The rest of the tour, in search of evidence that some squishdown is causing RSF Covenant properties to head towards $1,000,000 – but not finding much. Is it just a matter of time?
Looking For Squish, Part Two
by Jim the Realtor | May 19, 2010 | Jim TV, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Thinking of Buying? | 21 comments
Not sure about RSF, but I’m seeing nicer homes show up in the listings for more reasonable prices. Just yesterday a new listing for LJ came up that was under $700k. Whether it actually sells for less remains to be seen. Also saw a house in CV that I would actually think about if I had the $900k. Anecdotal evidence, but better than nothing.
I don’t remember ever seeing much in RSF for under $1M, even in the 90’s.
The less than $700K La Jolla listing is located directly below the 2007 landslide on Soledad Mtn. Banks don’t like to lend on and insurance companies don’t like to insure properties like that.
Yikes, I should have known. The last sub $700k property I saw there was adjacent to a sinkhole.
That was only one example of the properties I’ve seen showing up in the listings there at lower pricing, but it was the only one I would have considered buying.
Via De La Sombrero….what’s will our counties identity crisis on street names? Did we run out of English words? No American icons, landmarks, or other to call our streets? We can’t stomach the simplicity of a A-Z streets, 1st street on up? I’m sick of these via de la, corte, avenida etc street names.
My area has mid-1990s comps in the $700ks, in the Covenant. This was the bottom of the RE cycle trough, though. Take a comp from 1996/1997, adjust for inflation, and you should have a reasonable “absolute bottom” value of a house in the area. It could overshoot beyond that to the downside as much as the overshoot to the upside, but I think that if it happens, it will be a one-year phenomenon, and such pessimism should correct real quick.
Genius is referring to this one:
There was another one on Desert View, cliff-side, that sat on the market for a year. It was originally listed at $1.1M, then $1M, then $950k, then dropped into the $700s. Lots of sqfootage, but steep dropoffs to your death off the balconies. Maybe you are careful, but Mt. Soledad might buck you and your house off sometime in the future.
You can own the land, but you can’t rebuild on it when that land is all over Interstate 5 one day.
I got your squish right here. Contingent status on day zero, sub $300 on the coast. Glad the indictment made an impact.
I hope that Portage buyer finds out about the couple of dozen lawsuits that have been filed in there….all by individual homeowners so the HOA doesn’t tell buyers about it.
Via De La Sombrero….what’s will our counties identity crisis on street names? Did we run out of English words?
I mean it’s so strange to have these names in a city called San Diego, in an area called La Jolla.
JordanT – good point. We need to rename those too.
“Ron Burgundy: Discovered by the Germans in 1904, they named it San Diego, which of course in German means a whale’s vagina.
Veronica Corningstone: No, there’s no way that’s correct.
Ron Burgundy: I’m sorry, I was trying to impress you. I don’t know what it means. I’ll be honest, I don’t think anyone knows what it means anymore. Scholars maintain that the translation was lost hundreds of years ago.
Veronica Corningstone: Doesn’t it mean Saint Diego?
Ron Burgundy: No. No.
Veronica Corningstone: No, that’s – that’s what it means. Really.
Ron Burgundy: Agree to disagree.”
Get a little credit freeze up in Europe and the US will see a double dip for sure. I’m thinking late summer early fall panic will hit the upper end.
You mentioned the Bridges. Seems like demand is strong there. 7 homes have sold for over $2 mill in the last month or so. I think that’s a great community, but overpriced.
Anyone know if there’s going to be another phase of development at the Bridges? Original plans called for 235-265 homes.
FrsfBuyer – Having done a handfull of custom homes in The Bridges I too am a bit surprised that it has held as strong as it has. My guess is that an exceptionally high % of custom owners have really strong financials and were not financing dependent, thus have not been forced to sell.
One example, of many, is a buyer of mine was paying all cash in 2006 for a $4.2mm home (it was a 5th home!!). I never saw him drive the same car twice.
Another client has been received unsolicited offers on his custom home (about 20) but has zero intentions to ever sell…
It is a great community for the “RSF downsizer”…but not for families with kids!!!
ps: there is another approved phase of lots going in but expect them to be priced VERY HIGH as there are not too many. I’d expect $1.75mm MINIMUM.
This is all profit for the owners so there is zero rush/need to sell at market or in a hurry.
They’ll be extending the road which currently ends at the top of the hill in the ‘estate lots’ area.
Clearfund, thanks for the info. Next phase at the Bridges must be near the 12th hole of the golf course. What is a ballpark figure for the price per square foot to build there? I know it’s dependent on many variables, but what would be an average?
And I have also heard that it’s not kid-friendly, but not sure why. The snootiness of the country club would not necessarily deter me. There must be some down to earth people there. In any case, I’d be looking to buy in a few years, when the kids would be a little older and better behaved. Maybe the timing of the new lots will work out then.
frsfb – For a ‘standard’ rsf custom home in the 5-7k sf range I would broad brush $300/psf for hard const costs (including pool, landscape, contractor fee, etc).
This will get you a very nice home with lots of personalized details, hewned beams, custom tile work.
You can skinny it down towards $200/sf but your exit value would drop at least 1:1 if not more.
Kids: not kid unfriendly due to ‘snooty’ or snobs, its just an empty-nester demographic. Thus kids are very sparse and usually are there visiting the grandparents.
conversely, neighborhoods like Santaluz (not trying to compare the real estate investment) are full of kids and families. The neighborhood is very family focused.
Just for people at two different points in life.
ps: you could also run your budget up to $500-$1000/sf if you wish to go crazy with imported items, fully customized finishes/lighting, etc.
Most clients were building in the $300-$350/sf
JtR, your theory about flight to The Bridges makes sense. Cielo may see the same deal someday, given the quiet, the views, and golf.
Clearfund, I appreciate your comments. Will have to keep them in mind for the future. BTW, I have toured several homes in the Bridges and Rancho Pacifica. Some of these homes did not seem as large as the reported square footage. Are some people including garage space in the SF. These homes had between 3-5 car garages.
Aztec and JtR, would love to hear the theory on the flight to the Bridges. I think Cielo is beautiful as well, but thought that Cielo did not have golf.
FRSFB – My guess is that the homes were likely what the SF says. The larger homes can sometimes not seem as big as you’d think given the very large common rooms/halls which eat up a terrible amount of SF.
Never seen garage SF included in the home, however, I have seen covered loggias/patios tossed into a livable SF.
If the garage was included then the question to ask is whether the SF is “livable SF” or “under roof SF”.
No golf in Cielo, just ‘adjacent’ to the crosby.