by Jim the Realtor | Sep 22, 2014 | Foreclosure Count, Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs, Jim's Take on the Market |
Reader elbarcosr noted that the latest default list was the longest in recent memory, and wondered if the foreclosure market might be coming back to life.
Let’s hope so!
If the NAR would have been looking out for realtors, they would have insisted that the foreclosure process be allowed to run its course, and clear the market. Instead, they lobbied for foreclosure-rescue programs from the government, and now we have a mushy unknown distressed market – again.
Auction.com is one of the culprits, and we just don’t know what to expect from them, other than mis-direction. Back in June, we saw them try to auction a tenant-occupied home that Chase has owned since 2011:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/06/09/reo-auction-contest-results/
It never closed escrow, and has never been on the MLS – instead, it’s another bank-owned property sent to foreclosure purgatory.
Auction.com is also known for conducting price discovery for NationStar on their short sales. Auction.com will market the home and conduct online bidding even though the seller has a written contract with a buyer. Nationstar has a right to sell their short sales for top dollar, and this process helps to expose any shady dealings by the listing agent, but it doesn’t help the reputation of Auction.com.
Though auction.com is the most visible player in the foreclosure market, we can’t judge the trend by their advertising. What matters most is whether the lenders and servicers are going to liquidate any remaining defaulted properties, especially now that prices are up?
Has Nationstar or other servicers been ramping up production in light of the higher prices? Not really – here are the notices issued over the last 12 months in San Diego County:
The foreclosure market has been rife with speculation and intrigue, but we always seem to end up with a nothing-burger. But I’m giving it another chance – I signed up to be a Zillow foreclosure specialist, figuring it can only get better from here. 😆
I’ll be on flood watch!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 4, 2014 | Foreclosures, Short Sales, Short Selling
Yesterday I saw a for-sale sign in front of an upcoming REO listing. It made me wonder, “How many REO and short-sale listings of detached-homes have we had this year around NSDCC? Here are the counts:
REO: 5
Short Sales: 43
Non-distressed: 3,516
There’s not much chance of finding a deal these days!
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Here is the update on the Mortgage-Debt Tax Relief:
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 27, 2014 | Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs, Jim's Take on the Market, No-Foreclosure as Banking Policy |
This guy only sees negative in the real estate world. He called me once trying to get me to bash the market, and when I refused, he hung up. Even today he is still ranting:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-house-market-is-falling-apart-2014-08-26
Real estate analyst Keith Jurow, author of the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is warning that the real estate market is not as strong as it seems.
Says Jurow: “I never bought into the idea that we had a recovery at all.” His research leads him to conclude that home prices will be heading lower.
His research? Because the Case-Shiller Index is still rising, just not as fast – that means prices will be heading lower? There are plenty of reasons you could use to justify the doomer position (wars, unemployment, unaffordability, earthquakes, etc.), but smaller increases are a weak excuse.
He also thinks we will still have a surge of foreclosed properties to come, just because their are so many people delinquent. But once you miss a few payments and ruin your credit, the delinquent homeowners might as well ride it out until they get the boot.
How are the San Diego foreclosures?
Some said they dropped off because of the Homeowners Bill of Rights, which was released two years ago and became law on January 1, 2013. The bansk have had plenty of time to adjust – here’s how they are doing:
It’s hard to believe that people just go back to making their payments, whether they get a loan mod or not. The banks will wait until they can make money by foreclosing, which around the coastal markets, should be after another 10% appreciation or so. Until then, why foreclose and lose money?
by Jim the Realtor | May 30, 2014 | Foreclosure Count, Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs, No-Foreclosure as Banking Policy |
The decline in foreclosures continues, but the pundits and media don’t really look into it much further. Here is the best quote they could come up with in this article, linked below (hat tip to Stormin’):
“We have now registered two and a half years of continuous decreases in the number of homeowners who are in some stage of the foreclosure process. This consistent decline means fewer Americans are experiencing the distress of delinquency and default,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.
http://dsnews.com/foreclosure-inventory-continues-decline-april/
The foreclosure notices and the number of properties actually foreclosed have dropped considerably in San Diego County.
We have had 1,500 to 2,207 notices sent out per quarter over the last 12 months, but only 450-610 properties foreclosed per quarter. The big gap makes you think that the banks/servicers are still throwing loan mods at anyone who wants one, and cancelling any notices soon thereafter.
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 14, 2013 | Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs |
Remember Dan Bailey? Here is a follow-up from latimes.com:
Daniel A. Bailey Jr. isn’t your average homeowner. He hasn’t paid his mortgage in more than five years, and has no plans to start now.
His stance stems from a bizarre incident that thrust Bailey into the news in 2008, when he suddenly became a public relations liability for embattled home lender Countrywide Financial of Calabasas.
Bailey had blanketed Countrywide with emails begging for a mortgage modification. The reply came from none other than Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide’s chief executive, who accidentally hit “reply” instead of “forward” on a note meant for colleagues. In the misfired missive, Mozilo called Bailey’s letter a “disgusting” and “unbelievable” example of the form letters then inundating the lender from borrowers saying they couldn’t pay.
