Looking for a break in the frenzy? Keep an eye on the active inventory.
We’ve considered a 2:1 ratio to be a sign of a healthy market.
Since April 29th, the UNDER-$1.2 market has stayed red hot with 87 new listings and 78 new pendings (1.16:1), and the OVER-$1.2 market has been steady with 70 new listings and 43 pendings (1.63:1).
If you see any shift here, then the frenzy may be eroding:
The UNDER-$1,200,000 Market:
| Date | NSDCC Active Listings | Avg. LP/sf | DOM | Avg SF |
| April 29 | ||||
| May 5 | ||||
| May 9 |
The OVER-$1,200,000 Market:
| Date | NSDCC Active Listings | Avg. LP/sf | DOM | Avg SF |
| April 29 | ||||
| May 5 | ||||
| May 9 |
It will take a steady build-up of unsold homes to derail this train – and it’s unlikely that buyers will surrender. Expect more thrills in the near future!
Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on your perspective, I’m in the sub 1.2 million market.
I’m starting to see a few things in my target areas which may allow us “desperate” buyers to catch our collective breaths.
First – WTF!?!? pricing is in full effect for neighborhoods that have had hot activity at the beginning of 2013.
Second – the early birds that sold in Feb/March that got above their asking price has flushed out some inventory as those owners realize that they better cash in now. This has set off a domino effect in certain neighborhoods.
Third – DOM has ticked up from hours to at least a few days. I was throwing out bids sight unseen on Friday and getting turned down by Monday. Now, I can at least wait until the weekend to go look before I get outbid.
No reflection of your representation though.
The one offer that never had a chance was bungled badly by the listing agent, and that is part of the terrain – stuff happens.
Ahem…yes. Agreed, no reflection on my representation. I should point out that we would not have engaged in such Banzai behavior if I didn’t have the utmost confidence in my representation.
I was merely trying to illustrate my point regarding the DOM ticker increasing ever so slightly to allow us the opportunity to at least look before leaping next time.
I agree, it feels like the frenzy-meter is slowing, and I’m surprised that these stats don’t show it yet.
But it must be just nibbling around the edges – I still see crazy-priced listings in prime areas going pending every day.
I think it is the inferior properties that are feeling it….first.
Things definitely seem to be cooling off. Listing prices jumped 10-20% over the past few months pulling more sellers into the market. OPT count is increasing and buyers are now taking a step back toward the fence.
I would disagree. As a potential buyer, my observation is that a lot of sellers are simply testing the waters. They really don’t have a NEED to sell. As a buyer I consider them as OPT, but at the end of day, they don’t buzz for me.
They are either …
– Selling today at the same OPT price for which it has been listed for past 2 years (7080 Cordgrass in Bay Collection)
– Simply taking the listing offline if nobody wants to pay (6723 Barberry Pl).
7095 Heron is another OPT (listed at 1.69M). Let us see what happens with that.
Actual available inventory is actually much smaller if we take the OPTs out of game.
Personally I dont see it getting better for buyers because even the next reasonable seller wants to list at 5-10% higher than the last comparable sale.
I could see how it seems like they are testing the waters but would agents take those listings? But I do agree, take out the OPTs and there isn’t anything left.
House prices in what used to be lower-end neighborhoods are exploding. For example, you can hardly find anything in Mira Mesa listings these days below $300/sf with many pushing $400/sf. Crazy times…