In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings come to market in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!
In past Januarys, the guesses spanned a reasonable range and usually the winner was somewhere in the middle of the pack. These were the guesses from last January:
Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January 2024 Listings
142 Anne M
157 Skip
160 doughboy
170 Dale
174 SurfRider
176 LifeIsRadInCbad
180 Kingside
188 Stephanie R.
189 Chris
190 Tom
192 Sara G.
196 Derek
200 Curtis
208 Rob Dawg
210 Bode
213 Shadash
217 Nick
222 Majeed
223 Joe
The final count was 255 listings in January, 2024, which was 14% over the highest guess!
After January, the inventory continued to rise, and there were around +15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year, than there were in 2023.
I mentioned last January:
My theory is that 10% more inventory is easily absorbed and really won’t be that noticeable. It’s when the inventory is growing at 20% or more that buyers may wonder what’s going on – and be tempted to pause, and/or get more picky, if that is possible.
The way it’s going, the 2024 Selling Season should be as hot, or hotter than it was last year!
The +15% was about the ideal increase in inventory because sales were higher too. Will 2025 be the year that we find out how much is too much?
It’s going to be a wild and crazy season – and not just for the Padres!
Leave your guess any time, and officially this contest will begin the first week of the year.
More historical data:
NSDCC January Listings
2018: 427
2019: 420
2020: 355
2021: 302
2022: 233
2023: 207
2024: 255
2025: ?
Before I guess. “New” listings. Does that include relisted after being off market for what 30, 60, 90 days? I ask because I think there’s a number of pulled listings from 2024 that are getting shined and polished for sale this spring after asking for a price not supported by physical condition last year.
If the impending Fed interest rate drop actually percolates to lower mortgage rates we might see even more new listings.
Yes, old listings that have been off-market for 30+ days can come back on as a ‘new’ listing.
And there are tricks to get around the 30 days so many will cancel by December 31st and comne right back on with a 2025 listing number so they look ‘fresh’.
I’ll get a count of how many were relists last January.
Put me down for “211”
303
280
246
267
337
Wow. So many sub 300 estimates. Just saying. 😉
273 (*Wink* Go Dodgers, JtR!)
Wow. So many sub 300 estimates. Just saying. ????
Agree – 300+ is in the bag.
Guessers can resubmit at any time before the cutoff. Cutoff is undetermined at this time.
337
‘natalie’ is that Natalie. Nobody is paying attention like she is – she is making life decisions about being in real estate for the duration!
The mode of the seven year range provided is 317.
That sounds like a winner to me! 317
355
318 – The sub 300 trade is too crowded
307
213
Not a single 4 handle guess? Until now.
421
vs Dodgers August 22-24. Could have playoff repercussions.
Enthusiastic sellers – 353 listings
365 sounds like a winner
328