These graphs are updated on the first of the month so these are the latest numbers and they are interactive so you can scroll over to see the individual data.
These are tracking the Coastal North region of SD County. You can see the average and median cost-per-sf is dropping significantly for it being in the prime April-June period.
It’s why I think we are going to muddle through the rest of the year.
Instead, the adjustment will be in the number of sales, as sellers continue hold out on price but fewer homes being worthy of purchase in the eyes of the buyers.
If you think the inventory surge in 2025 was significant, wait ’til next year!
By scanning through your graphs it looks like we’re back to 2022 pricing.
Even if there is rate cuts I’d expect 2026 to do about the same ie go back to 2020/2019 pricing.
We’re starting to hit the “sweet spot” where boomers are end of the road and if theres anything left to inherit its going to get sold off quickly by the kids.
BTW I appreciate you being honest about market conditions. Realtors make money selling houses. Valuations going up or down doesnt matter. Sales just need to keep occurring. Its annoying listening to realtors that are always pushing for prices to go up. Sometimes that doesnt happen, and its ok.
Volume baby. Volume. Do you want 2% on one $2 million sale or 2% on two $1.6 million sales. A 20% drop in prices without a volume drop is a speed bump. However, if your realtor is personally over leveraged and a flipper, yes your realtor will feel some pain. Throw in a divorce or a spousal unemployment and kaboom.
JTR is/appears to be happily married, Donna will not lose her job, and Klinge probably is not a flipper or over leveraged. Smooth sailing for JTR. That’s why he has survived several downturns in real estate. Okay where’s my tip.
I also appreciate JTR’s honesty, which is why I read his blog daily for insights on the current real estate market. I suspect dishonest agents are one the reasons home prices weren’t falling despite high interest rates. When the inventory and days on the market increase substantially, it would be harder to push for higher prices.
Thanks Maryam!
Most agents are inexperienced or lazy and just assume the frenzy was normal.
Not many are deliberately dishonest – they are accidentally dishonest!