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Are we going to get a surge of new listings in the coming months?

Our recent history doesn’t suggest it – the San Diego inventory has been the worst around (thanks Bill):

But let’s consider what used to be normal, and see if we can connect the dots.

NSDCC Number of Listings Between January 1st and June 30th:

Year
Total Number of NSDCC Listings, 1st Half
2017
2,703
2018
2,697
2019
2,708
2020
2,302
2021
2,164

The first-half inventory really hit a groove at 2,700 listings for three years straight. But then the impact from covid struck in 2020, and the listings count was 15% lower than the previous years.

But then 2021 was even worse!

If you remember last year, we did a contest for readers to guess the number of listings in January, and everyone came in much higher than the actual listing count. The final total was 288 (Derek did get tickets).

As it turned out, it was an omen for the inventory all year.

Let’s do it again!  To keep an eye on what will be the #1 predictor on how the spring season will roll out, let’s guess the number of NSDCC listings this month!

The recent history is below – leave your guess in the comment section.

NSDCC Total Number of Listings, Jan 1-31
Year
Total # of Listings
2017
393
2018
426
2019
418
2020
353
2021
288

If there is a baseball season, the winner will get four tickets to a Padres game!  They aren’t front row, but they are pretty good seats:

There may only be a dozen or so guesses, so take part – your chances of winning are good!

My general sense of what will happen, based on the number of January listings:

450 or more listings: Frenzy will be over within 30 days.

400-450 listings: Causes a wait-and-see with some buyers.

300-400 listings: Super-charges the environment to ultra-frenzy conditions!

Under 300 listings: Painfully slow opening to the selling season.

Give it a guess!

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