Can we find some positivity in today’s market? Are we about to turn the corner?
There is enough doom out there that even our head cheerleader is grumpy.
But there are reasons to be hopeful.
The tariff talk seems to be settling down, and Trump should start making deals.
The 10-year yield is settling down too, which should help mortgage rates:
The stock market has bounced back a bit, and appears stable for now.
Home sellers should be getting the message by now, and will adjust pricing.
Yesterday we received offers on two of our listings, after blanking for the month!
If we can just get a run going for 30-60 days before the tariff deadline gets here in July, it would establish some price discovery and motivate buyers to make offers.
San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted
In 2024, the big action was in the first quarter, and it cooled off quickly after that.
The index rose 8.4% in the first five months, then gave back 3.1% the rest of the way. It looks like we’ll be lucky to hit half of that 8.4% gain in the early months of 2025, and probably give it all back by 2026.
Welcome to Flat City.
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“Even with mortgage rates remaining in the mid-6% range and affordability challenges lingering, home prices have shown notable resilience,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Buyer demand has certainly cooled compared to the frenzied pace of prior years, but limited housing supply continues to underpin prices in most markets. Rather than broad declines, we are seeing a slower, more sustainable pace of price growth.”
There are 501 active listings today between La Jolla and Carlsbad.
The number of homes for sale in every price category are at their highest levels of the year, with the Under-$2,000,000 category rising from 59 to 74 actives (+20%) in the last week.
The high point in 2022 was 480 actives, and we hit 430 actives in 2023 (both in July). Last year, there were two weeks in July that had 500+ actives.
This year, it appears we will have several months of 500+. Through August?
It’s a buying opportunity for those who have the guts and are willing to dig out an acceptable deal.
It will take more work than usual – additional frog-kissing will be involved!
Trump is urging Powell to lower rates, and the Fed chief is going to cave.
Powell will lower the rates.
I guarantee it.
He’s going to lower his Fed rate by 1/4%, and say, “There you go!”
This is 2025, and we’re in Flat City. There is no help coming.
Homes for sale are priced at yesterday’s comps, plus a little mustard. The few that are attractively priced get lost in the shuffle because the buyers assume EVERY house is over-priced. Yet sellers keep waiting for that nuclear family with 2.2 kids to come along and pay all the money.
They aren’t coming, and there’s no relief in sight.
Unfortunately, these conditions will force most to the sidelines.
Casual buyers will wait for the mythical moment in the future when all the stars will align (that’s not coming either), and sellers will want to wait until “the market gets better” – which ain’t happening anytime soon. But inaction is an easier choice for both of them to digest.
If you want to move this year, then you need to create your own solutions.
Whether you are a buyer or seller (or both), there is one solid compromise that helps both sides:
The mortgage-rate buydown.
Sellers should offer to buy down the rate, rather than lower their price.
Neither the buyer nor the seller should believe that lowering the price will make much difference. In the second line above, the $100,000 price reduction only gave the buyer a $200 per month discount. Big whoop.
Buyers need to make a formal offer to the seller that says,
“If you can save me $500 per month, I’ll buy your house”, or
“If you can save me $1,000 per month, I’ll buy your house”.
If the seller is already offering to buydown the rate, then they already expect to pay out – it’s just a matter of how much.
If they only have to pay $45,000 to make the deal on a $2M sale, then they should strongly consider it. It’s also worth considering the $145,000 discount if needed, unless they think there might be two in the bush.
But this is the critical part:
The seller must offer the buydown up front just to send notice to the buyers that they will consider it. The buyers must make a written offer to see what they might actually get.
Homeowners put a lot of faith into their zestimate.
They’ve been receiving their monthly updates for years and years now, and it’s like an old friend.
It’s been so long that they forgot the doubt and mistrust of the zestimates in the beginning, and now figure their old friend wouldn’t let them down. Especially when they check active listings and the zestimates are always within a couple of bucks of the list price.
It doesn’t occur to them that Zillow might be lying to them, and adjusting zestimates to be near the list price once a home goes on the market. Nooooo, instead they want to think that the zestimates must be getting more accurate!
Now the doubt and mistrust shifts to the agent when they deliver the real value. If the broker’s opinion of value is less than their zestimate, it’s the realtor who is wrong….obviously!
In a stable-to-declining market, this is real estate poison, and a main reason why listings will sit forever without selling. The homeowners are convinced that their price is right, mostly because their old friend said so.
The number of actives and pendings were already fighting to stay in line with last year, but look at the changes that began in April.
Has the selling season ended prematurely, and it will feel like the off-season for the rest of the year? Looks like it.
I’ve already had people wonder out loud if they should wait until next year. It won’t be better next year.
The market sluggishness will stay like this until there is a meaningful change in rates and/or prices, which could take years. Home sellers will be faced with a choice. Take less now, or take less later.
Check out this fine-looking one-story with incredible succulent backyard!
5119 Berryessa Street, Shadowridge
3 br + den / 2 ba, 2,270sf
10,459sf lot
HOA = $92/mo.
SP = $1,260,000 – we represented the sellers.
Are you searching for a roomy one-story with 3-car garage on a large private lot? This is it! Our recent tune-up makes it move-in ready too. New carpet & paint, hardwoods, chef’s kitchen, high ceilings, remodeled bathrooms, and a calm ocean breeze every afternoon – wow! The 10,459sf lot is very low maintenance and the backyard is a botanical garden full of specialty succulents – it’s a must see!
The first Compass goal was to have 20% market share in 20 major metro markets, and now we’re striving to have 30% market share in 30 markets.
Locally, we’re getting close.
The market has been tough on everyone, mostly because buyers aren’t going for it like they were during the covid frenzy. Agents need to be really good now, and that’s why the top brokerages should be picking up additional market share in the coming months.
Compass spent $100,000,000+ on our platform to support agents, and it’s really good. It also makes for a fantastic recruiting tool, and it’s going to be hard for the smaller brokerages to keep up.
But the business of selling homes is an individual sport – and you still need to hire the right agent. Check their track record on Zillow to see how successful they have been recently at getting people to the finish line!
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim & Donna Klinge helped us sell our home of 30 years in Ocean Hills. We were very happy with their service and would HIGHLY recommend them to anyone looking for an Honest, Knowledgeable, Skilled, Informed Efficient realty team. Both Jim & Donna were so helpful in different ways and complemented each others skills. Please refer to a more detailed review that we wrote on YELP. Thank You Both for all your help!!!
Jesse O'Hara
June 12, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
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Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
