Spring Surge of Inventory?

homesweethomwThe guy in the video below expects a surge of inventory this spring because of higher prices.

But it’s not happening yet.

Here are the NSDCC detached-home listings that hit the market between Feb. 15 and March 15 (and 2012 had one extra day due to leap year):

Year
# of New Listings
LP Avg $/sf
2012
435
$425/sf
2013
443
$474/sf
2014
400
$551/sf

Greed and money are apparently taking a backseat to the utility value of a home, the comfort and convenience of not moving, and the weather!

UTC 2br/2ba Condo

Here’s a great buy for those looking for an attractive top-floor condo with gleaming hardwood floors, vaulted ceilings, 2 garages, plus new carpet and paint – all for only $395,000!

The last sale of this model was $418,000 in December.

Conveniently located between La Jolla and the UTC mall, similar units have been advertised recently for $2,000 to $2,200 per month in Craigslist:

Across the street from this complex is a Vons shopping center that also has a Starbucks, Sushi, Shanghai Cafe, Leucadia Pizzeria, yoga, dentist, Tapioca Express and more!

https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=76

The Pretenders

pretendersAfter steady doses of mainstream hard rock throughout the 1970s, I thought the new wave/punk music was for somebody else. In 1979, a friend had me listen to the first album by a new group called the Pretenders, and I thought this alternative stuff might be worth a listen after all.

The original line-up, in black and white:

Pocket/Off-MLS Sales 2

Part of the story about the Pre-MLS sales was that the local rules require that agents have 48 hours to input their new listings.

The last paragraph of the story:

The waiting period before a listing is submitted into the MLS was originally put in place to accommodate paperwork demands before MLSs were electronic.

“Is this two- or three-day waiting period an anachronism?” he asked.

The 48-hour rule was in place before Al Gore invented the internet, and should be revised.  But unscrupulous agents will game the system no matter what the rule is, so other provisions should be implemented too.

The listing contract was revised so both agent and seller acknowledge the benefits of MLS exposure, and are aware of the pitfalls of not utilizing it.

But more could be done.

The MLS should make it mandatory that a listing can’t be marked pending for at least two days after input.  At least if an agent is going to have to field phone calls about showing and selling, after a while they might catch on to the program.

Sure, many would just ignore the calls (many already do) but at least the message would be sent – there are other buyers interested in your listings, and you should accommodate them.

Part of the problem is pure ignorance – because agents see other agents throwing new listings right into the pending category, it gives them the impression that it is acceptable business.

Why is this allowed now? We have a fiduciary duty to the sellers!

If the MLS folks and the governing boards of the associations of realtors don’t take action, then eventually lawsuits will follow from sellers who figure out that they got screwed.

Kayla’s Korner

kaylaklingeRichard and I were in the St. Patrick’s Church-School golf tournament yesterday, which meant somebody else had to mind the store.

Not only did Kayla show houses and write offers succesfully, she also took a turn in front of the camera. You might find that she is a chip off the old block – but funnier!

Pocket/Off-MLS Sales

PocketIn a world accustomed to shock and awe, it seems that all media outlets feel the need to bolster their headlines to grab more eyeballs.

The I-News is no exception:

http://www.inman.com/2014/03/10/study-suggests-mls-played-little-or-no-role-in-nearly-half-of-2013-home-sales/#

Their comment section dissects the article pretty well, so let’s go straight to checking the sales in our own market.

The MLS and the tax rolls limit how many records you can search, so here is a comparison of NSDCC closed sales for the first two months of 2014:

Sales of SFRs, condos, and PUDs on tax rolls: 629

Detached and attached-home sales in MLS: 576

Percentage of sales in the MLS: 92%

You would think that sellers would insist on exposing their home to the maximum number of buyers.  But there are always going to be non-MLS sales that occur for various reasons, including new homes, for-sale-by-owners, homes sold to occupying tenants and/or family members, plus investors and flippers.

Off-market sales create a sexy headline, but around here the vast majority of sellers want open-market exposure, via the MLS.

Mortgage Fraud

FBI-logoLast summer I met with an FBI agent to discuss a local realtor. I submitted 32 pages of conclusive evidence that implicated the realtor in committing 19 cases of short-sale fraud.

Though the agent said he would pursue it, I never heard from the FBI again.

Hat tip to daytrip for sending in this article from the nytimes.com:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/business/a-loan-fraud-war-thats-short-on-combat.html?ref=business&_r=0

Two excerpts:

“The I.G. report confirmed what’s been clear for quite a while — that the D.O.J. has never taken mortgage fraud seriously,” Professor Levitin said. “There is going to be no comeuppance for crimes committed during the financial crisis. This sets a really bad precedent for future crises because we’re seeing that there is going to be no deterrent effect of criminal law.”

“The report fits a pattern that is scary for a democracy, that there really are two levels of justice in this country, one for the people with power and money and one for everyone else. And that eats at the heart of what I think makes this country great.”

Inventory Watch – No Waiting

We’ve seen the inventory growing lately – then out of nowhere the number of active listings between $1.4 and $2.4 drops by eleven!

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf

(more…)

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