More Carlsbad Redevelopment

Numbers talked about in the video:

The site of the Golden Tee apartments was purchased for $23 million. The sellers have the right to make that kind of bank, and the buyers must have done their homework – and their plan of developing 218 apartments must have been within the existing rules. You can’t blame either of them for doing what they did. Blame the rule-makers.

It cost $30 million to build a 50-unit apartment house for homeless veterans, or $600,000 per unit. The City of Carlsbad contributed $8 million of it, yet there is talk of shutting it down after three years. How was that not foreseen as a possibility? Seems like a real boondoggle.

Moving Checklist

Best Tip For Moving – Start Early!

Schedule cancellation of utilities and services. Set up utilities at the new home too, especially the new internet provider!

Tenants on month-to-month need to give 30-day notice. You can give notice any day of the month – you don’t have to wait until the 1st of the month. To get your deposit back, conduct a walk-through inspection with the landlord to identify any changes in the condition of the home and who is responsible. The landlord has 21 days after the tenant vacates to return some or all of the deposit.

Going through your stuff. The biggest obstacle to moving is ‘going through your stuff’, and it is a major undertaking. The time required is relative to how much review of each item is needed, and it can take far longer than expected – days, weeks or months! You can never start too early! Organize everything into three piles: keep, donate, and recycle/trash. P.S. Your kids don’t want anything.

Order moving boxes and start packing. Even if you’re paying movers to pack your stuff (in which case you’ll still have to delegate tasks and oversee things), you will still want to pack some of your personal items. Besides boxes, get other supplies such as tape, Bubble Wrap, and permanent markers too. The moving/packing companies (including rental box companies) also sell packing supplies and can help estimate how much you’ll need.

You can get a specific quote here: https://www.homedepot.com/c/moving-box-calculator

Labeling. Clearly label and number each box with its contents and the room it’s destined for. Keep a separate inventory list, and be sure to label the boxes of essential items you’ll need right away.

Separate valuables. Add items such as jewelry and important files to a safe box that you’ll personally transport to your new home.

Bulky furniture. Moving costs often come down to weight or size, so ask yourself whether you’re ready to invest in an item again just to get it from point A to point B. Before the move, try selling couches, grills, patio furniture, and other big stuff that’s usable but not worth bringing along. You should check your furniture for dent and scratches before the moving company starts loading so you know if the moved furniture got dinged during the process.

Take photos. Photograph every room for easy memory later of what you have and where it went. It is especially helpful with setting up electronics.

Hire a moving company. There are many scams, so if it sounds too good to be true, it is. Some advertisers are merely brokers who agree to a low fee and then hire third-party movers. When they show up on your day of moving, the actual movers insist on re-negotiating the fee. Check the reviews and referrals from past customers! For interstate moves, the moving company should be licensed with a U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) number – search for it here. Keep your agreement handy on the day of moving.

Portable Containers. You can also rent a portable container and load it yourself, or you can hire a team to load it for you. This is an especially good option if you prefer loading a portable container slowly over a few weeks (make sure you have a very good lock and a secure spot to place the container, like a driveway). Many offer storage options at one of its facilities, so this is a solid storage alternative if you won’t be moving to the new place immediately.

Arrange for storage in your new community (if necessary). Your new home could be under renovations or there could be waiting period before you can take complete possession. Lease space in advance for short term storage of your heavy appliances or other valuable equipment.

Pack your personal essentials. Make sure to keep everyday essentials – including things like clothes, medication, and toiletries – separate and easily accessible. Packing your personal items in a suitcase will help set them apart. And if you choose to spend the night of your move in a hotel, rather than in the new location, they’ll be easier to transport.

Send notice of your new address. Changing your address may be a “before” or “after” item on your to-do list, depending on when you have access to your new place. Here are the places you should remember to notify when you’re changing your address: USPS, voter registration, doctors, credit-card companies, DMV, social-security office, employer, Amazon (or other stores that deliver to you), insurance companies, and friends & family.

Leaving town? Go for doctor check-ups, tune up your car, empty the safe-deposit box, refill prescriptions and say goodbye to old friends.

Treat yourself. At this point, all of your kitchen gear should be packed away, and all of your groceries will basically be consumed. Now is the time to get one last meal at your favorite neighborhood restaurant with friends or perhaps have a little glass of bubbly for the occasion. Even if you’ve followed all these instructions and are totally prepared, let’s face it – moving is a huge undertaking and one of the most stressful events in a person’s life. Do something relaxing, such as taking a quiet walk, meditating, or whatever else will calm your mind.

