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When comparing active listings to pendings, we have called a 2:1 ratio ‘normal’.  It goes the same for total listings-to-solds; only half the listings sell in a normal market (which can be an abrupt lesson for sellers to realize that there’s a 50% chance of failure).

This isn’t a perfect measure below because it’s comparing the total listings taken in the same period as the sales closed (between Jan. 1 and July 31) but the sales include some listings from the previous period.  But to be able to gauge this year’s performance, it’s close enough – we’re comparing the ratios.

When the percentage gets around 60%, it’s frenzy time.

NSDCC Detached-homes Sold between January 1st and July 31st, and the Total Listings taken between January 1st and July 31st:

Year
Listings Sold
Listings Taken
Ratio of Solds/Total
2000
1,936
3,203
60%
2001
1,714
3,878
44%
2002
2,252
3,811
59%
2003
2,201
3,590
61%
2004
2,107
3,438
61%
2005
1,829
3,445
53%
2006
1,593
4,081
39%
2007
1,642
3,582
46%
2008
1,238
3,464
36%
2009
1,136
3,339
34%
2010
1,455
3,474
36%
2011
1,512
3,510
43%
2012
1,735
2,950
59%
2013
1,967
3,268
60%
2014
1,686
3,170
53%

We’ve had 14% fewer sales YoY, offset somewhat by 3% fewer listings.

For now, the market appears to be in good health – though our 53% is the same as it was in 2005. Note how the number of total listings tightened in 2003-2005, then popped loose in 2006 – will that happen next year?

Jumbo mortgage rates are in record territory, which should help keep the market alive the rest of the year:

Mortgage rates Aug 15

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