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I checked the tax rolls by zip code to count the SFRs in our regular North San Diego County Coastal region (La Jolla to Carlsbad).

It showed 67,918 single-family residences.

We have been averaging 200 detached sales each month since 1/1/09 in NSDCC, which works out to be about 3.5% of the total NSDCC housing stock being sold each year. 

For those who worry about the impact of unemployment on the local housing market, consider that we’re only selling 200 houses per month.  There are around 300,000 people who live in the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad region.

Because the tax rolls limits searching to 1,000 properties only, I sorted by the year built to help narrow it down.  Here is how it looks on a graph:

 

You are reading that correctly, the tax rolls show 43 houses built in 2011.  Let’s face it, NSDCC is just about done (there might be 1,000 – 2,000 SFRs left to be built in North SD County Coastal?).  With a finite inventory of houses, and growing population, doesn’t there have to be upward pressure on pricing?  I know these numbers below sound insane, maybe they expect to develop the Ramona-Borrego-El Centro triangle into the Inland Empire 2?  But the rich people will migrate to the coast – whether they come from out-of-area or homegrown:

From 10news.com:

SAN DIEGOThe vision for the San Diego region’s future is slowly coming into focus.

Led by the San Diego Foundation, the $2 million, two-year initiative – “Our Greater San Diego Vision” – aims to come up with a vision for the future of the San Diego area. It hopes to do that by identifying what is needed and asking the public to help set the course.

 A recent survey of local residents was modeled after other similar vision projects around the country.

 “Although people love San Diego, this is the first place where they’ve seen the top issue be a negative issue,” said Mary Ball, the vice president of the San Diego Foundation.

The negative that Ball was referring to was affordability.

New numbers revealed by the research show San Diegans spend about 33 percent of their income on housing.

“People in the San Diego region spend more of their money on housing than any other region in the country,” said Ball.

El Cajon resident Caroline Schiavone told 10News, “I have seven grandchildren and unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll ever be able to live here.”

Those doubts are reinforced by numbers. According to demographers, the population will grow by 1.3 million people in the next four decades mostly from residents’ children and grandchildren. That growth is like adding another city of San Diego. To accommodate the projected growth, the region will need 500,000 jobs and nearly 400,000 homes.

How to adjust to that growth and keep things affordable was one topic of the project’s first public workshop in Santee. Other topics included transportation, education and quality of life issues.

According to the research study, one potential obstacle is public officials.

“People are concerned leaders are not looking regionally for solutions,” said Ball.

The vision project – backed by a steering community of 150 community leaders – will draw heavily on public input.

“If the people of the region speak out, we believe elected officials will pay attention,” said Ball.

For more information on the project, visit ShowYourLoveSD.org.

You can also get more information at these five upcoming workshops:

Sept. 13, 2011
Market Creek Events Center
404 Euclid Ave.
San Diego, CA 92114
6:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.

Sept. 14. 2011
San Diego City Concourse
Copper Room, 202 C. Street
San Diego, CA 92101
9 a.m. to noon

Chula Vista Golf Course
4475 Bonita Rd.
Bonita, CA 91902
6:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.

Sept. 15, 2011
Quantum Learning Network
1938 Avenida Del Oro
Oceanside, CA 92056
1 p.m. to 4 p.m.

CA Center for the Arts
340 North Escondido Blvd.
Escondido, CA 92025
6:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.

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