asking the same questions.  You want to be clear about who is helping you, and what you can count on.  In my case, I may have Richard or another KR realtor help me on occasion, but I’m still the main person in charge, and am responsible for your success.

Realtor Definitions

“Curb Appeal” = The art of making your house look so good from the outside that potential buyers forget they can’t afford it.

“Cozy” = It means you can touch both walls at the same time.

“Open Floor Plan” = Good luck finding a place to hide from your family.

“Ocean View” = You might see water if you stand on your tiptoes and squint really hard.

“Panoramic Ocean View” = Less squinting needed.

“Low-Maintenance Yard” = Prepare to embrace the beauty of gravel and succulents. Your dog will hate it.

“Charming” = The real estate version of “it has a great personality.”

“Improved Pricing” = It’s less of a ripoff now.

“Off-Market” = Everyone has passed on it already.

“Seller Will Carry” = No bank will touch this.

“Bring All Offers” = My seller is nuts, so lowball me.

“Perfect For 1031” = Perfect if you want to overpay.

“Trophy Property” = Overpriced.

“Generational Property” = Way overpriced.

“Call For Price” = We’re embarrassed to publish it.

“Distressed” = Not distressed.

“For Sale By Owner” = For sale by ego.

“Below Replacement Cost” = Meaningless filler words.

“Leasehold Interest” = You’re not buying real estate.

“Fixer-Upper” = A polite term for a house that’s about to be condemned.

“Needs some love” = You might need therapy after seeing the kitchen.

“Rustic Charm” = No Wi-Fi, but plenty of cobwebs to keep you company.

“Open Concept” = No place to hide your junk.

“Vintage Decor” = Previous owners thought you’d enjoy their 1970s design choices as a timeless gift.

“Quaint Neighborhood” = The only exciting thing that happens is the occasional squirrel chase.

“Up-and-Coming Area” = It’s not great now, but just wait until someone opens an artisanal kombucha shop.

La Jolla $22,500,000

This guy is a former Compass agent who now makes a living from doing video tours of homes for sale. It kind of sounds like what I do, but he has 3.5 million subscribers and this video has over 4.6 million views!

The sale did close for $22,500,000 in April, and the buyer was the owner of the Super Star Car Washes which you see all around town:

Doobie Brothers – Lahaina

The Doobie Brothers wrote a new song about Maui, and included Mick Fleetwood, Jake Shimabukuro, and Henry Kapono on this epic video that includes footage before and after the fire. Mick Fleetwood has lived in Maui for decades, and owns the well-known restaurant named Fleetwood’s which was lost in the fire.

Pumpkin Bread

This is my grandmother’s recipe that Kayla has been touting regularly. If you don’t make it for Thanksgiving, consider it for Christmas – because it is fantastic. (Kathy is my sister)

Non-Exclusive Representation

One more blog post about the coming changes to the realtor environment.

Regardless of how the commission lawsuits are resolved, there will be a push – and possibly a mandate – for buyers to pay their agent directly. Agents will want buyers to sign an agreement to that effect.

Above is a copy of the verbiage on page one of the standard agreement.

If a buyer agrees and signs this form, and then finds a home on his own, he can ‘cancel this agreement by giving written notice to the other’. But only as long as THE BOXES CIRCLED IN RED AREN’T CHECKED.

Will buyers read the agreement before signing, and be reluctant to check the two boxes?

Otherwise the form is reasonable, with the agent being covered for any properties they recommend to the buyer with analysis (paragraph B1).

All that matters is whether the agent will insist on the two red-circled boxes being checked. I think a buyer will pause at agreeing to exclusive representation, but non-exclusive should be acceptable.

I doubt that I’ll use the form at all, unless Compass requires it. Why bother if you can cancel any time?

Happy Thanksgiving!

Turkey Talking Points

What a great day! Delivering pies and talking real estate – what a privilege!

Talking points you might hear over Thanksgiving dinner.

 – It’s too unaffordable. Prices have to adjust.

There will be the occasional seller who gets caught in a pinch and has to sell that day – and might take a 10% to 20% discount. All you have to do is be there on that day. It is why you have a realtor!

But will it be a superior home on a premium lot? Highly unlikely – those owners know what they got.

Buyers need to decide: Are you a lowballer, or are you trying to buy a high-quality property? It’s either/or.

Bottome line: Prices may adjust downward on the inferior properties. Take your chances.

– There seems to be more homes for sale – is it the big slowdown?

As time goes on and the market gets tighter, it will be natural for sellers to price too high and cause inventory to grow. It’s easier than ever to overprice and miss the market! What to do?

Spruce up the home and price attractively, which is about where the comps are….and not 5% to 10% higher.

Tip: Lately the local prices have been going up about 0.5% per month. But once a home is on the open market, the buyer expectations drop about 1% per week on price.

Once as home has been on the market for 2-3 weeks, there might be some negotiations on price!

 – Are commissions negotiable now?

Yes, absolutely and agents who are desperate and have no skills will be happy to represent you for 1% or less. It’s a ripoff. Find an agent who will produce beyond expectations. The best thing to come out of these lawsuits is that consumers will investigate agents more thoroughly!

Get Good Help!

If it gets hot, just call me. I’m happy to talk to people on the phone!

Pie Day!

A hearty thank you to all our supporters of Mama’s Kitchen! Our 160 pies is a new record for us, and today is delivery day so all of us are coming your way with pies!

This is our fifth year selling Mama’s Pies, which is their biggest fund-raiser.

Mama’s Pies is San Diego’s largest annual bake sale benefiting Mama’s Kitchen. Local bakers, restaurants and caterers donate fresh-baked pies to our organization, which in turn our volunteers sell to their friends, families, and co-workers.

Each pie sold allows Mama’s Kitchen to cook, prepare and deliver 12 meals to homebound individuals vulnerable to malnutrition due to HIV, cancer, heart disease, type 2 diabetes or chronic kidney disease. Together with hundreds of volunteers, businesses, and community supporters, Mama’s Kitchen strives to help our clients stay healthy, preserve their dignity, and keep their families together by providing, medically tailored home-delivered meals and nutrition education – all at no cost.

The pies have sold out, but if you’d like to donate, click here:

https://mamaspies.org/team/klinge-realty-group/

We are extremely grateful for your support – thank you!

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