The email:
“This is unbelievable. Most of these letters now have the same wording. Obviously they are being counseled by some other person or by the internet. Disgusting.”–Countrywide Financial founder, chairman and chief executive Angelo Mozilo
Bailey insists that Bank of America is obligated to honor an agreement that Countrywide’s damage-control squad struck to silence him — a verbal deal he says entitles him to live for free in the two-bedroom, 938-square-foot bungalow he’s called home for 21 years.
Bailey, a struggling photographer, said he struck his deal with a Countrywide executive he knew as Ms. Morgan. She told him he could stop paying his mortgage, but only if he signed off on a loan modification within 24 hours and kept quiet about Mozilo and his errant email.
Read the full article here:
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-live-for-free-20131214,0,4150658.story#ixzz2nTDr1qf6
The whole story from 2008, including the form letter Bailey used from loansafe.org, an internet coaching service for troubled borrowers:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2008/05/22/countrywides-mozilo-calls-borrowers-plea-disgusting/
by Jim the Realtor | Nov 3, 2013 | Bubbleinfo TV, Foreclosures |
My mother is still catching up with my video history of the bubble, and the foreclosure era. Here are some clips from early 2009:
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 4, 2013 | Foreclosures, Local Government, Short Sales, Short Selling |
From the California Association of Realtors:
LOS ANGELES (Sept. 3) – Thanks to partisan political gamesmanship by the Assembly Appropriations Committee, struggling homeowners who sold their homes in a short sale in the past eight months will be further penalized by being forced to pay state income taxes on money they never received, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.
Senate Bill 30 conforms California tax law to federal tax law, which already says sellers can’t be taxed on forgiven mortgage debt. SB 30 failed to pass out of the Assembly Appropriations committee last Friday. The vote on the bill was along party lines with Democrats voting “no” and Republicans voting “yes.”
“We are disappointed that California Assemblyman Mike Gatto (D-Pasadena) failed to show the leadership necessary to provide relief to distressed homeowners who are already in dire financial trouble,” said C.A.R. President Don Faught. “These are real families in real financial need who may well be forced into bankruptcy by an unresponsive legislature. To heap an unfair tax bill on top of the pain and emotional duress of losing a home is unconscionable.”
Under current state law, when a lender forgives mortgage debt in a short sale, the seller must pay state income tax on the amount of forgiven debt. The previous California exemption lapsed at the end of 2012, so forgiven mortgage debt on short sales occurring in 2013 is considered taxable state income. The federal government does not charge federal income tax, and neither should the state.
Unfortunately, Senate leadership, in an act of political gamesmanship, linked the enactment of SB 30 to a new tax measure in an effort to extort C.A.R.’s support for that tax measure.
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 30, 2013 | Foreclosure Count, Foreclosures |
The mid-range market isn’t getting much help from defaulted properties – here’s a look at last month’s foreclosure notices sorted by home size and their estimated value:
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 8, 2013 | Foreclosure Count, Foreclosures, North County Coastal, Short Sales, Short Selling
The foreclosure era is winding down, and around the North San Diego County Coastal region, the overall impact has been less than imagined – let’s recap the counts of distressed-sales:
| Year |
Short-Sale |
REO |
Non-REO/SS |
Distressed-Sales % |
| 2008 |
5 |
30 |
2,002 |
2% |
| 2009 |
110 |
164 |
1,949 |
12% |
| 2010 |
216 |
199 |
2,045 |
17% |
| 2011 |
278 |
190 |
2,094 |
18% |
| 2012 |
356 |
162 |
2,634 |
16% |
| 2013 (YTD) |
103 |
30 |
1,866 |
7% |
| Totals |
1,068 |
775 |
12,590 |
13% |
Short sales have had more negative impact on average pricing than REOs lately, mostly due to realtor fraud:
| Year |
Short-Sale |
REO |
Non-REO/SS |
| 2008 |
$262/sf |
$284/sf |
$440/sf |
| 2009 |
$295/sf |
$284/sf |
$408/sf |
| 2010 |
$318/sf |
$292/sf |
$393/sf |
| 2011 |
$292/sf |
$293/sf |
$393/sf |
| 2012 |
$284/sf |
$289/sf |
$396/sf |
| 2013 (YTD) |
$277/sf |
$323/sf |
$427/sf |
| Totals |
$293/sf |
$297/sf |
$409/sf |
Hopefully this embarassing chapter in realtor history will be over soon.
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 7, 2013 | Flips, Foreclosure Count, Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs, Jim's Take on the Market
Back in the old days there were 100-500 foreclosures per year in SD County:
We’ve already had 1,504 properties get foreclosed in the first half of 2013, so historically we’re still at elevated levels.
But with the county averaging 3,000+ total sales per month, lenders will be able to sprinkle in a couple of hundred REOs each month without affecting values much. In addition, flippers will keep doing their share; selling a similar amount of properties for retail-plus.
Lenders must be feeling comfortable at these levels, because the number of total notices were almost identical for the last two quarters. The Notices of Trustee Sale were down 52% Y-O-Y:
