by Jim the Realtor | Oct 12, 2014 | Foreclosures/REOs, REO Inventory, REO Pre-Listings, Short Sales, Short Selling |
I hope the headline porn grabbed you! 😆
REO listings have increased lately around NSDCC, though they are still a small fraction of the overall marketplace (there have been 2,238 detached-home sales closed this year between Carlsbad and La Jolla).
The short-sale listings coming to market haven’t changed much all year, which would be the first place you would see the effect of mortgage servicers getting tougher with deadbeats:
| Type of Listing |
Jan 1 – June 30 |
July 1 – present |
| REO |
4 |
8 |
| Short-sale |
36 |
18 |
| Non-Distressed |
2,672 |
1,262 |
| Total |
2,712 |
1,388 |
This guy borrowed $3.75 million to do a spectacular remodel on this Del Mar home (the house with the glass-bottom pool), but he wasn’t going to give it away. The original list price was $6,750,000 in October, 2013, and dropped to $5,950,000 before getting foreclosed in June. The bank promptly listed for $5,495,000, and sold it for $5,210,000 last month:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-140036477-116_Nob_Ave_Del_Mar_CA_92014
There is some hope that lenders and servicers are increasing the flow now that prices are so much higher than before, and it would make sense that they would cherry-pick the properties on which they could make a profit.
But no flood of notices yet:
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 22, 2014 | Foreclosure Count, Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs, Jim's Take on the Market |
Reader elbarcosr noted that the latest default list was the longest in recent memory, and wondered if the foreclosure market might be coming back to life.
Let’s hope so!
If the NAR would have been looking out for realtors, they would have insisted that the foreclosure process be allowed to run its course, and clear the market. Instead, they lobbied for foreclosure-rescue programs from the government, and now we have a mushy unknown distressed market – again.
Auction.com is one of the culprits, and we just don’t know what to expect from them, other than mis-direction. Back in June, we saw them try to auction a tenant-occupied home that Chase has owned since 2011:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/06/09/reo-auction-contest-results/
It never closed escrow, and has never been on the MLS – instead, it’s another bank-owned property sent to foreclosure purgatory.
Auction.com is also known for conducting price discovery for NationStar on their short sales. Auction.com will market the home and conduct online bidding even though the seller has a written contract with a buyer. Nationstar has a right to sell their short sales for top dollar, and this process helps to expose any shady dealings by the listing agent, but it doesn’t help the reputation of Auction.com.
Though auction.com is the most visible player in the foreclosure market, we can’t judge the trend by their advertising. What matters most is whether the lenders and servicers are going to liquidate any remaining defaulted properties, especially now that prices are up?
Has Nationstar or other servicers been ramping up production in light of the higher prices? Not really – here are the notices issued over the last 12 months in San Diego County:
The foreclosure market has been rife with speculation and intrigue, but we always seem to end up with a nothing-burger. But I’m giving it another chance – I signed up to be a Zillow foreclosure specialist, figuring it can only get better from here. 😆
I’ll be on flood watch!
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 27, 2014 | Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs, Jim's Take on the Market, No-Foreclosure as Banking Policy |
This guy only sees negative in the real estate world. He called me once trying to get me to bash the market, and when I refused, he hung up. Even today he is still ranting:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-house-market-is-falling-apart-2014-08-26
Real estate analyst Keith Jurow, author of the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is warning that the real estate market is not as strong as it seems.
Says Jurow: “I never bought into the idea that we had a recovery at all.” His research leads him to conclude that home prices will be heading lower.
His research? Because the Case-Shiller Index is still rising, just not as fast – that means prices will be heading lower? There are plenty of reasons you could use to justify the doomer position (wars, unemployment, unaffordability, earthquakes, etc.), but smaller increases are a weak excuse.
He also thinks we will still have a surge of foreclosed properties to come, just because their are so many people delinquent. But once you miss a few payments and ruin your credit, the delinquent homeowners might as well ride it out until they get the boot.
How are the San Diego foreclosures?
Some said they dropped off because of the Homeowners Bill of Rights, which was released two years ago and became law on January 1, 2013. The bansk have had plenty of time to adjust – here’s how they are doing:
It’s hard to believe that people just go back to making their payments, whether they get a loan mod or not. The banks will wait until they can make money by foreclosing, which around the coastal markets, should be after another 10% appreciation or so. Until then, why foreclose and lose money?
by Jim the Realtor | May 30, 2014 | Foreclosure Count, Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs, No-Foreclosure as Banking Policy |
The decline in foreclosures continues, but the pundits and media don’t really look into it much further. Here is the best quote they could come up with in this article, linked below (hat tip to Stormin’):
“We have now registered two and a half years of continuous decreases in the number of homeowners who are in some stage of the foreclosure process. This consistent decline means fewer Americans are experiencing the distress of delinquency and default,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.
http://dsnews.com/foreclosure-inventory-continues-decline-april/
The foreclosure notices and the number of properties actually foreclosed have dropped considerably in San Diego County.
We have had 1,500 to 2,207 notices sent out per quarter over the last 12 months, but only 450-610 properties foreclosed per quarter. The big gap makes you think that the banks/servicers are still throwing loan mods at anyone who wants one, and cancelling any notices soon thereafter.
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 17, 2014 | Foreclosures/REOs, No-Foreclosure as Banking Policy, Short Sales, Short Selling |
From RealtyTrac:
http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q1-2014-home-equity-and-underwater-report-8037
“The relatively high percentage of foreclosures with equity is surprising to many because it would seem homeowners with equity could easily avoid foreclosure by leveraging that equity by refinancing or with an equity sale of the home,” Blomquist noted.
No surprise here.