The Kids. Your kids will be going through their own stress about leaving their friends and comforts of home, plus the unknown ahead. Keep them involved with the process!

Don’t schedule anything for the day of the move. If you have kids or pets, consider sending them off with sitters for the day. And to be sure things are done the way you want, you or a trusted representative should be on hand (and are often required to be) to oversee the move, at both your old home and your new one.

Get cash. Tipping is not a requirement, but professional movers work hard, and many get paid just a little over minimum wage. The right thing to do is tip—roughly 15% to 20% of the total cost of the move—and in cash. If you can, try to tip each mover individually. If your friends are the only ones assisting with the move, you’ll still need some cash to tip the pizza-delivery person later.

Cleaning the old place. Give yourself a break –  hire a pro to do a deep cleaning once you’re gone; it will likely lower your stress. This is also the time to spackle over any nail holes in walls and repair tiny damages. Use the thicker contractor clean-up bags.

Return your keys. In the rush and chaos of a move, it’s easy to forget one final step: returning keys. Be sure to return them to your landlord (though this will typically happen when you do a final walk-through). Or coordinate with your real estate agent on how to hand keys and clickers over to the new owners/realtors.

Travel Kit. Set aside a kit for specialty items, like toilet paper, paper towels, plastic cutlery, scissors, garbage bags, phone chargers, pet food, and snacks for you and the kids.

Contact us for more tips and vendors!

County Tax Sale

The San Diego County annual tax sale is coming up on March 17th – St. Patrick’s Day!

The house above is the most expensive on the list, and would be a deal if you can snag it. Hard to believe how they could rack up a million dollars in back taxes on a house with no mortgages, but I guess it’s possible. These are usually the ones that get redeemed prior to the auction, and/or investors are knocking doors in advance to make deals:

Here’s another one. The house with no mortgages on record was quitclaimed to the owner in 2007 but the tax amount is relatively low, given it zillows for more than a million dollars:

They only require a $1,000 deposit to play, and it’s all online! Luck of the Irish to you!

https://sdttc.mytaxsale.com/auction/45

Move to Baja

Gary came to the open house last weekend and suggested Rosarito Beach as a possible destination for San Diegans. He has checked it out carefully and likes the prospects.

I wasn’t aware until Gary mentioned it that the border has a fast-track lane so you don’t have to wait for hours to cross. I think this is it:

https://www.cbp.gov/travel/clearing-customs/ready-lanes

I don’t know the ladies in the video above but it’s informative.

Europe is an interesting choice too:

https://www.veranda.com/travel/g63937607/european-countries-will-give-you-citizenship-residency-for-buying-property/

CCP & Rapid Deceleration

Rob did a blog post (behind the paywall but consider subscribing if you’re interested in residential real estate selling trends) where he thinks the Clear Cooperation Policy is cooked. Even though most of the big players are supportive of the policy in public, it’s just a matter of time before it collapses.

A reader noted that eXp has been publicly advertising their Private Exclusives since 2023:

https://life.exprealty.com/exp-access-off-market-listings/

All the other big brokerages are doing private exclusives too, or prepared to do it. Rob thinks that more brokerages will be forced to publicly offer their private exclusives just to retain their big agent teams….who might be lured to join Compass if they don’t.

I’d like to take it a step further.

Let’s factor in the market conditions.

It is very likely that the the real estate market will turn sluggish shortly. Yes, I know we got a reprieve this week with mortgage rates and you might be able to get into the low-6% range by paying a point or two. But it won’t change the course we’re on.

The inventory of homes for sale is growing everywhere in America. But sales aren’t growing.

By summer there will be a glut of homes for sale.

Sellers will be motivated to lower their price substantially to get out, and/or buyers will lowball them substantially. Either way, the glut will keep growing because sellers and agents are totally unprepared for such conditions and sales will falter.

The older realtors have to been inching closer to retirement every day, and even if they still have a box of business cards, do they have the chops for a slow market? It’s been 10+ years since we’ve had anything besides a roaring seller’s market – does anyone remember what to do?

I doubt it.

It will cause the Big Pause.

Sellers aren’t going to give it away, so they will wait.

Agents won’t know what to do, so they will wait.

Buyers are comfortable on the fence, so they will wait.

It will bring more seasonality to the market. The second half of every year will be sluggish and boring, especially around the holidays when everyone agrees that with all the inaction, they might as well take a couple of months off.

The spring selling season will start earlier, which has already been the trend here over the last three years. The buyers are back out in January, loaded with hope. But picky as ever. A few hundred buyers land an acceptable deal while the rest wait comfortably.

