We’ve never had a soft landing before, but this is how I imagine one would look – mortgage rates drop just enough to have sales and pricing level out:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. Cost-per-sf
Median DOM
2014
173
$985,000
$489/sf
34
2015
196
$1,173,750
$518/sf
38
2016
244
$1,235,908
$531/sf
28
2017
220
$1,208,487
$524/sf
27
2018
197
$1,300,000
$566/sf
29
2019
201
$1,345,000
$569/sf
28

We could have done better (see 2016), but it could have been much worse too. In 2014, when pricing was substantially lower, we only had 173 sales – which goes to show you that pricing isn’t the only component.

Speaking of pricing, the median sales price has rebounded over the last two months instead of tapering off, like it usually does. It’s over $100,000 higher than last November! (Coastal North includes Oceanside):

It looks like an early surge is likely in 2020, after that….who knows?

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