First LCV Listing of 2024

La Costa Valley (1,073 single-family homes) Annual Sales:

The new rule about getting profits tax-free went into effect in 1997, and it motivated people to move! The sales history of this house is an example of how it used to be – make a little money and be on your way:

But over the last 10-12 years, people stopped moving so much. Any of the original LCV homeowners were already empty-nesting, so it wasn’t the kids that kept them from moving. Rates were coming down a bit, and refinancing made it a little more affordable – and there wasn’t anywhere else to move locally that was better than what they had already.

Some may have thought that the 2007 buyer got left holding the bag. But he’s now listed for $2,085,000!

BofA Migration Data

Could it be that people are leaving other parts of California, but not as much from San Diego? This data suggests that, but for those who want to leave the state, Las Vegas is close enough that it’s a suburb for SoCal now.

Key takeaways

• Using Bank of America internal data we construct near real-time estimates of domestic migration flows, giving us almost one year of extra insight over Census Bureau data. Notably, we find pandemic migration trends are not reversing and we continue to see faster population inflow into sunbelt cities like Austin and Tampa.
• But house prices are weakening even in cities with growing populations. Why? In addition to high mortgage rates that are dampening demand in the near term, demographic composition also matters. For example, our data shows that population inflows into Austin skew younger, which might be putting more upward pressure on rents instead of on home prices.
• Looking through the current housing downturn, local housing markets with more Millennial and Baby Boomer residents could see strength as the former enter prime home-buying age and the latter downsize their houses or move after retirement. Bank of America data suggests Baby Boomers are relocating to Las Vegas and Tampa while Millennials prefer Austin. Both groups are leaving the larger cities of San Francisco and New York.

America on the move

A key theme that shaped the housing market during the pandemic was domestic migration (i.e., people moving within the US). While data from the Census Bureau is broken down by metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), it is only updated annually and can be outdated for real time analysis.

Utilizing aggregated and anonymized Bank of America customer data, we constructed near real-time estimates of domestic migration flows and found that pandemic migration trends are not reversing. Data as of 1Q 2023 suggests that cities that saw a large influx of people during the pandemic have still been growing fasterthan other cities in recent quarters.

“Bank of America data suggests baby boomers are relocating to Las Vegas and Tampa, Florida, while millennials prefer Austin, Texas,” the report noted, adding that both “groups are leaving the larger cities of San Francisco and New York.”

What makes Las Vegas so attractive to boomers? According to a 2023 study by Empower, a financial services company, Las Vegas ranked as the top spot for retirement thanks to its affordability, tax friendliness to retirees, ease of access to health care, and of course, its year-round sunshine.

“Based on our analysis, Las Vegas was the most affordable U.S. city for retirees,” the report’s findings stated. “For those looking for their daily dose of Vitamin D, Sin City ranked second for average yearly sunshine, and proved very tax-friendly, with no state income tax, and no estate or inheritance taxes. Additionally, Las Vegas has a thriving senior community and plenty of entertainment options.”

The only downfall, however, is Las Vegas, like many places around the U.S., is experiencing a significant affordable housing shortage, making it potentially difficult for some retirees to find a necessary cost-of-living balance.

“We need more product,” Lee Barrett, the president of the Las Vegas Realtors, told the Las Vegas Review-Journal in 2023. “What’s kept the values up in the Las Vegas market is that lack of product, so it’s a supply and demand issue.”

If you can’t find housing as a retiree in Vegas, Bank of America’s report noted that two cities in Florida — Tampa and Orlando — are also top choices for baby boomers. And Florida will also be in style for retirees.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/las-vegas_rb/

Padres Contest 2024 Update

The NSDCC listings inputted between January 1-15 are up 11% YoY:

2023: 100

2024: 111

Take last January’s total of 205 listings + 11% = 228 for the projected winning score, which would blow by everyone. How close the monthly total gets to 228 will tell us if listings are surging or calming as the spring selling season opens. Here are the guesses of the number of January listings – winner gets Padres tickets:

Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings

142 Anne M

157 Skip

160 doughboy

170 Dale

174 SurfRider

176 LifeIsRadInCbad

180 Kingside

188 Stephanie R.

189 Chris

190 Tom

192 Sara G.

196 Derek

200 Curtis

208 Rob Dawg

210 Bode

213 Shadash

217 Nick

222 Majeed

223 Joe

Our New RB Listing

12705 Coachman Ct., Poway

3 br + den/2 ba., 1,878sf

YB: 1978

10,000sf lot

No HOA

SP = $1,400,000 – full price! We represented the seller.

Already gorgeous and now thoroughly renovated, this one-story charmer has all the hot buttons – remodeled white kitchen and baths, lighter hardwoods, high ceilings, new roof, solar, walk-in closet, RV parking, no HOA, low-maintenance yard, and walking distance to coffee or church! Secluded on an elevated 10,000sf corner lot with good privacy, this creampuff is enhanced by the easy indoor/outdoor transition that creates multiple entertaining areas! The address says Poway but RB is only a block away so freeway access is excellent. Larger than most of the RB homes nearby, and in great shape – perfect for downsizers!

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/12705-coachman-court-poway-ca-92064/1491452415519165793


Open 12-2pm on Saturday, January 21st!

