Debt is Down

mortgage debt

For those who are concerned about another bubble, here is evidence that indicates we’re in a position to handle it better.  Leverage is down, which should mean less government intervention next time (?):

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-market-is-less-leveraged-than-during-the-bubble-2015-6#ixzz3d96G4k29

An excerpt:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Michelle Meyer offered some color on this in a recent note to clients.

She discussed the ratio of the total level of mortgage debt to the overall market value of real estate. This adjusts the amount of leverage and debt in the housing market by the total size of the market. Meyer observes that there’s been a huge drop in this measure since the Great Recession:

“[The ratio] shows that 44% of real estate wealth is made up of mortgage debt. This is nearly back to the pre-bubble crisis and compares to a peak of 63% in 2Q09 (Chart 7). A lower aggregate loan-to-value ratio suggests the real estate market should be more susceptible to shocks in the future.”

Meyer then considers some of the causes of the drop in mortgage debt. Debt dropped as a result of the unwinding of the housing bubble:

“Much of the decline in mortgage debt owes to foreclosures which resulted in the liquidation of delinquent debt. However, it also is a function of lower loan sizes given larger down payments and the drop in home prices.”

Liquidation of delinquent debt sounds bad, and it’s certainly unpleasant for people losing their homes.  Nevertheless, it’s reflective of a system clearing out an ugly past.

Picky

Our market has been on an extended run for years, who’s left? Move-up buyers are prime candidates, as are the out-of-towners coming from more expensive areas (a great reason to hire the agent who does video tours to make it easy for them to preview!).

Tick Tock

We’ve touched on this, but now the NAR-commissioned report is going mainstream – here is a link:

http://www.courant.com/real-estate/hc-harney-0614-20150612-story.html

A snippet:

Consider these broadsides to get the flavor of the report:

>> “The real estate industry is saddled with a large number of part-time, untrained, unethical and/or incompetent agents. This knowledge gap threatens the credibility of the industry.” Ouch!

>> Low entry requirements for agents are a key problem. While other professionals often must undergo extensive education and training for thousands of hours or multiple years, realty agents need only complete 70 hours on average to qualify for licenses to sell homes, with the lowest state requirement for licensing at just 13 hours. Cosmetologists, by contrast, average 372 hours of training, according to the report.

>> Professional, hard-working agents across the country “increasingly understand that the ‘not-so-good’ agents are bringing the entire industry down.” Yet there “are no meaningful educational initiatives on the table to raise the national bar … .”

>> The commissions that realty brokers and agents charge are under attack and highly vulnerable to reductions because of pressure from cost-sensitive consumers. While typical commission rates in this country are around 6 percent, fees in other developed countries are significantly lower. In the United Kingdom, they average 1 to 2 percent; in Australia, 2 to 3 percent; Belgium, 3 percent; Germany, 3 to 6 percent.

>> In response to consumer demand for lower fees, “a growing new generation of brokers and agents [is] exploring … new business models and pricing models that will most likely become commonplace in the next 5 to 10 years.” The reference here is to technology-driven discount brokers who are making inroads in many markets. Baby boomers looking to downsize and millennials seeking first homes are especially interested in shaving fees to save money.

>> Realty brokerages face their own challenges, such as compliance with aggressively enforced federal regulatory policies. Among the most prominent, according to the report: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s anti-kickback and referral-fee rules governing brokers’ financial arrangements with title companies, lenders and others. Though “most brokerage companies are either ignorant of the fact or believe they are in compliance,” says the report, “most are likely in violation already.”

The real estate machine thrives on new, inexperienced, and lazy agents.  They need them and their lousy commission splits – and dues – to survive.  Why then, is N.A.R. releasing this report, especially when there won’t be any meaningful response?

Is it to ensure that agents know they should be polishing up their resumes as we wait for Zillow to clean our clock?  Seems like it!

www.dangerreport.com

Nordstrom Coming to Carlsbad

nordy

From the SD Union-Tribune:

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/jun/10/caruso-announces-details-of-strawberryfields-plan/

— Luxury department store chain Nordstrom will anchor an ambitious outdoor shopping and entertainment complex planned near the Agua Hedionda Lagoon in Carlsbad, the project’s developer said Tuesday.

Caruso Affiliated has signed an agreement with the Seattle-based retailer to build a two-level, 123,000-square-foot store in the 585,000-square-foot promenade-style shopping center planned at the intersection of Cannon and Interstate 5, said Bryce C. Ross, Caruso’s vice president of acquisitions and development.

Read full article and comments here:

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/jun/10/caruso-announces-details-of-strawberryfields-plan/

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