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We’ve never had a soft landing before, but this is how I imagine one would look – mortgage rates drop just enough to have sales and pricing level out:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. Cost-per-sf
Median DOM
2014
173
$985,000
$489/sf
34
2015
196
$1,173,750
$518/sf
38
2016
244
$1,235,908
$531/sf
28
2017
220
$1,208,487
$524/sf
27
2018
197
$1,300,000
$566/sf
29
2019
201
$1,345,000
$569/sf
28

We could have done better (see 2016), but it could have been much worse too. In 2014, when pricing was substantially lower, we only had 173 sales – which goes to show you that pricing isn’t the only component.

It looks like an early surge is likely in 2020, after that….who knows?

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