Thanks for the comments this week! For some historical perspective, let's review the recent change in inventory. Bill Clinton signed the new law in 1997 that allowed sellers to take up to $500,000 in tax-free profits, and it set off a local moving spree that lasted...
I somehow didn't hit the Publish button on Monday morning! The pendings are tracking right along where they were during the same time period in each of the last two years - even though there are about 20% more homes for sale today. It sure makes you think that many...
Bill provides a ton of relevant data and it helps show how the real estate trends reflect the human condition - the same things are happening everywhere: I've been thinking that there will be 15% to 20% more inventory this year, but so far the flow has been subdued...
Since October, I've been warning about a surge of inventory coming in 2025. It won't be that obvious to the casual observers, and many won't notice at all. Even the early statistics and/or the actual transacting may mask it somewhat because, who knows? There might be...
My predicted surge in inventory is underway - look at the navy-blue line above. There are 363 active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad today, and once the Super Bowl is out of the way, we should really get rocking. It should easily reach 400 before the end of the...
It never occurs to the experts that higher prices have something to do with the locked-in effect, and that home sellers have to move to where it's much cheaper to make it worth moving. For those who pay cash for their next home, having a 3% mortgage didn't keep them...
Ok, we're rolling now! There are 337 NSDCC active listings today. We didn't hit that number until mid-March last year, and in 2023 we didn't reach that many until mid-May! The number of pendings did rebound but they are still under where they were in the last two...
The number of homes for sale has already exceeded the counts for the same time in 2023 and 2024, and the number of pendings is lower than the previous two years too. The pendings' count has dipped 10% since the start of the year, but it did the same thing last year...
The pendings line is barely noticeable on the graph above because it mirrors the 2024 line closely. The number of pendings dropped because so many sales are closing - there have already been 43 NSDCC closed sales in January, and we should exceed last January's count...
On December 9th, there were 401 active listings bertween La Jolla and Carlsbad. Today there are 298 actives. It would be natural to think that the reason the count dropped so much was that sellers were cancelling their listings in preparation for a new approach in...
