How many rich people are there in the U.S., how much do they make and where do they live?
According the data from the Census Bureau,there are currently 4.5 million households that earn over $200,000 per year, which is roughly 3.8% of all households in the country.
1. California
% of Households Earning $200K+: 6.2%
Total Households: 12,200,672
Households Earning $200K+: 757,411 Median Income: $56,862
2. New York
% of Households Earning $200K+: 5.6%
Total Households: 7,099,940 =
Households Earning $200K+: 399,014 Median Income: $50,372
3. Texas
% of Households Earning $200K+: 3.9%
Total households: 8,244,022
Households earning $200K+: 313,681
Median income: $47,143
4. Illinois
% of Households Earning $200K+: 4.4%
Total Households: 4,759,579
Households Earning $200K+: 208,385 Median Income: $53,413
The Census also reports that 12.9% of San Diego County residents (approximately 126,388 people) have incomes of $100,000 or more per year (16.3% of males, and 7.5% of females).
The estate tax—gone for 2010 but back in 2011—will have changes that should make it less painful for taxpayers. That’s if the current Obama tax cut plan crafted with the GOP becomes law.
The feared provisions—a 55 percent rate on estates valued at more than $1 million for individuals and $2 million for couples—were set for automatic return next year.
Now, as part of theproposedtwo year extension of the Bush tax cuts and the extended unemployment benefits, estate tax payers face a rate of 35 percent with an exemption up to $5 million.
The proposal also lets survivors combine their exemption with that of a spouse who has died, for a total exemption of $10 million—almost guaranteeting they would not pay.
“The best part of this plan is that it’s better than the 2011 provisions,” says Ryan Ellis, tax policy director at the conservative Americans for Tax Reform. “But it’s worse than 2010 when there was no estate tax. Thirty-five percent will become the new normal, I hope, and we can work to get the rate down from there. This will help the economy with keeping more money in the hands of people.”
An estimated 40,000 of the largest estates will skip the estate tax under the new rates, leaving only around 3,500 estates that will owe Uncle Sam. One analyst says that’s too much lost tax revenue in a struggling economy.
“The estate tax is a fairly small revenue generator, but it’s $300 billion over ten years that’s lost with these new rates,” says Benjamin Harris, a senior research associate at the Brookings Institute. “Those are taxes that have to be made up elsewhere or we’ll have even more deficits. There are also better ways to stimulate the economy, then cutting taxes for the rich.”
Commentary on today’s MBS market, written by Adam atthe MDN:
We were forced to sit in on another slaughtering today. It didn’t start that way but by 5pm the 10 yr note had totally shed all gains, gone red, and broken two or three more support levels on its way up to 3.538%. The FNCL 4.0 MBS coupon actually revisited the 96 handle in after hours trading. April was the last time 4.0s saw the 96s. Lenders repriced for the worse.Lenders repriced for the worse again. The best execution 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now 5.00%
WTF?
Lots of explanations out there. Not much of a consensus on the actual cause of this mess though. Everybody seems to be grinding a different axe or taking another angle.
Onlookers attempt to rationalize but always end up wrapped in a web of conflicting conclusions. Me included. We have so much on our plate. How could anyone make sense of it all?
Tax cut extensions. QEII. Inflation. Deflation. Reflation. Disinflation. Weak dollars. Strong exports. More Jobs. Strong dollars. Weak exports.Fewer Jobs. Investments in productivity. Faster factories. Fewer Jobs! Super high savings rate. Seasonal spending sprees. Temporary hiring? Long term unemployed!?Lazy labor force. Lower wage rate. Private payrolls growth. WAGE RATE GROWTH. Aggregate demand. Foreign investor demand. European states. State and local governments. Budget Deficits. Credit Ratings…………..currency crisis…..NORTH KOREA…IRAN….CHINA……2012. BOOM.
And I didn’t even mention housing or financial reform or the assorted entitlements that may or may not lead to the downfall of the greatest country in the world.
SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE HARD TO WRITE AN ECONOMIC FORECAST WITH ALL THAT TO CONSIDER AT ONCE RIGHT?
And Then. To make matters worse. This is all being digested in a trading environment that is primed for price volatility. Allowing for an easy misinterpretation of the market’s exaggerated momentum which in the process has drawn more onlookers who are attempting to explain which leads to more ambiguity which takes us full circle on what I am calling the “UNCERTAINTY PREMIUM”. <—There it is. The root cause under the recent spike in rates. (SELL IN DECEMBER BUY IT BACK IN JANUARY?)
The market is really just glad to be getting out of 2010 with profits on the book and no FBI on its back. And unfortunately the buyers we need to get this sell off moving in the opposite direction are clearly sitting on their wallets….watching as fast$ day traders commoditize the benchmarks that dictate the directionality of our mortgage rates….which has sadly led to an incredulous amount of snowball selling (remember the relentless rise in oil prices during the summer of 2007? the current herding behavior of the TSY market is very similar)
All this nonsense certainly makes you wonder about the sudden shift in economic outlooks we keep hearing about though. Especially when you stop to consider that all economic outlooks are essentially incomplete because at least one of the underlying assumptions in every model is pushing the boundaries of “guesstimating”. Leaving much room for a wider margin of error. Or as the Federal Reserve puts it, “Participants continued to attach an unusually high degree of uncertainty to their projections”.
