There are other variables, but the amount and quality of the inventory will determine our fate in 2018. Even with our Sandicor MLS logging duplicate listings, our count of houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad dropped about 10% this year!
It wouldn’t matter if we cut back on the number of higher-end listings – there would still be plenty to go around. Where did the shortage happen this year?
| Year | |||
| 2013 | |||
| 2014 | |||
| 2015 | |||
| 2016 | |||
| 2017 |
The number of high-enders were remarkably about the same as last year – the shortage this year was almost entirely on the lower end.
Today, there are only 41 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000. There will be more, but I think we can expect the number of sellers willing to take less than a million to drop even further in 2018 – less than 1,000 for sure, and possibly as low as 700-800 listings.
There were 882 NSDCC houses sold this year under $1,000,000 (so far). We could still have close to that many sell again in 2018 if the frenzy picks up on the cheapies and virtually every listing sells.
I’m a bad predictor of things, but I really can’t believe that inventory is going to do anything but shrink. Most everyone south of Oceanside is sitting on a million+ house at this point. Unless they are willing to leave the area, what are they going to do? The new tax scheme is a real punisher to the buy-up crowd – (1) higher property taxes now only partially deductible (2) new loan over 750k now partially deductible. Stay put, renovate, enjoy life living in the nest egg.
Maybe the old folks will start to cash out since they can take their property tax base with them, but they have to buy-down – which means condo living if they want to stay in the same general area.
Maybe the old folks will start to cash out…
Agreed. Unless we get a load of long-timers (of any age) who want to cash out and leave the state, we’re going to have very few properties priced under $1M to consider. We could literally end up with only half the number of Under-$1M listings in 2018 – which works out to about 40 per month – for the vast majority of buyers.
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Visited some new condos in Carlsbad facing 78 freeway near wall mart/college ave…best bang for the buck out there,,, 3 BR’s 2 1/2 baths and almost 1700 SQ ft,new two story, full 2 car garage, Carlsbad address, easy shopping, low mello too’s at $118, low HOA and great construction for the price point right at 600 with upgrades, and they have one under 600K ready to go. The development is called “Agave” at the “Preserve”..which is a master planned community. Buy, keep it for a couple of years it will make an super rental in the future. Jim you should check them out…..happy new year to for a great year on the “bubble’
Been there….in March! And I agree, it is a good value for Carlsbad.
Here is my tour of the models:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2017/03/18/carlsbad-new-townhouses/