Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Broker-Associate, Compass
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- 682 S. Coast Hwy 101, Suite #110
Encinitas, CA 92024 - (858) 997-3801 call or text
- klingerealty@gmail.com
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
Looking at all the Corollas and Civics and Camrys, these are average folk trying to buy an affordable house. Still about 40% too high for my money.
Where in CV are these? Who is the builder?
I have to agree with Doug R. Maybe these are a bunch of financially responsible people saving gas money with Civics, but it seems likely that they will soon turn into super home poor families.
Agree with Doug. People are buying these simply because they’re affordable. Doesn’t mean it’s a wise decision, but people are desperate to own in 92130.
I think there’s a bunch of similar size rentals available for $2,200 a month in CV, too. Of course, that would make you a low-life renter; a second-class citizen, societal outcast.
Hey Jim,
Three recent videos have this project on them. But I don’t think you mentioned the actual Name of the project?
6.This one?
http://www.pardeehomes.com/carmel-country-highlands/highlands-village/
The only way this makes sense is if they bought it with zero-down FHA loans.
$2200 in rent gets you an ocean view house in Del Mar, if you’re interested in such things. Still massive demand for 92130 it seems. Why not just go out to PQ where things are a LOT cheaper? Schools?
Thanks for the insight Jim.
It’s very interesting, and I’m still on the sideline wondering how these people who are in the market because they (likely) avoided the crash and have done some homework to determine it’s a good time for them.
According to the US Dept of Housing and Urban Development, the 2009 SD Median Household Income was $74.9k.
Source:
http://sdhc.org/pdfdocs/AreaMedianIncome.pdf
So, just doing some simple math makes this still a headscratcher for me.
$480k for 1274sq ft.
$614k for 2069sq ft.
Let’s just round this number to $80k household income. This means that for the $480k CONDO no less, this puts us at 6x the supposed median income.
I think historically 3x is around the right number, but everyone has unique circumstances, so let’s continue.
At a 100k household income, this puts us at 4.8x.
At a 120k household income, this puts us at 4x.
We could go on, but to what benefit?
Let’s say there are 2 working household members with good jobs to put them at 120k combined or even a bit higher.
At $480k, assuming you have great credit and can get a conventional that requires a 20% down means $96k. Do first time homebuyers really have that plus real estate fees for closing?
Couple that with taxes, insurance, the $330 or so HOA… wow! Is this really possible? Do people in SD that have a $120k combined income want Condo living and this type of an outlay?
It’s great information Jim. Thank you. I’m still eagerly watching, but it’s a real head scratcher for me. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and what’s right for them, but for me, I’m still going to be a Sideline Observer.
PS, I’m a single, potential first time home buyer, and do make the “median household income” by myself, but even with a spouse with a similar income, it just doesn’t seem like a good deal right now.
Please keep your insightful thoughts coming. I appreciate them. Thanks!
Especially amazing when 2br condos in UTC are going in the low 300s – with no Mello-Roos and probably much lower HOAs.
The lenders are going to take a bath on these places if they’re not getting 20% down. Betcha anything that’s you and me via the Dirty FHA.
There will be big down payments here too. The cars? Conservative lifestyle is in – Heck, Rob Dawg drives a Honda!
3X your annual gross income used to be considered a maximum though. When I bought my first house, it was right at that threshold, and I had to talk myself into it based on my income growth potential. Even if your household is clearing $200K/yr, you’re just at that threshold for the $600K model.
Thing is, this is the cost of living in a premium part of the country nowadays. Look at what $600K gets you in NYC. You choose having a big house for cheap (like where I live), or enjoying 70 degree days in January and 11 inches of rain per year.
Maybe there are some empty nesters looking to downsize and eliminate their mortgage payments?
In NYC most people live in rent controlled apartments. In the NYC suburbs homes are less expensive and the median incomes are higher.
As far as empty nesters, I saw a bunch of kids in Jim’s video.
I think it’s the schools that are selling these places.
That’s the only thing I can think of.
These condos will never appreciate in value. They are already 6.5 times median income and median income is not going up any time soon. Is the next buyer going to pay 7 or 8 times median income? These people must have been in a cave with Bin laden and Tiger and have no idea what has gone on the past two years and how to financially evaluate a home purchase. They are going to pay twice what a similar rental would cost and won’t see appreciation for more than 10 years…
Again, I sense those that do not believe people have money. How many of the Civic’s, Camry’s are paid off? That said, I got lost in CV on Friday night and I was going the speed limit if not a bit higher and I was getting passed left and right all over the place. You would think CV is Silicon Valley. Those roads are WIDE.
Medians in CV:
http://homes.point2.com/Neighborhood/US/California/San-Diego-County/Del-Mar/Carmel-Valley-Demographics.aspx
In the above link, you’ll have to click on’92130′ to get the right data.
If you look at the video, you will see at that the buyers were at least 50% Asian (probably higher). They are to a large degree mostly science and engineering types working nearby in Sorrento Valley / La Jolla. So the location is ideal. And to these buyers, school is by far the number one issue.
Kids in this development will be sent to either Sage Canyon or Ocean Air. Both tied for #1 in the county this year, as far as Star scores go. And both schools have large Asian populations.
