It seems like the more time that passes by, the better the selection gets.
Though the trustee sales present many hurdles, at least today you have one component availble – these are auction properties that have their opening bid out in the open:
You’ve probably been able to follow where the blog is going – the all-out battle for product.
If you’re a realtor and can’t figure out how to bring fresh inventory to your buyers, what good are you? Anybody can monitor redfin or sdlookup, can you duke it out in the streets? Are you fighting to win, or just trying to hang on?
The video library is growing, and we’ll preview snippets all along the way:
Here is a video tour of a few of the 100 properties on the auction/REO list in 92009 and 92011 – it appears there will be plenty of McMansions to go around!
Folks have been wondering about what details could be culled from the foreclosure list. We’ll give the benefit of the doubt and omit those on the NOD list – they might be able to save themselves, or get a loan mod.
Let’s just look at the 100 SFRs valued between $685,000 and $1,250,000 in Carlsbad, 92009 and 92011 that have received their notice of trustee sale, or have met their fate on the steps of the county court house:
What’s the mix of Defaulted Purchase Loans vs. Refinances? If you refi’d your way into trouble, and wound up over-encumbered, that’s one thing. How many people either never saw the downturn coming, or or were hit by a hardship after purchasing?
Purchase Loans
Refinance Loans
51
49
How Many were Neg-ams? Tabulated by counting those who must have only made the minimum payment, and whose loan balance increased substantially, as noted on the NOTS. The cutoff was simple – if the amount on the notice of trustee sale was more than 10%, it was called a neg-am:
Neg-Am/Option ARMs
No-Neg Loans
39
61
Conservative vs. Riskier? Breakdown of above – How did folks use the neg-am loan as an affordability product?
Purch No-Neg
Refi No-Neg
Purch Neg-Ams
Refi Neg-Ams
34
27
17
22
Skin vs. No Skin in Game? How many used at least a 10% down payment when they purchased?
At Least 10% Down Pmt
Less Than 10% Down
77
23
What Year was the Mortgage Originated? How long are people able/willing to endure?
0-2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
3
5
28
36
27
1
How Quick are Banks Processing? How many months have gone, or went by since the first notice of trustee sale was recorded?
1 mo
2 mo
3 mo
4 mo
5 mo
6 mo
7+ mo
25
13
15
10
11
14
12
Auction List/Bank-Owned/3rd Party?
Auction List
Bank-Owneds
Sold to Third Parties
81
14
5
Trying to Sell? Five of the REOs just closed, and the other is pending (there are no active REO listings currently). The 3rd parties jump right on it, of the four: two are ACT, one PEND, and one SOLD:
Auction List on the MLS
REOs on the MLS
3rd Parties on the MLS
15 of 81
6 of 14
4 of 5
Shadow Inventory? The reverse of above. Once a property gets on the auction list, how much chance is there that they’ll be saved? If not saved, how many properties on the list are heading for market?
Auction List/REOs/3rd Party Properties Not on MLS
75 of 100
The 75 properties will probably roll onto the open market spread over the next 2-4 months, and get plenty of attention. The REOs that have already sold closed for $99,000 over list, $91,000 over list, $20,000 over list, list price, and $10,000 under list price.
Will the short-term market get overwhelmed with REOs and short sales, or just get dripped to death? Either way, I think there will be buyers – it’s just a matter of price!