Sales has been robust over the last couple of months, and the national pending-home-sales index above shows how we’re just making up for lost time. We don’t have a local PHSI, so let’s look at how the NSDCC closed sales for 2020 have compared to last couple of years:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan-Aug:
2018: 1,969
2019: 1,928
2020: 1,841
After six months of Covid-19, we’re only 87 sales behind last year!
I bring it up because the doomer-of-the-century chimed in, and I just wanted to present more-current evidence before reading his take on the 2020 market:
https://www.mhanson.com/9-3-housing-rebounds-recoveries-are-two-very-different-things/
He did mention that we got off to a hot start this year, and it can be attributed to the lower mortgage rates. With the Fed saying they are going to ignore inflation, let’s include ultra-low mortgage rates high on our list of why the 2021 Spring Selling Season will likely be craziest market of all-time!
bought in 2013 @ 4.625%
Re-fi in 2014 @4.125%
Re-fi 2020 @2.75%
that is why the market is bananas. the cost of borrowing large sums of money is really…..really…..cheap
Consider when the time comes to “sell” the “sale” is handled by a lawyer/estate advisor between the siblings. We bought out the sibs a few years ago for several properties.
Then there are “trusts.” Instead of selling the heirs decide to rent $8000/mo and see $1600/mo each forever.
And JtR. You of all people should know 60 is the new 40. I know I’m in better shape than my dad here at 60 than he was at 40. Will there be shrimp at your 70th?
You might be but I sure see a lot of old fat guys walking around…..
Will there be shrimp at your 70th?
Always!
I don’t need every boomer to sell. In fact, all I need is 500 more boomers to sell their house next year, and it will change everything.
We only had 2,835 NSDCC sales in 2019 between La Jolla and Carlsbad, an area of 300,000+ people and whose median age has to be 50+, at least among homeowners.
Having only 500-1,000 more of them sell their house in 2021 seems like a possibility, and I’ll go out on a limb and say a probability.
We had 3,218 NSDCC sales in 2013 and I could barely breathe – I need to rest up! And hire more people!
This is one of the hottest real estate markets that I have seen in San Diego and Southern California going all the way back to 1979 (my memory started then) and mortgages were 18% with negative amortization. Glendale Federal and Coast Savings baby! It is hotter than a pistol now. Don’t ask why, just enjoy the ride.
The pandemic has had a dramatic impact on the market…….in the exact opposite direction i expected.
AGREE! I thought I’d be spending the rest of the year in Jamaica, man!
Thanks Booty!