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The Spring Kick statistics for North SD County’s Coastal region are likely to be tepid, at best, over the next few months, just because of the low inventory - the quality buys are hard to come by.

But if there was an area that could continue to beat the odds, it’s 92130.

I think most of us figured that Carmel Valley would be at $300/sf by now, but all four of these stats are holding up – why? The strength of the buyer pool is phenomenal, and the amount of cash is mind-boggling. Here are the down payments of the Carmel Valley SFRs closed this year (1/1-2/22):

It’s been like this for months, 77.5% of the buyers have at least 25% down, and 35% used more than 50% down payments. Two thoughts: We’re probably not going to see cascading defaults of recent buyers in the future, when they have invested so much down-payment. Their payments are lower (though not low), and they must feel comfortable with their finances to invest so much up front – they must intend to stay a while. Secondly, we should grapple with the likelihood that real estate in the area has turned into a rich-man’s game….only. We know that homeownership isn’t for everyone, but if these trends continue, buying a house will just be for the elite, at least in 92130.

Are the sellers having to take big hits to sell?  From the tax rolls, here are the same-house-sales data; the amount of price change between the last sale and the most recent (between Jan.1 – Feb. 22):

2002 and before:
+144%,+138%,+113%,+102%,+99%,+83%,+80%,+47%,+34%,+20%,+14% (REO)
2003:
+33%,+28%,+19%,+14%,-4% (REO)
2004:
+9%,+7%,+7%
2005:
-10%, -17% (REO)
2006:
+2%,-4%,-11%,-11%,-12%,-13%,-20%
2007:
+8%,-5%,-12%,-13%,-20% (REO),-22%
2008:
0,-2%,-4%

Will there be enough peak-buyers that either can’t afford their payments, or bail out due to being underwater that we’ll see a significant change in the trend? I think it would have happened by now, but if it’s still coming, we should see more signs in the next few months.

An indicator to watch is the amount of new listings coming on the market. This month isn’t over, but here are the number of February detached listings from 2001 to 2010:

85,70,81,63,70,79,75,73,73,and 69 so far this month.

Levitating, or just beating the odds – either way, it;’s been impressive in Carmel Valley!

The type and method of financing should indicate something about the buyers’ intentions – if they are putting down a boatload of money, they’re probably planning to stay a while. As we’ve seen all year, the big down payments are the preference in North SD County Coastal.

Here’s a check of the last 100 SFR sales in Carlsbad, Encinitas, Cardiff, Solana Beach, Del Mar, and Carmel Valley (omitting RSF and LJ) that occured between November 12th and December 1st:

DOWN PAYMENT AMOUNTS:

0-5%:  12

6-19%:  6

20%:  23

25%:  10

30%:  10

40+%: 26

Cash:  13

Total: 100

Eighty-two percent of the buyers used at least a 20% down, and nearly half (49%) used a down payment of 30% or more.

LOAN TYPES:

VA: 1

FHA:  11

Conv:  75

Cash:  13

You can’t say the govies are carrying the SD North County Coastal market.

OWNER-OCCUPIED vs. NON-OWNER

O/O:  75

N/O/O – local:  18

N/O/O – out of state:  7

Based on their mailing address on the tax rolls.

SELLERS SOLD FOR MORE OR LESS THAN THEY PAID

More: 70

Less:  30

The average drop in price for the 30 who sold for less was $144,000, after throwing out the high and low number.

OF THE 30 THAT LOST, YEAR PURCHASED:

2004:  4

2005:  16

2006:  5

2007:  3

2008:  2

You can’t really say we’re back to 2003 prices currently.

TYPE OF SALE

REO:  9

SS:  11

Reg:  80

It’ll be interesting to see how these split this time next year!