Readers have asked to break down the stats to further identify more trends. How is the market behaving at different price points?
Here are the NSDCC detached quarterly stats in three price categories:
0-$700,000
| Stat Type | 1Q09 | 2Q09 | 3Q09 | 4Q09 | 1Q10 | 2Q10 | 3Q10 |
| # of sales | 138 | 207 | 223 | 215 | 167 | 239 | 195 |
| $$/sf | $294/sf | $297/sf | $295/sf | $299/sf | $308/sf | $315/sf | $303/sf |
| Avg SF | 1,916 | 1,942 | 2,026 | 1,977 | 1,973 | 1,956 | 2,015 |
| Avg SP | $541,140 | $552,622 | $571,335 | $557,556 | $582,804 | $581,250 | $583,343 |
| Avg DOM | 73 | 53 | 50 | 66 | 49 | 51 | 57 |
$701,000 to $1,200,000
| Stat Type | 1Q09 | 2Q09 | 3Q09 | 4Q09 | 1Q10 | 2Q10 | 3Q10 |
| # of sales | 113 | 225 | 294 | 281 | 211 | 319 | 298 |
| $$/sf | $345/sf | $344/sf | $342/sf | $351/sf | $341/sf | $360/sf | $346/sf |
| Avg SF | 2,774 | 2,817 | 2,831 | 2,786 | 2,821 | 2,735 | 2,849 |
| Avg SP | $882,151 | $874,372 | $884,297 | $893,382 | $890,060 | $882,325 | $898,275 |
| Avg DOM | 63 | 63 | 66 | 70 | 66 | 61 | 56 |
$1,200,000+
| Stat Type | 1Q09 | 2Q09 | 3Q09 | 4Q09 | 1Q10 | 2Q10 | 3Q10 |
| # of sales | 89 | 132 | 168 | 152 | 125 | 183 | 159 |
| $$/sf | $606/sf | $635/sf | $556/sf | $673/sf | $550/sf | $512/sf | $515/sf |
| Avg SF | 4,291 | 4,285 | 4,143 | 4,117 | 4,570 | 4,321 | 4,442 |
| Avg SP | $2.394M | $2.443M | $2.092M | $2.398M | $2.288M | $2.054M | $2.042M |
| Avg DOM | 104 | 96 | 126 | 125 | 131 | 94 | 100 |
More evidence that the demand is healthy – these stats are about as steady as you could expect, given all the commotion in the media about housing. Just having 1,008 houses close over $1,200,000 in the last two years without a meltdown, sounds miraculous to me.
The $psf seems quite volatile in the higher end. I suppose that maybe has something to do with the # of sales… except that it is similar to the 0 to 700K.
Seems to me that the last 2 years has been all about the move in the high end, as the lower tiers seem relatively quiet.
Chuck
Based on this info and the previous post about November YoY sales, it looks increasingly likely that The large increase between Nov 2009 and Nov 2010 average price per sqft could be attributed the mix. Based on this data NCC was roughly flat in price and slight down in number of sales but on the San Diego data the number of sales was down signficantly giving NCC a bigger weighting in the county price per sqft category.
That said YoY sales are down slightly, while QoQ sales are down significantly. The QoQ sales drop is much different than last year which had a big increase Q2 2009 to Q3 2009 which likely had something to do with the tax credit even though NCC buyers likely didn’t need the credit. Maybe it was just enough incentive to get people off the fence.
The next interesting piece of data will likely be Q2 2011 as we’ll see if we get a return to the more traditional pattern of a hot market in spring without any major government intervention. I think Q2 2011 will likely be a good tell for the next couple of years. If we get increased sales numbers and prices we’ve likely seen a bottom. If we get flat sales or decreased prices to generate sales then maybe we have more downside.
Chuck,
It appears volatile, but there is such a difference in the quality of house you get with each sale that there’s bound to be variance.
The more-standard tract houses lower down the scale would track “relatively quiet”, to use your description.
