For the daredevil sellers who recognize that this is an ideal time to sell, yet want to wait and see if the market will goose itself higher, what are the indicators to watch?

1. We’ve been tracking the NSDCC active inventory this year, and it hasn’t been growing much – the new listings that are coming on the market are being matched by new pendings. If the active inventory starts to grow, then we know that buyers are hesitating about the pricing.

2. The average-days-on-market is your buyer-desperation index.  How quickly are homes flying off the market?

graph (17)

We have ramped up to warp speed currently, but if this starts to falter, you know that buyers are catching their breath about the pricing.

3.  The number of sales is a great leading indicator, but their close date is actually 30-60 days past the decision date.  New pendings aren’t that reliable either because they can fall-out.

Let’s just compare sales to the same average-days-on-market, and call the difference the desperation gap:

graph (18)

Sales are remarkably higher, and the average DOM is dropping sharply.

Let’s call the current condition the full-tilt boogie!

On a side note, it is refreshing to see that open houses – once the scorn of realtors who thought they were good for nothing – are now being utilized as the most effective way to expose a new listing to the market.

As my Dad would say, “Well, I’ll be darned!”.

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