Bill (in Giants jersey) from the Bay Area has been reading the blog for the last ten years!
He won the earlier contest for Padres tickets, so when he and his family were here on vacation, they took in the first game of the series last night – a 13-2 shellacking by the Giants! They got on TV too:
Congrats Bill and family!
The contest was predicting how many new listings we would have in the first two months of 2019. Bill’s guess was 777, which was the third lowest of those submitted – we all thought more sellers would want to cash out at these prices!
Yesterday’s doomer was looking for the right evidence – historically, one of the first signs of trouble is a surge of inventory. We saw it last time in the first half of 2006 when listings jumped 23% as sellers started scrambling to get out:
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 to June 30:
| Year | ||
| 2005 | ||
| 2006 | ||
| 2007 |
But still no surge here locally in 2019.
Our inventory count this year is looking normal – and 24% under the 2006 count:
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 to June 30:
| Year | ||
| 2013 | ||
| 2014 | ||
| 2015 | ||
| 2016 | ||
| 2017 | ||
| 2018 | ||
| 2019 |
In the first half of 2005, we had 400 sales close under $750,000, and this year we had 55.
We had 560 homes list for $2,000,000+ in the first half of 2005, and 238 closings. This year, we had 901 listings over $2,000,000, and 298 closings!
Thanks, Jim! We had a blast.
As far as the numbers, I just looked at the evidence you provided, averaged out some of your historical numbers, and rounded to lucky 7’s.
Good as method as any these days! 🙂
It looks to be a battle of equals next month when the Red Sox show up. It’s also good to know we won’t have to smuggle our Bosox beanies through the gate for fear of getting accosted by rabid Padres fans.
I’m a staunch opponent to subsidized stadia. That doesn’t mean they cannot be woven into the urban community and provide a positive force. Petco Park works as a part of the area.
A prayer for Angels player Tyler Skaggs.