When comparing active listings to pendings, we have called a 2:1 ratio ‘normal’. It goes the same for total listings-to-solds; only half the listings sell in a normal market (which can be an abrupt lesson for sellers to realize that there’s a 50% chance of failure).
This isn’t a perfect measure below because it’s comparing the total listings taken in the same period as the sales closed (between Jan. 1 and July 31) but the sales include some listings from the previous period. But to be able to gauge this year’s performance, it’s close enough – we’re comparing the ratios.
When the percentage gets around 60%, it’s frenzy time.
NSDCC Detached-homes Sold between January 1st and July 31st, and the Total Listings taken between January 1st and July 31st:
We’ve had 14% fewer sales YoY, offset somewhat by 3% fewer listings.
For now, the market appears to be in good health – though our 53% is the same as it was in 2005. Note how the number of total listings tightened in 2003-2005, then popped loose in 2006 – will that happen next year?
Jumbo mortgage rates are in record territory, which should help keep the market alive the rest of the year: