This guy only sees negative in the real estate world. He called me once trying to get me to bash the market, and when I refused, he hung up. Even today he is still ranting:
Real estate analyst Keith Jurow, author of the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is warning that the real estate market is not as strong as it seems.
Says Jurow: “I never bought into the idea that we had a recovery at all.” His research leads him to conclude that home prices will be heading lower.
His research? Because the Case-Shiller Index is still rising, just not as fast – that means prices will be heading lower? There are plenty of reasons you could use to justify the doomer position (wars, unemployment, unaffordability, earthquakes, etc.), but smaller increases are a weak excuse.
He also thinks we will still have a surge of foreclosed properties to come, just because their are so many people delinquent. But once you miss a few payments and ruin your credit, the delinquent homeowners might as well ride it out until they get the boot.
How are the San Diego foreclosures?
Some said they dropped off because of the Homeowners Bill of Rights, which was released two years ago and became law on January 1, 2013. The bansk have had plenty of time to adjust – here’s how they are doing:
It’s hard to believe that people just go back to making their payments, whether they get a loan mod or not. The banks will wait until they can make money by foreclosing, which around the coastal markets, should be after another 10% appreciation or so. Until then, why foreclose and lose money?