Above you can see how our market compares to others, and below is the history of our ‘months of supply’. I said in the video yesterday that I thought the NSDCC sales in 2020 will be down 10% year-over-year mostly because there aren’t enough reasonably-priced homes to sell (or conversely, there aren’t enough buyers who can/will overpay for the multi-million-dollar homes).
I think you can see some of the price resistance lately as the orange line got into the 3s the last two years. We’ve seen how the velocity of the price increases has slowed considerably and when that happens, the natural next step for the market is fewer sales.
The orange line hit 3.0 in April of this year, when the previous April it was only 2.4, which means the inventory grew quicker at the start of the selling season. Expect the same in 2020, and when buyers see a rapidly growing inventory, it’s natural for them to be cautious and picky.
” there aren’t enough buyers who can/will overpay for the multi-million-dollar homes”
Well said. The fix for high prices is high prices. Sooner or later there will be either a reversion to the mean or an overshoot.
But the multi-million sellers want to believe it’s just a matter of time, and want to keep waiting for the mythical young couple with 2.2 kids to come along and love their tin-foil wallpaper like they do.
For all we know, we have already overshot!?!
Sellers of the 157 homes listed over $2,000,000 for sale in RSF want to believe next year will be their year – but only 21 sales like that in the last 30 days, and 144 in the last 12 months. It may only be that the aggressive sellers find a buyer, and once it starts, you know it’s a slippery slope.