Our New RB Listing

12705 Coachman Ct., Poway

3 br + den/2 ba., 1,878sf

YB: 1978

10,000sf lot

No HOA

LP = $1,400,000

Already gorgeous and now thoroughly renovated, this one-story charmer has all the hot buttons – remodeled white kitchen and baths, lighter hardwoods, high ceilings, new roof, solar, walk-in closet, RV parking, no HOA, low-maintenance yard, and walking distance to coffee or church! Secluded on an elevated 10,000sf corner lot with good privacy, this creampuff is enhanced by the easy indoor/outdoor transition that creates multiple entertaining areas! The address says Poway but RB is only a block away so freeway access is excellent. Larger than most of the RB homes nearby, and in great shape – perfect for downsizers! Three bedrooms PLUS den!


Open 12-2pm on Saturday, January 21st!

Alec Baldwin Pitches His House For Sale

Why don’t more celebrities do this? They are used to being in front of the camera!

Alec Baldwin’s Hamptons home, first listed for $29 million in September, 2022, has returned to the market at $18.995 million, touting the rarity that the five-acre property in Amagansett’s Estate Section can accommodate two large residences.

https://behindthehedges.com/alec-baldwin-hamptons-property-expansion/

Joe Jackson

Filmed at Paradiso in 2019:

Paradiso is a Dutch music venue and cultural centre located in Amsterdam. Originally a nineteenth-century church used by the “Vrije Gemeente” (Free Congregation), it was squatted by hippies in 1967, seeking to turn it into a leisure club. The city officially opened it as a youth entertainment center in 1968, quickly becoming a focal point for the counterculture movement and associated with the era’s rock music. Paradiso also became one of the first places where soft drug use and sales were tolerated. Over time, it has diversified its programming to include lectures, plays, classical music, and crossover artists. Some of the world’s biggest music acts, including AC/DC, Adele, David Bowie, Madonna, Nirvana, and The Rolling Stones, have performed at Paradiso. Key performances include Pink Floyd’s 1968 concert, Glen Matlock’s last gig with the Sex Pistols in 1977, and The Rolling Stones’ semi-acoustic concerts in 1995, which Keith Richards claimed were the band’s best live shows.

America’s Friendliest

Few of us are clamoring to live where hostility and ill-temper rule the social structure. You don’t hear friends and colleagues looking through real estate ads to find a neighborhood full of discontent and aggression. Instead, people clamor to find real neighborhoods that feel like the friendliest TV towns, such as Stars Hollow, Pawnee, and Schitt’s Creek.

But that made us wonder whether America had any areas that resemble these friendly but fictitious towns and what elements help to create these neighborhoods in real life. So we conducted a study to determine which American cities are the friendliest.

We compiled a list of popular neighborhoods across the United States based on the 200 most-viewed city neighborhoods on Zillow in 2022. Then we analyzed nearly 150K Google reviews from the past year for businesses in those neighborhoods.

From banks and bars to coffee shops and grocery stores, we analyzed the reviews of businesses people regularly visit, using the percentage of reviews with the word “friendly” in them to determine our rankings. This post details what we discovered so you can see how your city measures up.

https://allstarhome.com/resources/friendliest-neighborhoods-in-america/

Del Mar Flip

The MLS has 14 SFR sales under $2,000,000 over the last 12 months in the 92014 – or about one per month. This flip is priced at $2,399,000 now after being on the market for a couple of weeks towards the end of last year for $1,999,999. They paid $1,665,000 in August.

Capital-Gains Tax for Homesellers

Dear Liz: My husband died in November 2022. I was told that if I sell the house within two years of his death, I can benefit from two capital gains exclusions, his and mine, each for $250,000. The house was appraised at $912,000 based on his date of death. I don’t imagine it would sell for much more than that now. Can you tell me approximately what I would owe in capital gains? My tax rate is 24%.

Answer: That’s a great question to ask a tax pro, since there are a number of variables involved.

If you live in a community property state such as California, then both halves of the property got a favorable step-up in tax basis when your husband died. That means the house’s new tax basis would be $912,000.

If you don’t live in a community property state, then only half of the house got the step up at his death (to $456,000, or half of $912,000). The other half — yours — retains its original tax basis. If the original purchase price of the home was $300,000, for example, your basis would be $150,000. The home’s total basis would be $606,000 (which is $456,000 plus $150,000). If you sold the house for $912,000, your capital gain could be $306,000, which would be well below the $500,000 exemption you could take if you sell the house within two years of the death. If you sell after the two-year mark, the gain above your single $250,000 exemption would be taxable.

The rate you would pay depends on your taxable income and what state you live in.

For example, a single person with taxable income of between $47,026 and $518,900 in 2023 would pay a 15% federal capital gains rate, plus whatever rate their state imposes. (California doesn’t have a separate capital gains tax system, so any taxable gain would be subject to the state’s regular income tax.)

These numbers are just to give you an idea of how capital gains taxes work. Your mileage may vary. If you renovated the kitchen or did any other significant improvements on the home, those costs could be added to your tax basis to reduce any potentially taxable gain. Also, selling costs will reduce what you actually pocket from the sale and your potentially taxable gain. For more information, see IRS Publication 523, Selling Your Home.

Taxes shouldn’t be your only consideration, of course. Relocating can be disruptive and expensive. Getting the house sold before the two-year mark makes sense if you were planning to move anyway, but don’t let fear of taxes scare you out of a home that otherwise suits you.

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