This development is the ONLY townhouse community zoned to either school. So if you want to go to one of these schools, it’s the least expensive ticket in. And for those who are immigrants, attached homes are no big deal – look at the densities back in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Shanghai.
That’s what is keeping prices up for these units relative to other areas of the county.
I just visited the Pacific Highlands Ranch MANZANITA development. You can get a 3056sf home for $850k. Not bad.
There we’re people everywhere. NOBODY was speaking English. It was either Chinese or Indian. My wife is Chinese and she couldn’t take it. She’s said, “there’s no way I’m living with this many Chinese around me”
ITS ALL ABOUT THE SCHOOLS!
However, I prefer University City.
“Even if your household is clearing $200K/yr, you’re just at that threshold for the $600K model.”
Not only are you at your threshold, you are putting yourself on the edge in a down economy when jobs are not recovering and wages are expected to be flat for a very long time. Very risky. Might be wiser to buy in a less expensive area and consider private schools. Every body’s individual situation is different and each situation really needs some careful thought to decide which is the best and most ration way forward based on the given situation. Employers are becoming more and more loathe to pay the high salaries people require to service student loan debt. Less well educated employees frequently do just as good on the job without carrying the financial burden of enormous student loans. These are some of the social changes on our horizon.
You dorks here are too focused on the “median income” and what people can afford.
In Carmel Valley, people usually have money from overseas. AND- these different cultures don’t blow money like us fat/lazy Americans. They actually save. That’s why you see so many Honda / Toyotas and not Mercedes or BMW’s. They value schools over impressing people that don’t give a crap about you.
And, your bs argument fails too because people have money from there first house investment. Yes, not everyone bought in 2005 or refinanced 16 times to feed their shopping addictions.
My wife is Chinese and I’ve been to China and Taiwan over a dozen times. Mark my words, these cultures are going to run the United States in the next 50 years. Education and hard work is the key to success.
Jack-
You are right. The planned destruction of the dollar is what’s going to keep prices propped up. Don’t be surprised to see Chinese coming in with suitcases full of cash to buy in prime areas. Happened in San Marino in the 80’s and that was before we owed China trillions.
If Obama really wants to reinflate the housing bubble, he’ll offer visas and a path to citizenship to any foreigners who will buy a house. Only foreign capital can prop up this Ponzi scheme now.
“Even if your household is clearing $200K/yr, you’re just at that threshold for the $600K model.”
Those buyers are almost all surely bringing big down payments as has been shown time and time again. I’d agree those cars are also probably all paid off.
Quick fun with your numbers – real rough #s:
$480,000 @ 5% (20% Down) = ~$2,600/mo
Tax, MR, HOA, Insurance = ~$1,000/mo
Tax Return = ~$9,000/yr
Net Annual Cost = ~$34,200
Gross Annual Income: $200,000
I certainly wouldn’t call that living on the edge. Half that income would still be more then doable sans other large expenses.
No car payment, credit card debt, and jeans of the month means there is an extra $1.5 – $2K per month =D
Private school pays off in the middle school years. Parents play a strong part in early years. By high school – private school is generally too late.
So now we’re back to the argument that Asians (from Asia, not here) are going to re-inflate the bubble? People used this same argument back in 2005 and before as support for their theory that home prices wouldn’t drop.
@#8 Sideline Housing Observer
: Let’s say there are 2 working household members
: with good jobs to put them at 120k combined or
: even a bit higher.
: At $480k, assuming you have great credit and can
: get a conventional that requires a 20% down means
: $96k. Do first time homebuyers really have
: that plus real estate fees for closing?
We did; and more even. I don’t see why others can’t.
—
Regarding the other posts about asians, well, we’re asians. We don’t have money from overseas.
Amongst the fellow asians i personally know, none of them have money from overseas. In fact, there’s an outflow of money to assist folks back in our homelands. One thing about us and the asians i know, we all studied hard at universities all over this country. We work hard and we don’t live above our means. Simple as that.
> So now we’re back to the argument that Asians (from Asia, not here) are
> going to re-inflate the bubble? People used this same argument back in
> 2005 and before as support for their theory that home prices wouldn’t
> drop.
I wouldn’t say these Asians buying in CV are bringing big bucks from overseas. These are folks with engineering and mid-management jobs in the biotech and wireless companies. The live, work, and are settled here. They earn their paychecks, save for big down payments, and are willing to pay CV prices to get their kids into the schools.
: $96k. Do first time homebuyers really have
: that plus real estate fees for closing?
We did; and more even. I don’t see why others can’t.
I’ve been reading/posting here a lot for quite a while, but I didn’t know how to broach this subject. I bought a house this month in that price range with 20% down as a first time home buyers.
Want to know how I did it?
Wife drives a paid off 2002 Rav4, I drive a paid off 2001 Civic. We rarely eat out, and when we do nothing expensive. Maybe one expensive meal out a year. We spend money on decent clothes, but nothing designer or anything like that. We rented a small two bedroom apartment while saving. Most of all, we budgeted like crazy and cut down our expenses across the board when we started to save.
