Mike has now teamed up with another guy and both are believing that when (if) mortgage rates come down, it will spur more demand and sales. They are basing this belief on historical trends:...
Lower Rates = Lower Inventory?
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2026
SD Case-Shiller, May
San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Non-Seasonally-Adjusted The buyer enthusiasm in 2025 was about half of what it was in 2024. The May reading is the first double-aught month, with both MoM and YoY logging in zeros, and it sure looks like it will be the peak of the year....
Capital-Gains Tax Removal
Virtually every homeowner around here would benefit greatly from the capital-gains tax being removed from home sales. Only those who bought in the last 3-4 years don't have a $250,000+ gain already ($500,000 for married couples), but they bought their forever home and...
Zillow Local Forecast
The meandering through Flatsville is predicted to continue for the next 12 months - at least. The areas that have single-digit sales will have fewer comps to rely on and be particularly hard to accurately predict the values. Expect some wild fluctuations on occasion!...
Accidental Landlords
A local investor told me on Friday that he has a beach apartment for rent that is already priced 10% below the previous rent - and there has been no interest. Home sellers should be cautious about thinking they "can just rent it out if I have to". A power struggle is...
Relist In ’26
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/delistings-home-seller-june-trends-report/ Here's how it's playing out in San Diego. Even though the flow of new listings has slowed to last year's level (a sign of sellers surrendering before starting and not bothering to list at...
Pricing Estimates
The market has changed significantly and buyers have gained considerable negotiating power. Those who take advantage of it will likely earn a decent discount for the remainder of 2025. But how much discount? And where is it going over the next few years? Surely, we...
Inventory Growth Potential
Many thanks to Lance for providing more great data! It is very realistic that the inventory will be at much higher levels by this time next year - just from the amount of unsolds that will drag into the new year. Lower rates won't be enough to save all sellers - or...
Market Improvement Coming
Oh you buyers are being very coy, aren't you. Go ahead - be very picky and patient these days about the homes for sale. Keep chuckling to yourself about how the inventory is fat and heavy with OPTs and prices seem to have nowhere to go but down. Enjoy it while it...
The Rest of 2025
Based on the current market conditions, it's going to be a long cold winter. I can go on and on about the sluggish market, but it doesn't matter. Over the next three months, all that matters is whether sellers are motivated enough to move that they surrender. Give up...
