Oh geez, did Jim say something about prices going down? Yes, and isn't it inevitable in areas where there is more supply than demand? Sure, we can always reflect on Rancho Santa Fe where having your home languish on the market every year is a rite of passage. Somebody...
Jim’s Take on the Market
Merry Christmas!
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Inventory Watch
Last week there were 386 NSDCC active listings, and today there are 343 - a difference of 57. Impressively, there were 25 listings that were marked as 'pending' in the last week! But it also means that a load of the unsuccessful sellers of 2024 will be back early next...
Graph-O-Rama
The Higher-Inventory Battle
Here's an example of how additional inventory causes commotion in the marketplace. Over the last couple of years, you could put a home up for sale and not have any competing listings around you - and few, if any, recent closed sales either. Buyers and their agents had...
Contest for Padres Tickets
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings come to market in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season! In past Januarys, the guesses spanned a reasonable range and usually the winner was somewhere in...
Big Mo in SE Carlsbad
To demonstrate further how the momentum is building, let's look at SE Carlsbad. 4th Quarter SFR Closed Sales Between $2,000,000 and $3,000,000 in the 92009: 2023: 9 2024: 23 The optimism coming off the election helped, because ALL of these went pending since November...

Frenzy Monitor – Big Mo
There are 20% more active listings, and 21% more pendings than we had last December - a monthly trend here in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the demand is keeping up with the supply. Compare it to August when there were 26% more homes for sale year-over-year, but 17%...
Inventory Surge in 2025
My Reasons Why NSDCC Inventory Will Surge in 2025: 1. Been trending that way - there has been 15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year than in 2023. 2. Since October 1st, there have been 90 more listings that cancelled than last year. They'll be back! 3. Prop 19 was...
2025 Price Forecasts
As usual, the pricing forecasts for next year are varied. How do we know what to expect? The average and the median is +3.55%. Two entities picked +2.3%. Just go with the highest at +10.8%? Moody's, the leader of the Doom Squad, just couldn't say flat. They had to go...