There have only been 83 NSDCC sales recorded in December, 2023, which means we may not make it to 100 closings. January isn’t looking too good either, and from what I can find, we’ve never had less than 100 monthly sales, let alone in back-to-back months. But it’s coming.
It puts the squeeze on everyone.
Buyers lose faith that there will be more homes to consider and end up jumping at one. Sellers either think they can get away with any price and tack on an extra 5% to 10% over the comps from 2021….or they give up altogether and decide to wait until the market “gets better”.
Even with a little extra inventory, the market is going to look and feel uncertain. Is it going up or down?
When we are having the fewest sales ever, the the evidence is thin, and the results vary!
NSDCC December Sales Under $4,000,000:
Number of sales that closed for $100,000+OVER their list price: 12
Number of sales that closed for $100,000+UNDER their list price: 17
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings happen in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!
Here is some historical perspective (below). I included the stats from 2009, which was the last time the sky was falling and nobody wanted to sell their house. I would gladly take those numbers now!
Leave your guess in the comment section of the number of January listings, and whoever is closest to the actual count on February 29th will receive four tickets to a Padres game in 2024!
This isn’t a fancy way for me to get your contact information and keep calling you until you buy or die. You don’t even have to leave your contact information – just check back on February 29th.
The summary of 2023 guesses:
16 Noodle
89 Momento
99 Tom
104 BWell_SoCal
111 Majeed
115 Lifeisradincbad
117 Susie
119 Beachside
120 Curtis
128 Joe
130 Rob
136 Skip
140 Haile
142 MC
146 Derek
152 Drew
158 Susan
160 doughboy
165 Kingside
174 SurfRider
175 Sciguy 186 Rob Dawg
190 Bode
200 Jeff Campbell
203 Lauren Stickelman
213 Shadash
252 Aunt Nancy
262 Eddie89
298 Nick
333 Sherman Messing
149 Median
Last year, the contest ended on February 15th, and Rob Dawg’s guess of 186 was the closest to the 182 count that day. But since mid-February, another twenty-two January listings were added – go figure! Lauren S. – you were the actual winner last year so you’ll get four tickets for this season. This year, let’s extend the contest to the last day of February before picking the winner!
The lack of choices help cause frenzy conditions. When a top-quality listing hits the market, buyers feel like this might be their only chance this month, or this year, to buy such a good match to their needs – and then the lack of transparency makes them go nutty. Comparing the new inventory this month will help us predict the rest of the selling season.
It’s going to be a wild and crazy season – and not just for the Padres!
The NSDCC inventory is starting off the new year with virtually identical numbers as it did in 2023!
The big difference?
Last year everyone thought we had a recession coming, and this year it’s all blue sky ahead.
At the beginning of 2023, the 30-year mortgage rate was 6.48% and all we heard was that existing homeowners would never sell because their existing 3% rate had them ‘locked-in’.
Today’s rate is 6.61% and everyone says that the lower rates will free up inventory this year!
Let’s examine the statistics that will give us a better feel for the future of home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad. These are the three areas that are full of the homogeneous tract homes that give us a better read on the trends – they had 62% of the NSDCC sales last year:
To say that we’re in a mature market controlled by baby boomers is putting it lightly. The ‘locked-in’ effect has been around for a long time for whatever reason – but mostly because we live in paradise:
Carlsbad, CA
Encinitas,CA
Carmel Valley 92130
The vast majority of those who have been in their home since 2016 or longer are ‘locked-in’ because of the price they paid – they aren’t going to pay double or triple what they paid for their current home to just move down the street or around the corner. If they have lived in the same home this long, chances are they will stay to the end – and we’re talking about 80% to 90% of today’s homeowners!
Thankfully, life happens. Death, divorce, and job transfers will keep causing homes to come up for sale.
It will take a 20% YoY surge in NSDCC inventory this year just to match the number of homes for sale in 2022, and I’ll be happy if it is just a 10% increase over last year!
But we have become accustomed to frenzy conditions, and for many it is all they know. The current environment feels somewhat like 2013 again, which was the last time we had a non-covid surge. We were coming off a hot 4Q12, even though rates didn’t change much:
But the market exploded in 2013, just because. I think it’s going to happen again this year, just because.
We’ll find out soon enough – our first listing of the year will hit the market a week from today!
A production company devised a few musical experiences at the 2024 Rose Parade, and our daughter Natalie was one of the dancers! The parade started with a couple of songs, and the second song was sung inside a car (Honda was the main sponsor). Natalie was in the front seat, and got terrific face time on TV!
Think your job is tough? They rehearsed from 1-6am this morning in costume!
I produced 166 YouTube videos on my main channel this year, and these were the best, as decided by me. All had to have 200+ views to qualify:
This is just another grandma house blowing out at $125,000 over list, which isn’t remarkable. But this is the only video ever in which I slipped and fell down:
Some of my best thoughts about the market, long-term:
The Frenzy Cruise was hot all year and a good indicator that buyers will keep paying over list price for a home they really want. It’s just a matter of how much over:
Daughter Natalie had the time of her life touring football stadiums in America with Karol G this summer:
Natalie is in the Rose Parade tomorrow!
She will be dancing in the Grand Finale with Jordin Sparks but will also be featutred with other performers during the parade, starting at 8am Monday!
The U.S. Census Bureau released a report showing that about 4 million U.S. households with an adult age 65 or older had difficulty living in or using some features of their home.
About 50 million, or 40 percent, of U.S. homes had what were considered to be the most basic, aging-ready features: a step-free entryway into the home and a bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor.
About 4 million or 11 percent of older households reported difficulty living in or using their home. The share increased to nearly 25 percent among households with a resident age 85 or older.
Older homeowners tended to be aware of their home’s accessibility shortcomings – they just don’t do anything about them. Most older households did not plan to renovate to make their home more aging accessible – only about 6 percent of homeowners with at least one person aged 65 or older had plans for home improvement projects to make their home more accessible for people with physical limitations. For the oldest households (one person over 85 years old), this proportion increased to 9.1 percent.
If you are going to make one last move, do it when you are younger/healthy and can handle it. We just spent the last two days helping my uncle go through his ‘stuff’, and it’s amazing how much accumulates over time!
I’m guessing that our local NSDCC inventory has to be at least 10% higher in 2024 than it was this year. Heck, it would need to grow +20% just to get back to the same number of houses for sale in 2022!
Bill agrees that we should see more listings in 2024:
Somewhat lower mortgage rates – and time – will likely lead to more new listings in 2024. Still, mortgage rates will remain well above the pandemic lows, and therefore new listings will be depressed again in 2024.
The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2024. However, it seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels. Inventory is always something to watch!
So far, there have only been 73 NSDCC closings this month, which is well under the 110 sales last December. The median sales price is 11% higher, but with such low volume we can’t make much of that statistic. The current inventory is so picked over that it’s impressive there are that many sales.
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
