Inventory Watch – November

by | Nov 3, 2014 | Inventory

The inventory count isn’t dropping much (-1% this week), and maybe it’s a sign that the participants see it as a year-round market now?

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf
Oct 6
130
$367/sf
48
0sf
Oct 13
131
$378/sf
44
0sf
Oct 20
130
$385/sf
45
0sf
Oct 27
128
$375/sf
48
0sf
Nov 3
128
$371/sf
49
0sf

(more…)

Boomers Upsizing

by | Nov 2, 2014 | Boomers | 5 comments

From MND:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/10312014_aging_housing.asp

An excerpt:

A survey of attitudes toward housing released on Thursday by The Demand Institute indicates that the Baby Boom generation still has no intention of aging gracefully.  In fact, when it comes to housing it appears few intend to yield at all to their advancing years.

The Institute, a nonprofit run by the Conference Board and the Nielson ratings people, surveyed 4,000 households last year in which residents qualified as members of that huge post-war generation born between 1944 and 1963 about their future housing plans.

The survey found that as a group Baby Boomers had a median net worth of $200,000 in 2007 and were on their way to accumulate nearly $370,000 by 2013.  Instead the recession sent many off the rails and at the time of the survey that median net worth was down to a median of $143,000.  Although many Boomers have delayed or modified their plans due to the recession they have, the Institute says, not abandoned them entirely.  Over the next five years it is expected they will spend $1.9 trillion on new home purchases and $500 billion on rent.

Read full story here:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/10312014_aging_housing.asp

Waxman

by | Nov 1, 2014 | About the author | 2 comments

If you are like most middle-aged guys, you are under constant attack – both real and imagined – about whether you still have it or not.

I said something about how I used to keep my car back in the day, and some wondered whether there was any chance I could duplicate the effort. So I waxed my own car for the first time in years, and this is how it turned out:

jtr wax

Lowball Season

by | Nov 1, 2014 | Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Buying? | 2 comments

This is probably the least-likely time to get a lowball offer accepted in the history of the world, due to the lack of pressure on any seller – but for the next 2-3 weeks you might have a sliver of a chance.  Once we get into December, the next selling season will be within sight, so sellers will pack it in – either literally or mentally – and be reluctant to make any deal.  Then they will wait until end of summer before thinking their price might be wrong…again.

I haven’t had any luck lately – so this is just theory.  But these are the things I’m looking for on behalf of buyers looking to make a deal in November:

1.  Vacant houses that have been on the market 2+ months.  They need to be eating a mortgage payment to really be motivated, but anyone sitting on an empty house in November must be avoiding the thought of renting it.

2.  Homes that have been on the market for months – and have a mortgage balance around 70% to 80% of list price.  They don’t want to lower their price because they hope to get a decent chunk out of it, but the payment could be eating them alive.  There is a very small minority of sellers in this category, because banks are so lenient these days.  But those who are barely making their payments to keep their good credit might appreciate any offer at this point.

3.  Homes listed with great agents.  They know the score, and if they just had an offer they might be able to convince a motivated seller to make a deal.

4.  Fixers are prime candidates.  The sellers apparently don’t want to make improvements (or can’t), and you have ample evidence why they should consider a lower offer.

At least nine out of ten sellers and their listing agents will think you are crazy, but it’s worth a try.  To save time, I get the agent on the phone and feel them out first, and listen for any hesitation before they scoff at me.

Sellers shouldn’t take it personal – if you are comfortable just ignore any lowball offers and keep waiting for the market to head your way.  But for those who really want and need to sell, this is your chance to do so – and at least you won’t have to worry about what the market might do in 2015.

P.S. If this is a house you love, don’t risk a lowball offer.  If the sellers get offended, they will sell the house to anyone but you!

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