We are still getting reports that year-over-year sales are declining, and that means something is wrong or bad. Below they are comparing the counts to last year’s frenzy numbers and are crying wolf. But what do you expect when the frenzy is over?
Our local stats look great – this year NSDCC has about the same number of July sales as we did two years ago, when prices were 20% lower (some late-reporters still coming too).
| NSDCC Sales, July | ||
| 2001 | ||
| 2002 | ||
| 2003 | ||
| 2004 | ||
| 2005 | ||
| 2006 | ||
| 2007 | ||
| 2008 | ||
| 2009 | ||
| 2010 | ||
| 2011 | ||
| 2012 | ||
| 2013 | ||
| 2014 |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
From the U-T:
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/aug/03/housing-market-flashes-caution/
Persistent sales slowdown keeps the local recovery fragile, raising odds of relapse
A time-tested signal of weakness in the housing market is flashing yellow.
When you compare the number of home sales (which are highly seasonal) with those from the same month a year earlier, this key measure has declined in San Diego County for nine consecutive months through June — with five at double-digit rates.
Statewide trends are similar, with 11 straight months of year-over-year sales declines, according to the latest figures from DataQuick, a company that tracks transactions reported to county governments.
“My sellers are in complete shock. We’re getting no calls, no inquiries. It’s like the market just went away,” said Kimberly Dotseth, a San Diego real estate broker. “Buyers think prices are too high.”
An exception is the lower-priced segment of the market, where homes listed for $400,000 or less are still receiving multiple offers and quick sales. This supports the view that high price might be a primary factor discouraging many sales, rather than other factors such as tough lending standards or too few homes on the market.
In the history of housing markets, downturns typically have begun with sales weakness that sometimes ended up forcing down prices, but not always.
This holds back the wider economy, even if home prices don’t fall in the near future — as they have twice since 2006. That’s because low sales activity reduces a giant source of spending for remodeling, decorating and new construction.
Given the trauma of the last decade, the condition of the local housing market is a serious subject.
Read the full article here:
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/aug/03/housing-market-flashes-caution/
I agree with the notion that the trauma of the big crash still looms in the back of everyone’s mind. That being said, the stats are more complicated than articles like this can accurately address. I think anyone that reads this blog or otherwise follows or participates in the north county market understand that most current listings are at prices pushing the envelope and that many current sellers are testing the water sellers, not sellers with a compelling need to sell or reduce their price. Everyone will continue to try for +10% over the last guy until they can’t get it anymore. Anything listed at a reasonable price still sells immediately, for now.
Agreed, and as every seller go for the max, it has never been a better time to price reasonably and stand out.