July, 2019 - bubbleinfo.com

NSDCC Listings, First Six Months

by Jim the Realtor | Jul 2, 2019 | Contests, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

Bill (in Giants jersey) from the Bay Area has been reading the blog for the last ten years!

He won the earlier contest for Padres tickets, so when he and his family were here on vacation, they took in the first game of the series last night – a 13-2 shellacking by the Giants! They got on TV too:

Congrats Bill and family!

The contest was predicting how many new listings we would have in the first two months of 2019. Bill’s guess was 777, which was the third lowest of those submitted – we all thought more sellers would want to cash out at these prices!

Yesterday’s doomer was looking for the right evidence – historically, one of the first signs of trouble is a surge of inventory. We saw it last time in the first half of 2006 when listings jumped 23% as sellers started scrambling to get out:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 to June 30:

Year	Number of Listings	Median List Price
2005	2,892	$1,150,876
2006	3,547	$1,120,000
2007	3,120	$1,182,500

But still no surge here locally in 2019.

Our inventory count this year is looking normal – and 24% under the 2006 count:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 to June 30:

Year	Number of Listings	Median List Price
2013	2,790	$1,179,000
2014	2,713	$1,120,000
2015	2,871	$1,182,500
2016	2,999	$1,425,000
2017	2,712	$1,425,000
2018	2,700	$1,499,000
2019	2,705	$1,569,000

In the first half of 2005, we had 400 sales close under $750,000, and this year we had 55.

We had 560 homes list for $2,000,000+ in the first half of 2005, and 238 closings. This year, we had 901 listings over $2,000,000, and 298 closings!

Inventory Watch

by Jim the Realtor | Jul 1, 2019 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Zillow | 3 comments

One of our favorite doomers says the tide is rolling out because inventory is up 37% in L.A.

There are 11.5% more San Diego homes for sale, year-over-year. But in an area of 3.3 million people, having less than 10,000 homes for sale doesn’t sound like panic time – and other metros have more: