Since October, I've been warning about a surge of inventory coming in 2025. It won't be that obvious to the casual observers, and many won't notice at all. Even the early statistics and/or the actual transacting may mask it somewhat because, who knows? There might be...
My predicted surge in inventory is underway - look at the navy-blue line above. There are 363 active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad today, and once the Super Bowl is out of the way, we should really get rocking. It should easily reach 400 before the end of the...
It never occurs to the experts that higher prices have something to do with the locked-in effect, and that home sellers have to move to where it's much cheaper to make it worth moving. For those who pay cash for their next home, having a 3% mortgage didn't keep them...
Ok, we're rolling now! There are 337 NSDCC active listings today. We didn't hit that number until mid-March last year, and in 2023 we didn't reach that many until mid-May! The number of pendings did rebound but they are still under where they were in the last two...
The number of homes for sale has already exceeded the counts for the same time in 2023 and 2024, and the number of pendings is lower than the previous two years too. The pendings' count has dipped 10% since the start of the year, but it did the same thing last year...
The pendings line is barely noticeable on the graph above because it mirrors the 2024 line closely. The number of pendings dropped because so many sales are closing - there have already been 43 NSDCC closed sales in January, and we should exceed last January's count...
On December 9th, there were 401 active listings bertween La Jolla and Carlsbad. Today there are 298 actives. It would be natural to think that the reason the count dropped so much was that sellers were cancelling their listings in preparation for a new approach in...
Virtually everyone is reluctant to predict the future of the real estate market. Even most realtors will throw their hands up and declare, "Who knows?". But around here, one fact has been clear and it tells us what we need to know about the rest of the year. The...
In 2024, we had more drama than usual. The Big Three: Hotly-contested election. Commission debacle. Mortgage rates that were supposed to come down, but didn't. Any one of those could have derailed the real estate market, but instead we survived just fine: NSDCC Annual...
We're going to start the new year with about 17% more houses for sale than we did in 2024. They will be joined by other failed listings from the past, and the inventory will most likely be rising faster than normal. The first inventory count of 2024 was 255 homes for...