I hope you can deal with that!

The brokerages will be in panic mode and NAR might as well quit now while they are behind. With no other alternatives, everyone will adopt the privates exclusives as a last-ditch solution to stay afloat.

There should be major consolidation among brokerages – but Compass isn’t going to buy everyone! The realtor population should decline rapidly, and the rest will adapt to the new world of no MLS and private exclusives. We will be just like the commercial brokers.

And it’s going to come on us fast – probably by the end of 2025. The ingredients are all there!

Slime All Around

The real estate industry gets accused of its slimy tactics quite frequently, and it is well deserved – you really should Get Good Help!

In a last-ditch effort to survive, the red team went into the rental business recently. Here they have been publishing a ‘corporate rental’ that has been fed to them by Rently – who has ‘refreshed’ their listing a couple of times:

So then this real estate broker and mortgage licensee from the Bay Area comes along and steals the photos and advertises 4100 El Arbol (not 5100) on this slimy ‘national MLS‘ at a ridiculously low for-sale price (about HALF of the actual value).

The Z team – no stranger to the real estate slime – picks up their feed and is now advertising it publicly:

Hat tip to realtor Tanya who alerted me to this fraud! She contacted them yesterday to report it and was told that they would remove it right away. But as of this morning, it is still an active listing:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4100-El-Arbol-Dr-Carlsbad-CA-92008/447767066_zpid/

Why would a long-time real estate broker from San Jose bother to devise this concoction? He must be selling leads to realtors – another slimy part of the business. I get 2-3 solicitations every day from people who want to give me leads and all I have to do is cut them in on the commission (I ignore them).

Here’s an example:

Here’s how it turned out (plus cases against Capital One and a Berkshire-owned mortgage company):

https://apnews.com/article/cfpb-drops-capital-one-rocket-lawsuits-e3a4a18ccd9ddd97610ef23fd6b843b2

The slime is all around – Get Good Help!

ADUs and HOAs

Government entities have to permit you to build an ADU, but what about an HOA? Hat tip to ‘just some guy’ for sending in this article about the ADU dispute at the Carlsbad condo complex called Mystic Point (where we just sold a view condo for $960,000).

An excerpt:

Adam Flury, an attorney hired by the association, advised the board in an email to “absolutely deny” the request as a violation of the board’s governing documents. Hardesty responded, politely but firmly, that he would be moving ahead anyway. “Rest assured, this is coming down the pike and I would love for you all to participate in this project with me,” he wrote in an email.

Two weeks later he received a cease-and-desist letter. It warned Hardesty that he ran the risk of exposing himself “to legal consequences and unnecessary expense” if he didn’t let up.

The Mystic Point ADU dispute is “ripe for litigation,” said Marco Gonzalez, an environmental and land use lawyer whom Hardesty hired to respond to the HOA’s cease and desist letter. “But you gotta have a homeowner with deep enough pockets and the risk profile to take it to the mat.”

Hardesty, who is still without a steady job and claims to have already spent upward of $8,000 of his savings on the project, said he didn’t have deep enough pockets to keep paying Gonzalez.

For now, he is focused on construction. This month, he broke ground and began gutting his garage — without the HOA’s permission or apparent knowledge.

https://calmatters.org/housing/2025/02/hoa-adu-california-law/

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, December

The Case-Shiller Index is such old news that I forgot all about it yesterday.

It looks like “pricing” started to flatten out earlier last year, which sets up the 1Q25 for small-ish gains:

In more-relevant news…..this date, February 26th, fell on a Monday in 2024. It allows us to compare the inventory on the same dates:

NSDCC Active Listings:

2024: 324

2025: 368 (+14%)

There are also 30 more in the Coming Soon bin, plus private exclusives at all brokerages. If we just add the Coming Soons to this year’s count, the YoY change is +23%.

The surge in listings is underway, but it’s just not that obvious yet. Stay tuned, and don’t be surprised if pricing is hot early, then flattens out by March or April.

Professional Sales

Have you ever attended an open house and the realtor asked if you wanted to buy it?

Probably not. Yet, isn’t that our job?

I am a salesman and this is what I do. I make a simple statement when you arrive that sets the tone – AND can’t help but put a smile on your face, only because it’s the first time anyone has ever said it to you.

Why do people laugh? Because they see or hear something unexpected. At my open houses, everyone starts with a chuckle.

When leaving, I ask the most obvious question ever – yet you’ve never heard it before at any open house.

Don’t you want a professional salesman in your corner?

Hire me! I’m Jim the Realtor 858-997-3801 Jim Klinge @Compass DRE #00873197

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