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The California Association of Realtors predicted that statewide sales in 2018 would increase 1%, and the California median sales price would rise 4.2%.

My guess was for the San Diego County detached-home sales to drop 5%, and the median sales price to rise 5% in 2018. How are we doing?

Here are the detached-home sales and median price for the first nine months of the year in San Diego County:

SD County Detached-Home Sales, January through September

Year
Number of Sales
YoY Change
Median SP
YoY Change
2012
18,648
$375,000
2013
19,385
+4%
$450,804
+20%
2014
16,858
-13%
$497,250
+10%
2015
18,389
+9%
$527,000
+6%
2016
18,192
-1%
$555,000
+5%
2017
18,068
-1%
$600,000
+8%
2018
16,413
-9%
$641,000
+7%

It may seem like the sky is falling, but we should just appreciate how great we’ve had it over the last few years, and accept that we’re going to have fewer sales from now on. Here are the stats for La Jolla-to-Carlsbad:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, January through September

Year
Number of Sales
YoY Change
Median SP
YoY Change
2012
2,322
$825,000
2013
2,554
+10%
$945,000
+15%
2014
2,183
-15%
$1,028,564
+9%
2015
2,405
+10%
$1,085,000
+6%
2016
2,345
-2%
$1,165,000
+7%
2017
2,385
+2%
$1,230,000
+6%
2018
2,161
-9%
$1,320,000
+7%

It’s going to be harder to sell your home.

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