So Yeh. The “uncertainty premium”. And yes I think this sell off has been exaggerated. No I do not know when momentum will turn for the better. But if I had to venture a guess it would probably revolve around the release of the December Employment Situation Report on Friday January 7th, 2011.
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The showroom is incredible, with a sample of every floor type available – including cork! But it’s the quality of the service that has caused me to send people to Chuck Ward, owner, and Ken Calkin, manager, for over ten years – they know their flooring, and they treat you right.
SAN DIEGO — A three-judge state appellate court panel ruled Friday in favor of the desalination plant under construction in Carlsbad, saying the developer does not need to conduct more environmental studies.
The ruling by the Fourth District Court of Appeal affirmed a ruling by Superior Court Judge Judith Hayes that rejected arguments in a lawsuit filed by San Diego Coastkeeper against the California State Lands Commission.
Coastkeeper claimed that the lower court should have found that the commission was supposed to have required a supplemental environmental impact report. However, the justices agreed with Hayes that the environmental studies already completed were sufficient.
Poseidon Resources, the firm building the facility next to the Encina Power Plant, said in a statement that environmentalists are filing lawsuits to delay the project, which will convert 50 million gallons a day of ocean water into drinking water.
The ruling was the 10th to favor Poseidon, according to the company.
“The ruling is definitive and is the latest in a series of independent determinations that the project complies with state environmental law,” said Peter MacLaggan, a Poseidon senior vice president.
San Diego Coastkeeper believes the plant will devastate local fisheries and habitat.
Here is a link to the full story, discussing both of the Poseidon desal projects underway in Carlsbad and Huntington Beach, where they are now relying on government subsidies, due to cost overruns:
If the CWA does decide to take over the Carlsbad desalination project, it won’t be the first time that Poseidon—which has yet to build a single desalination plant—failed to finish a project or have taxpayers pick up after it.
Another new year of real estate turbulence is upon us – around and around we go, where it stops, nobody knows!
But that won’t stop us from trying to predict what will happen. Here’s the recent SD history below – leave your predictions in the comment section, and click the ‘Forecasts’ button (at bottom) for last year’s thoughts:
SD County Det.
2007
2008
2009
2010 YTD
Total listings, year
46,056
42,567
34,241
35,874
Total closings, year
15,713
19,103
22,571
19,492
4Q Closings
2,965
5,450
5,839
3,463
4Q $$-per-sf
$329/sf
$233/sf
$243/sf
$260/sf
4Q SP:LP
95%
98%
100%
100%
4Q Avg. DOM
71
62
59
69
The sales numbers could be substantially higher, if it weren’t for the bumbling incompetence among listing agents. Too many think that ‘waiting for months for a buyer to come along’ makes for an effective marketing plan, rather than lowering the list price early and often in order to find what the market will bear while there is urgency. But more of them will be getting lucky in 2011, because the competition for the quality buys will be even more ferocious next year.
The average cost-per-sf for detached sales in SD County rose 9% in 2010. I think it’ll increase another 9% in 2011, fueled by the red-hot lower price ranges. But sales will struggle, possibly 20% fewer sales overall, because buyers will want to hold out for the best. The bar is rising on what buyers are willing to tolerate, but they’ll spend the money on a top-quality house.
Here is the chart for North SD County Coastal detached:
NSDCC Det.
2007
2008
2009
2010 YTD
Total listings, year
5,406
5,289
5,045
5,169
Total closings, year
2,479
2,037
2,222
2,302
4Q Closings
444
433
642
420
4Q $$-per-sf
$476/sf
$407/sf
$408/sf
$383/sf
4Q SP:LP
94%
95%
95%
97%
4Q Avg. DOM
75
72
82
83
(Add 10%, or so, to the 2010 sales for the late-reporters, and remaining December sales).
Why would sales slow down considerably?
Because greedy or desperate sellers will be listing early and often, and tacking on the extra 5% to 10% to their already-inflated list price dream. Please refer to Rich’s excellent graph/commentary on the relationship between active inventory and sales – here – and how pricing stalls once inventory exceeds six months’ worth. This is where the buyers’ intolerance comes in – more OPTs will infuriate the dedicated buyers, because the selections will look worse than those in 2010. But in the end, I’ll guessing we’ll buck the trend in Rich’s link, and the pricing metrics will shows year-over-year increases. Here’s why – many of the same themes we’ve seen here for the last two years:
Buyer Exhaustion – The frustrated buyers might be tempted enough to pay more, but only for a top contender.
Mortgage rates – stay in the 5% to 6% range, and buyers shrug them off.
No Foreclosure Tsunami – at least one foreclosure moratorium, and more defaulters hold out for their principal-reduction dream.
MERS – government forced to cut deal, instead of enduring another banking crisis.
More and more out-of-area buyers come here who think our real estate is cheap, and buy it up – while locals shake their head.
No tax-credit cheese this year.
Spousal pressure. The kids are getting older, and the “good-buy” inventory has never been so thin.
More hype – Prudential just called us a “blistering hot sellers’ market under $1,000,000”.
I think more potential buyers will stick their toe in the water in 2011, and they’ll find out quickly how difficult it is to find, let alone buy a good house, at a good price.
Buyers are tired of waiting, but will hold out the best they can. The bigger the inventory grows, the easier it’ll be for them to wait.
How many rich people are there in the U.S., how much do they make and where do they live?
