I checked the tax rolls by zip code to count the SFRs in our regular North San Diego County Coastal region (La Jolla to Carlsbad).
It showed 67,918 single-family residences.
We have been averaging 200 detached sales each month since 1/1/09 in NSDCC, which works out to be about 3.5% of the total NSDCC housing stock being sold each year.
For those who worry about the impact of unemployment on the local housing market, consider that we’re only selling 200 houses per month. There are around 300,000 people who live in the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad region.
Because the tax rolls limits searching to 1,000 properties only, I sorted by the year built to help narrow it down. Here is how it looks on a graph:
You are reading that correctly, the tax rolls show 43 houses built in 2011. Let’s face it, NSDCC is just about done (there might be 1,000 – 2,000 SFRs left to be built in North SD County Coastal?). With a finite inventory of houses, and growing population, doesn’t there have to be upward pressure on pricing? I know these numbers below sound insane, maybe they expect to develop the Ramona-Borrego-El Centro triangle into the Inland Empire 2? But the rich people will migrate to the coast – whether they come from out-of-area or homegrown:
From 10news.com:
SAN DIEGO — The vision for the San Diego region’s future is slowly coming into focus.
Led by the San Diego Foundation, the $2 million, two-year initiative – “Our Greater San Diego Vision” – aims to come up with a vision for the future of the San Diego area. It hopes to do that by identifying what is needed and asking the public to help set the course.
A recent survey of local residents was modeled after other similar vision projects around the country.
“Although people love San Diego, this is the first place where they’ve seen the top issue be a negative issue,” said Mary Ball, the vice president of the San Diego Foundation.
The negative that Ball was referring to was affordability.
New numbers revealed by the research show San Diegans spend about 33 percent of their income on housing.
“People in the San Diego region spend more of their money on housing than any other region in the country,” said Ball.
El Cajon resident Caroline Schiavone told 10News, “I have seven grandchildren and unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll ever be able to live here.”
Those doubts are reinforced by numbers. According to demographers, the population will grow by 1.3 million people in the next four decades mostly from residents’ children and grandchildren. That growth is like adding another city of San Diego. To accommodate the projected growth, the region will need 500,000 jobs and nearly 400,000 homes.
How to adjust to that growth and keep things affordable was one topic of the project’s first public workshop in Santee. Other topics included transportation, education and quality of life issues.
According to the research study, one potential obstacle is public officials.
“People are concerned leaders are not looking regionally for solutions,” said Ball.
The vision project – backed by a steering community of 150 community leaders – will draw heavily on public input.
“If the people of the region speak out, we believe elected officials will pay attention,” said Ball.
For more information on the project, visit ShowYourLoveSD.org.
You can also get more information at these five upcoming workshops:
Sept. 13, 2011
Market Creek Events Center
404 Euclid Ave.
San Diego, CA 92114
6:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.
Sept. 14. 2011
San Diego City Concourse
Copper Room, 202 C. Street
San Diego, CA 92101
9 a.m. to noon
Chula Vista Golf Course
4475 Bonita Rd.
Bonita, CA 91902
6:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.
Sept. 15, 2011
Quantum Learning Network
1938 Avenida Del Oro
Oceanside, CA 92056
1 p.m. to 4 p.m.
CA Center for the Arts
340 North Escondido Blvd.
Escondido, CA 92025
6:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.
Question… Is it truly because NSDCC is done or is it because builders aren’t having any new starts due to the economy? Looking at your graph it looks like the number of starts ebbs and flows with historical bubble cycles.
Great post BTW. You make a compelling argument. Maybe we should just spend that extra 25K and get the purchase over with.
Mostly just based on driving around – I don’t see any big parcels waiting to be built on.
If Pardee was willing to sell the 136 Shaw Lorenz homes under $1.5 they’d sell them out the first month, but they are still waiting. I expect they’ll be looking for $1.5 to $2.0+. There is the build-out of Pacific Highlands Ranch, but we’ve seen Pardee’s preferred product of choice already and it’s the condo-like high density look to keep the price-point down. They will moderate the flow there over the next 2-5 years to ensure max profits.
La Costa Oaks has another couple of hundred to go, but that’ll be it for Carlsbad.
Encinitas, RSF, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Cardiff …….. just infill and onesy-twosy customs.