Anyways, with a 120K household income that’s clearing about 7K a month after taxes. With 5% interest and 20% down it’s about $2600 a month in PITI. Even without a tax break that’s pretty affordable.
I was Asian in my past life.
“That’s why you see so many Honda / Toyotas and not Mercedes or BMW’s.”
I live (rent) in CV and couldn’t agree less. Everywhere you look there’s an Asian driving an E-class. As for Chinese people moving here and taking over the US, well, I’m not quite ready to bet on a country that only recently learned what capitalism is. It certainly won’t happen by throwing half a million at a time at suburban townhomes. I agree that Asians are generally more conservative, but let’s not get carried away.
As for the townhomes, the fact that we’re even discussing whether or not they’re affordable for $120k+ earners is what kills me about CV. For that income and $96k down, I’d expect not to share walls. Then again, maybe that’s my downfall. Maybe I’ve got a false sense of entitlement. Looking at the stats on CV, it’s a community for the big boys. Still, if my household income is more than half of the zip code’s, I wonder why I’m uncomfortable paying the going price for a house with 4 walls. Either I have a false sense of entitlement, I’m just a stats dork, or CV’s in line for an awakening.
A few points:
-CV Condos? These are townhomes. While you still share walls, for townhomes you own the land underneath you. For some a small difference, but different nonetheless.
– Torrey Hills? These are in Carmel Country Highlands, which is a community in Carmel Valley. Torrey Hills, while it shares a common zip code, is a distinct community with its own planning board, HOA, etc. just as Del Mar Mesa is its own area.
– I’ve lived in TH and CV since 1994 and would totally agree with Jack @ #21.
Edit: Well, upon rereading, I don’t agree with the money coming from overseas. As “Asian in CV” and “I was there” say, hard work, well-paying jobs and a commitment to living beneath your means is what I see all around me. And just because someone drives an E Class doesn’t mean they are not living below their means.
I think it is all about the price point. Anything starting with a 4 in CV will generate some interest.
For people who want the burby experience, CV is still very well-located to employment centers.
As SD fills up, location will become more and more important. And I am not talking about location to the beach but commute times to work.
As for the E-Class comment, 2009 e-class were selling for $15-20K below sticker middle of last year so it may not be the best marker for who is and is not keeping up with the Jones.
Let’s just round this number to $80k household income. This means that for the $480k CONDO no less, this puts us at 6x the supposed median income.
You can’t use median income for all of San Diego, as a basis for buying into one of the heavily desired neighborhoods of the same area. The median income for CV happens to be in the $120K range, one of the wealthiest in San Diego.
I also disagree with the 3X income as a basis for an affordable home. That number doesn’t take into account interest rates or downpayments which can drastically alter that number. Also, as you make more money you can spend a higher percentage of that money on a house since you can spend a lower percentage of that money on other things.
For a 120K income, you’re saying that $360K house is the limit. At today’s interest with 20% down that’s $1,900 PITI, I have not factored in any tax benefits. $120K a year for a married couple clears around $7K a month net after taxes and 401(k). I think that most people can easily live on $5K a month if that doesn’t include a house payment.
“And just because someone drives an E Class doesn’t mean they are not living below their means.”
Agreed. Which means you can’t take everything at face value. While I do believe there are cultural effects on CV’s housing market, I’m not necessarily convinced there’s a superior race of Honda Civic-driving Asians gobbling up townhomes who “are going to run the United States in the next 50 years.” That’s all.
I’m trying to get AWAY from sweeping generalizations here, not encourage them. I sincerely apologize if I come across otherwise.
It is true that Asians desire CV much more than any other communities in SD. I am an Asian and also made a purchase in CV end of last year after spending 2 years hunting for a “right” house in CV. Believe it or not, I think on certain streets in CV have way too many Asian….
Some posters really ought to have taken basic check book balancing in high school. Oops there is no such class. Good thing many parents were able to teach where school left off =D
“For that income and $96k down, I’d expect not to share walls.”
There are plenty of places where the cost of these condos gives you a very nice, large house. My neck of the woods, Riverside, for instance. Closer to Jim’s area, Vista qualifies.
I rent a 2000 sq ft townhome similar to the $600K they are selling not too far from there (about 4-5 miles east but not in CV) for $2250/mth. They are now going for ~$500K and were built about 5 years ago. Don’t think I would ever consider buying one though. Kids will need a backyard to play in someday.
There is usually 100k difference between CV and PQ, not mentioning that caminio del sur has multiple new single family house constructions coming up now.
19, Jack: My wife is Chinese and she couldn’t take it. She’s said, “there’s no way I’m living with this many Chinese around me”
What a shame a Chinese like your wife said. There is no point to marry a woman who hates her own race and culture. I am curious if Jack himself would say the same words.
I came down to SD from bay area.
Asians (especially Chinese and Indian) heavily bought in Cupertino and have made it a notoriously expensive area (similar to Palo Alto I guess). The school district is also a top one.
I think what is happening in Carmel Valley here may be similar, except that CV is already a top district.
Sideline Housing Market Observer,
I think we are looking at 150k and above household income for most of those buyers, if their income depends heavily on paychecks.