Can we get a sense of the early-2014 market by how this year is winding up? We thought mortgage rates dipping back into the 3%-range again would be a boost, and it looked like we were headed that way. Two weeks ago, the 30-year fixed rate was 4.10%. Today's 30-year...
Forecasts
Appreciation to Drop 36% in 2014
From Zillow: Home values nationwide have been growing at a breakneck pace for much of 2013 and are predicted to finish the year up an average of 6.7 percent compared with the end of 2012, according to the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey. But that rapid...
Housing Confidence
Consumer confidence in housing significantly widened last month, as most taxpayers were turned off by the federal government shutdown and the ongoing debt ceiling debate, taking a toll on American’s outlook toward the housing market. The share of consumers who believe...
Norris on 2014
Bruce Norris, president of The Norris Group, which hosted the event "I Survived Real Estate" that drew to 450 ticket-holders and more than 85 tuning into a live webcast and raised $90,000 for Make-A-Wish and St. Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital, said he feels...
Same As 25 to 50 Years Ago
Quotes off yesterday's Case-Shiller Index report: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101152271 "I define a bubble as a time when people have extravagant expectations, and the expectations are driving home price increases," said Robert Shiller, Case-Shiller index co-founder and...
Market Summary
The basics on where the real estate market is today (no bubble). He expects the standard 5% to 6% appreciation, and says that the concern over shadow inventory has been 'overblown'. He doesn't mention that he was one of the shadow-inventory alarmists when he was...
2014: Reasonable Or Frenzy?
How much inventory is too much? We've had 12% more NSDCC listings this year than in the first nine months of 2012, and stoked by ultra-low rates, the extra inventory helped build sales momentum. Comparing the nine-month totals, sales increased 10% this year, and...
Psychological Shift, or Seasonal?
Mozart says that the recent hockey-stick change in the data is merely seasonal, and he expects 7.20% more appreciation in the next 12 months around NSDCC - and he has been right before. This graph would seem to indicate the same - just the usual malaise we see at the...
Housing Appreciation 2014 Forecast
Reader 'Native sd' asked, What do you think the appreciation will look like as we plateau? Given 21% yoy in sd, half of that or 10% in the next 12 months and halved again or 5% for the 12 months after that or a steeper drop off? Also zillow not only had their...
The Big Plateau
After the 2003-2004 frenzy that lasted about 18 months (sound familar?), the prices leveled off for the next couple of years - until the easy money could support it no more. With (slightly) higher mortgage rates and lagging buyer enthusiasm both helping to temper the...