Jim
I’m only partially satisfied by that answer. Although the law of large numbers (if those are “large” numbers of sales) would imply that this should be quieter, I think that maybe more could be read into this, though I’m not sure what the story is.
Do you think there is no story, and it’s just a function of the number and quality of deals that get done?
I guess to counter my own argument, this is maybe the fat tail of house prices; there is no even distribution of prices.
Chuck
Chuck-I’m not familiar with the term ‘fat tail’. Can you educate me? Thanks!
North County Coastal was a good bet in this recession.
Probably less quick money to be made here in real estate but certainly more stable.
For those with more modest means I think the best play is buying a cheap house east of the 5, and, right near it now and sell in 2 years. Then move yourself across the 5 closer to the beach in 2012.
Mozart-If you are thinking prices will continue to go down, wouldn’t renting for those two years be a better option? Buying a house with a plan to sell in less than five years or so always sounds like a bad idea to me.
Even if prices don’t go down, you’d lose money selling in two years because of commissions and closing costs.
“Even if prices don’t go down, you’d lose money selling in two years because of commissions and closing costs.”
You really need about a 10% gain to break even on Real Estate. It’s a lot like buying physical gold or silver where you need a 10% gain just to break even on the transaction costs. If you’re buying now it probably needs to be a cash flow rental or something you plan to stay in a while, I’d guess 5+ years to break even at best but you never know.
I’m seeing some real deals right now east of 5 that are just stupid low. I also have friends trying to move here and want to rent but a dump goes for $2,500. You can buy some homes for about the same price.
My guess is that this time next year sales price will be up at least 7%. Rents are and will be going up too. Not dramatically but definitely enough to be motivational and inspire home ownership.
For fun try this website;
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html
You can plug in your numbers and adjust what you think home prices will do. By my math it pays for itself in 2 years. I would call right now a double dip but it seems like a gift for anyone who missed the previous bottom and this time there’s lower rates.
Lastly, I don’t use brokers to sell or buy so I can usually talk Buyers down 3% and save 3% when I sell. But that’s risky, better to go with Jim to not get burned. JtR’s commission might be worth it just for the comedy.
Okay, for the doubters;
Use this listing in Cardiff;
http://www.sdlookup.com/Pictures-100067074
Now plug in these numbers to the NY times site:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html
Rent= $3,200
SP= $458K
Down Payment= 10%
Interest= 4.5%
Tax/Insurance= 1.45
Home Price Increase = 7%
Rent Increase = 3%
Whoever does this please send Jim and I a 1% finder fee each.
“Rents are and will be going up too. Not dramatically but definitely enough to be motivational and inspire home ownership.”
Proof please. Also, point me to some of the stupid low deals east of the 5. Better yet, find me something close to Qualcomm where it’s cheaper to rent than buy. Anything closer to the 15 than the 5 doesn’t count.
Genius, maybe you already saw it but look at my post above with a link to nice old ranch style in Cardiff.
I also wasn’t talking about near Qualcomm, more Solana Beach up to Carlsbad. Condos are especially cheap now.
But here is a house in Carmel Valley;
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100056824-12487_Carmel_Cape_San_Diego_CA_92130
Mozart:
I didn’t see your post until I had already submitted mine. That Cardiff house ain’t too bad… needs a little work but beach close and it’s on a monster lot. Are you sure it will rent at $3200? I’ve seen nicer places in LJ / Del Mar rent for significantly less. I rent for under $2500 really close to the beach and I wouldn’t consider my place a dump (although you might).
There are some places in NC SD where I’ll agree that you’re probably better off buying. I just don’t think most of the coast is quite there yet, at least as far as SFRs. I didn’t realize you were including condos in the discussion, sorry for the confusion.
Lastly, I don’t use brokers to sell or buy so I can usually talk Buyers down 3% and save 3% when I sell
It is mythical that going direct enables people to save the commission. The listing agent either keep the full commission himself, or I could have talked them down enough to pay for myself.
But it’s good for the ego to think you get a better deal.
Nothing against Mozart and those who do it, more power to you, but there’s more than comedy going on here.