Here’s video testimony regarding market conditions around San Elijo Hills/South Carlsbad.
In the 92009, 92011, and 92078 zip codes, there have been 228 houses marked pending this year, not counting contingents (71 of those new pendings have closed already). All that is left are the picked-over listings, and in today’s market, a house has to be really wrong on price to not find a buyer.
Will it mean higher prices? Maybe, maybe not. There has to be a steady flow of sales to sustain momentum – and this could be a momentary blitz that could sputter if the supply dries up:
The youtube link: http://youtu.be/gdUxiGiPlK0
Good to have you back, JtR. Things were getting stale without the quality videos.
Now that’s what I call front-line reporting.
Remember the days when there were 10 foreclosures on one street in SEH and 3000 sqft homes were in the 500’s?
Thanks JSG, a week or so ago there were days when I could barely speak.
While we are talking about me deleting comments, it should be noted that this blog gets hammered by people who try to pimp their goods and services in the comment section. it’s mostly the automated bots that are mass spamming every blog, and thankfully my spam-control catches most of the 25-50 comments per day.
But occasionally a few will slip in, well-disguised as a regular comment but with links and emails out to their business. I delete those, but if you saw the comment there for a while and then it was gone, you might think that mean old Jim is cranky today. But that is not the case.
Yes, remember the video where I caught the big rainbow in Sept 2009?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGivpLqhY4c
14 of 29 houses on the street were either in foreclosure, or foreclosed. One 3,600sf house sold for $460,000.
Today?
Of the 73 pendings in 92078:
REO: 7
SS: 12
Reg. 54
Avg LP: $493,213
Avg SF: 2,507sf
That was one quality video.
I’ve been advocating for SEH and 4S over the last few years for precisely this. These are quality neighborhoods with good schools. They got hammered on the way down, thus presenting a great chance for bargain hunting with excellent chance of future value.
I do think rather than chasing a suddenly reduced inventory with the associated bump in price, buyers should back off for a while. in these communities, the ability to persevere is strong, and there may be quite a number of folks just waiting for an uptick in price to jump back into the market. This will of course temper the upswing in price.
As for the sales activities at the new homes, I’ve seen the same type of traffic in other new home communities.
Wait until next fall/winter. Early Spring is the worst time to buy because sellers and agents conspire to talk themselves into believing the market can do no wrong. Near the end of the summer when kids are starting up school again is when sellers start to sweat.
The real problem is right now sellers aren’t paying their mortgage and they’re also not getting evicted. This is incentive to shoot for the stars on price. If you’re not paying your mortgage waiting for a higher price just extends out the free rent.
Nice to know homeownership hasn’t changed shadash. 😉
p.s.: Isn’t SEH and 4S home to some hefty MR’s?
Yes, most of the MR payoff is around $40-50k. Factor that into the purchase price.
Jim – My wife and I have been loyal readers of your “blog” for years. We love the information, personalities, and comments. Don’t change a thing. We have owned in Carlsbad since early 2000 and we are looking to move up to a bigger house in (South) Carlsbad. What about the bombers in La Costa Oaks? Sales don’t seem to be blistering hot and it’s an area we are looking at – could we see more squish down (below $200 ft) given the # of people underwater? What about Bay Collection? That doesn’t seem too hot either (another area we like). My favorite listing in BC is 7071 Heron (over 400 days on market). They just reduced the price a whopping $15K. The Redfin listing comments for 7071 are hilarious (must read). Keep focusing on S. Carlsbad (1MM to $700K) – I believe there are people like me that who didn’t drink the Kool Aid in 2005 and are now ready to jump in (move up) but are not sure if its the right time yet.
D Man,
It’s all about price, and flight to quality.
A major on-going shift is from quantity to quality. Buyers are buying what they need, and just because they can get a bomber for less than $200/sf isn’t as important as buying a smaller house for less money. Does anybody really NEED 4,000sf-plus in Carlsbad?
Bay Collection lots are too small, which makes each house its own study. The sellers with neighbors all over them and a peak view are dreaming that buyers will ignore that, and pay the same as the premium homes.
Right time? When you find the right house, and the right price!
Email me so we can discuss further – I’d like to be your realtor!