With no pressure from anyone to foreclose on non-payers, mortgage servicers can be picky about who gets foreclosed. It makes sense to foreclose where you can make a profit, and let the still-underwater folks ride the gravy train for another year or two.
Deadbeats don’t need to panic, it’s still quiet around SD County:
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 5, 2014 | Foreclosures/REOs, REO Inventory, Shadow Inventory, Short Sales, Short Selling
After seeing Bernanke holding the smoking gun on Monday (where he said that he told banks to not disrupt the economy with their REOs), did you give up hope getting a deal on a distressed sale?
If not, this might push you closer to believing.
Here is the mix of NSDCC detached listings this year:
REOs: 1
Short-sales: 10
Non-distressed: 825
REO listing agents, flippers, and short-sale scammers have to be scrambling. Keep your head down!
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 3, 2014 | Foreclosures/REOs, Jim's Take on the Market, No-Foreclosure as Banking Policy |
Having over eight years’ worth of blog posts means all types of kooky things happen regularly – usually regarding comments left on old stories.
Yesterday’s comment-du-jour went back to June, 2011, which caused me to read a few other comments of the day.
Reader LM left this:
Bernanke live press conf: We have told the banks to handle their REOs…..long pause………..in an economy-supportive way.
Oops. We he was GOING to say was “we have told the banks not to flood the market with REOs.”
Here is the link to the actual speech, with Bernanke’s quote on the last page:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/full-transcript-ben-bernankes-i-have-no-idea-why-economy-will-get-better-it-will-speech-and-
Let’s look back at the foreclosure history beginning in 2011. Sure enough, LM called it – foreclosures in California dropped off the table:
Thanks Uncle Ben – and rots of ruck to you!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 15, 2014 | CA Homeowners Bill of Rights, Foreclosures/REOs, No-Foreclosure as Banking Policy |
The hedgies got fired up this week over RealtyTrac’s report of California foreclosures rising 57% last month – the post is featured at the top of their front page, and has great comments: www.zerohedge.com.
At first glance, it would support my theory that banks deliberately turned off the foreclosure machine, and have merely started it up again:
Foreclosureradar.com’s California graph shows the same Y-O-Y increase:
But the CA Homeowners’ Bill of Rights had just been implemented in January, 2013, causing a drop in notices issued while servicers made adjustments. Last month’s number of California foreclosure notices is similar to every month since January 2013.
For locals, here are the San Diego County notices:
It’s likely that the banks/servicers have thrown every defaulter into some sort of loan modification – or if they didn’t fit, just let them lie. With a casual handling of defaulters, expect that borrowers will drift in and out of the foreclosure process as they enjoy a pay-if-you-feel-like-it policy.
Expect the foreclosure-notice data to be jumbled from now on, and not indictative of much really. What counts is the number of people actually getting foreclosed – here are the San Diego results of trustee sales for the last three years:
The number of properties actually foreclosed has dropped off the table in the last 12 months – in 4Q13 we averaged 150 foreclosed homes per month in a county of 3 million people. We will survive that – heck, in the previous fourth quarter (4Q12) we had triple the number of foreclosed properties, and the market took off in a frenzy!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 14, 2013 | Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs |
Remember Dan Bailey? Here is a follow-up from latimes.com:
Daniel A. Bailey Jr. isn’t your average homeowner. He hasn’t paid his mortgage in more than five years, and has no plans to start now.
His stance stems from a bizarre incident that thrust Bailey into the news in 2008, when he suddenly became a public relations liability for embattled home lender Countrywide Financial of Calabasas.
Bailey had blanketed Countrywide with emails begging for a mortgage modification. The reply came from none other than Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide’s chief executive, who accidentally hit “reply” instead of “forward” on a note meant for colleagues. In the misfired missive, Mozilo called Bailey’s letter a “disgusting” and “unbelievable” example of the form letters then inundating the lender from borrowers saying they couldn’t pay.
The email:
“This is unbelievable. Most of these letters now have the same wording. Obviously they are being counseled by some other person or by the internet. Disgusting.”–Countrywide Financial founder, chairman and chief executive Angelo Mozilo
Bailey insists that Bank of America is obligated to honor an agreement that Countrywide’s damage-control squad struck to silence him — a verbal deal he says entitles him to live for free in the two-bedroom, 938-square-foot bungalow he’s called home for 21 years.
Bailey, a struggling photographer, said he struck his deal with a Countrywide executive he knew as Ms. Morgan. She told him he could stop paying his mortgage, but only if he signed off on a loan modification within 24 hours and kept quiet about Mozilo and his errant email.
Read the full article here:
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-live-for-free-20131214,0,4150658.story#ixzz2nTDr1qf6
The whole story from 2008, including the form letter Bailey used from loansafe.org, an internet coaching service for troubled borrowers:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2008/05/22/countrywides-mozilo-calls-borrowers-plea-disgusting/
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 2, 2013 | Foreclosures/REOs |
From the latimes.com – an excerpt:
Pro Teck Valuation Services, a national appraisal firm in Waltham, Mass., recently completed research in 30 major metropolitan areas that dramatically illustrates the point. All of the fastest-rebounding markets in October — those with strong sales, price increases and low inventories of unsold houses — were located in so-called nonjudicial states, where foreclosures can proceed without the intervention of courts.
All the worst-performing markets — where prices and sales have been less robust and there are excessive numbers of houses available but unsold — were located in judicial states, where post-default proceedings can stall foreclosure completions for two to three years or even more in some cases.
Among the best-performing areas were California markets such as Los Angeles and San Diego. California is a nonjudicial state. Among the worst performers were Florida markets such as Tampa and Fort Myers, as well as parts of Illinois and Wisconsin. All of these are judicial states.
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-harney-20131201,0,7128552.story#ixzz2mKE1HdIx