These people say we need 400,000 homes built over the next 40 years?? Not around here.
“Ramona-Borrego-El Centro triangle into the Inland Empire 2”
Jim:
Is that geographic selection for the “triangle” from a reputable database/info — or your speculation re this? That area seems really, really distant — and without any reasonable highway access.
Clearly, SD has issues re growth in the future. Water is the first issue that comes to mind…what is the projected cost for water in the next 10-20 years in the SD area? I would guess it will be a huge limiting factor in future development.
Great article, however…the SD area, in general, has some huge obstacles for future growth.
Uggh, I hate the everyone wants to live here but there’s no more land argument. It could be right, but this was bubble talk at it’s finest.
It does looks like traditionally home starts have picked up a bit before the bottom of the market was found. Previous low in starts was 1994 and the market bottomed out in 1996-1997 last time. Same kind of thing in the early 1980’s.
Amazing graph, Jim! Buy coastal. Great info, thank you.
dd,
My speculation but I think these people are throwing away $2,000,000 and getting the hopes up for several folks who will trudge down to these seminars to whine about why the government needs to do more to make housing affordable.
It ain’t affordable, and it isn’t going to be affordable when the inventory is finite.
Agreed, no water = no more houses, and you can dream all you want about desal but it won’t create more beach-close real estate. Plus the county just down-zoned all the rural land so less houses per acre in the triangle too.
If they are right about 500,000 people, we should be buying Borrego real estate and inventing deeper/cheaper wells.
I always believed a real shortage is coming to San Diego only.
Water no problem. We have unlimitied desalination if needed.
Stand by on the rush to get a bank deal next year.
BofA September NODs, month-to-date:
SD County: 122
NSDCC: 2
About the same as before. Rats!
I guess we can hope for Camp Pendelton to shut down and a major renewable/fusion energy breakthrough so we can shut down San Onofre. Then we have plenty of beach front real estate and everybody who wants to can live near the beach in SoCal can.
Put a Case Shiller graph over that one and I bet it looks very similar.
The Camp is never going away. Much like the Coronado base will never go away. The Generals and the Admirals love their playgrounds too much. Contrary to popular belief, developers have limited powers. Although that whole Mello-Roos thing was pretty awesome! Also, give them credit for the 1% transaction fees. Who’s campaign chest benefited most from those?
Nevermind that Pendlton & North Island were here long before the vast majority of the population….. Oh yeah, and that pesky national security thing. But hey, screw that, let’s build condos!
Thank providence for Camp Pendleton. Were it not for that buffer, it would be L.A. density from Ventura to Tijuana!
Where is all this projected growth supposed to come from? The “military-industrial complex” is maxed out with two foreign wars and the “war on terror,” young, hip techies prefer living in young, hip, liberal places like the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, Boston and LA, and by now everybody knows that without massive government programs or tricky banking shenanigans housing is not a self-sustaining job creating engine but merely the beneficiary of employment sectors that actually are.
With a third of homes in San Diego County underwater, half of all existing home sales distressed properties and a huge number of boomers set to retire in the next 20 years, don’t we just have to put up our feet, watch some TV and wait for affordability to happen everywhere you can’t see the ocean from?
I have said this and I will say it again. If anyone has ever taken a Planning and Land Use 101 class, it should be no surprise to anyone that if there are talks for SD to expand, it will.
Just watch, Santee will look like central San Diego County on a map in the not too distant future. The 52 was expanded and I am certain the 67 will be too going thorugh the back of Poway into Ramona.
Have any of you been to Alpine lately? They are booming right now in redevelopment. Go out and drive out east and you will see what I am talking about.
The 125 extension was also bought by SANDAG to get to Otay Ranch.
This goes without saying anything west of the 5 and even west of the 15 will be ok over the long haul.
Doesnt anyone remember when Jack Murphy Stadium was considered WAYYYy out there? Heck I remember when Fashion Valley was built and wondered who would actually go to that mall because it was somewhat out of the way.
Progress happens, learn to stay ahead of the curve.
There is something to be said for San Diego continuing to grow. Companies always die eventually, Nations die, but the cities themselves rarely die. San Diego and TJ are more likely to be combined into 1 big city before San Diego itself dies. Granted there’s a water issue out here that many other historical cities don’t have.