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What are the ingredients for a double-dip?

We could say that declining sales would be a precursor, and a downward trend in pricing would be an obvious sign.  But the best signal would be houses on the market but not selling, listed for the same of lower prices than recent comps – or last year’s comps.

Town Zip Oct ’09 Sales/$persf Oct ’10 Sales/$persf ACT listings/$persf, LP
Cardiff 92007
6/$524/sf
3/$467/sf
41/$558/sf
Carlsbad NW 92008
10/$334
12/$286
87/$523
Carlsbad SE 92009
41/$278
38/$260
172/$273
Carlsbad NE 92010
15/$238
5/$269
41/$251
Carlsbad SW 92011
19/$306
20/$292
105/$335
Del Mar 92014
13/$926
5/$509
114/$1,051
Encinitas 92024
35/$370
33/$367
155/$488
La Jolla 92037
29/$631
23/$593
246/$935
RSF 67+91
11/$402
14/$459
277/$682
Solana Bch 92075
3/$625
4/$467
47/$755
West RB 92127
42/$270
38/$267
193/$319
RP 92129
24/$276
21/$274
92/$277
Carmel Vly 92130
28/$331
28/$328
168/$377
Scripps Rch 92131
24/$283
25/$250
118/$278
Total All
300/$368
269/$334
1,886/$544/sf

The average list pricing shows how insane most active (un-sold) sellers are – they are way above market.  What is worse is that no one really knows what list price it would take to be attractive to a buyer – all we know is that their current list price is wrong.

Take a good look at 92009, 92010, 92129, and 92131 – areas where the current average list pricing is within striking range of the last two Octobers, yet a lot of homes not selling.

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