Here is some data to help calibrate the slowdown fears.
These NSDCC detached-home inventory counts are from the first week of April, and the last week of July, plus a look at the closed sales for the first seven months of the year:
| Year | ||||
| 2014 | ||||
| 2015 | ||||
| 2016 | ||||
| 2017 | ||||
| 2018 |
The 2018 numbers don’t look much worse than in recent years. Once the July sales are finalized, this year’s sales count should be close to 1,700.
This is the time of year when the OPTs are stacking up, which makes it look like garbage time, and easier for buyers to go on vacation instead. It also makes it tougher for the decent buys to stand out.
Yeah but what about prices that’s all anyone cares about. Every email update I get from Zillow and Redfin is littered with price reductions. Daily.
Yeah but what about prices that’s all anyone cares about.
Prices go where they go – sales are what indicate the real health of the market, and whether it’s falling apart or not.
As long as sales hold up, then sellers and listing agents know there is demand (and the pendings are the real precursor, and they are holding up too).
The price is the lever to fix the problem.
Are prices going ‘down’? Or were the people who paid the previous prices paying too much? Could be either.
People who thought we were still in a frenzied market and jumped too quick might have paid too much. Or buyers today are paying closer attention to the home’s features, and want them priced correctly.
The gap between the fixers and creampuffs is coming back – it should be around 10%. Those selling fixers have gotten away with selling for prices just under retail because buyers didn’t know the difference, and it looked like a deal, price-wise.
I made the case in the first 45 seconds of this video here, which was taken about five years ago and may never hit the silver screen:
https://vimeo.com/259252972
“The price is the lever to fix the problem.”
That statement applies to a huge number of life’s problems.