Our national real estate cheerleader at NAR, Lawrence Yun, has published his mid-year forecast. His original forecast for the 2025 Median Home Price was 2% originally, so his downgrade has cut it in half. I don't mind him having a revision, but doesn't his 2026 sound...
Forecasts
Welcome Mike
Congrats to Mike for coming on board. With him generating market data regularly, we have as much to gain as anyone at Compass - look for more data from Mike here! He offered a question on twitter: Here is his response: He goes into more detail here. Because there is...
Pricing Estimates
The market has changed significantly and buyers have gained considerable negotiating power. Those who take advantage of it will likely earn a decent discount for the remainder of 2025. But how much discount? And where is it going over the next few years? Surely, we...
Half-Year Report
I asked a few local real estate professionals what they thought about the current market conditions, and where the market might be going. The two big title companies, First American and Fidelity (which insures 13-15 other title companies) said that the year-over-year...
When Will Prices Decline?
These ivory-tower guys have explored the topic of rising inventory and it's relationship with declining home prices - and backed up their conclusions with math that every rocket scientist should love!...
Flat For Awhile
JB is predicting that the local appreciation will be positive for the next few years, though not by much. Zillow thinks the same thing, and if it bounces around in a tight range for the next 3-5 years, it probably won't surprise many. It means there won't be much, if...
San Diego Forecast
Hunch: 'Rebalancing' might take longer than expected. Executive Summary San Diego housing market exhibits a pronounced -2.38% YoY price decline with 3,245 unit surplus inventory, creating a buyer-favorable landscape with 29.6% of listings showing price cuts (+50.3%...
Future Demand
Our head cheerleader is back at it. He is predicting that sales and pricing will increase this year, which is optimistic: Here are the local YoY comparisons: It's been a miracle that sales and pricing this year have kept up with the 2024 numbers. Any Fed rate cuts are...
Zillow 2025 Forecast
Rates are in the spotlight again as 2025 approaches. That short-lived dip to two-year lows prompted renewed optimism for home buyers and bumped sales volume, then the rebound in October brought a reminder of unpredictability. Rates are likely to remain volatile...
JB 2025 Forecast
John is talking about builders here but I couldn’t pass up his mention of last January and February being sensational, and then fizzling out. If rates start climbing again (and it was a bad week – see above), we could have a surge of new listings colliding with rising...