Mortgage rates have come down 1% in the last few weeks, and the casual observers are hoping it means that the Big Turnaround will commence in the Spring of 2024.

But for a full-fledged frenzy to break out, home prices would have to drop too.

We’ll never learn much from the median sales prices by themselves. But the SP:LP ratios demonstrate the off-season trend of buyers driving harder bargains, which is the solution for lower prices too.

We’re probably not going to see the whole market drop in price (i.e., big dips in the median sales prices) because the superior properties should hold their value better with the impatient buyers.

But those who don’t need the perfect house will likely have better luck next year with getting a deal. We only flirted with an over-list frenzy briefly this year, and in 2024 we not see many, if any, 100% months.

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