Unfortunately we don’t know enough about the homeowners on the foreclosure rolls, other than they aren’t making their payments.  If the government can help them get a loan modification that’ll stick, or they can bargain for a short sale, then we won’t see them on the court house steps in the near future.

How many defaulters could end up on the open market?

Here are the number of SFRs that have a NOD or NOTS filed, the combined number of detached short sales on the MLS (ACT+CONT), and the year-to-date results of the trustee sales conducted:

Town or Area NOD NOTS MLS 2010 REOs 2010 3rd Party Buys 2010 Cancelleds
Carlsbad
130
196
84
20
13
42
Carmel Valley
43
34
29
6
2
5
EncinitasCrdff
60
108
37
16
9
15
La Jolla
29
52
23
3
1
7
RSFDMSB
57
53
29
10
0
7
RB West
47
91
76
4
4
14
Totals
366
534
278
59
29
90

There are 900 properties on the f-list (366+534), and with only 278 of them actively engaged in trying to sell, it leaves roughly 622 houses in question (though there are probably short sale listings that aren’t in default yet).

Will they get a satisfactory loan modification? Or will they be the short-sale or foreclosure candidates over the next few months? Or live under the radar until forced to move?

There have been 252 closed MLS sales, year-to-date, so if all 622 went up for sale over the next few months, I think the market could absorb them.

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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